IN THE RIGHT SPOT TO WIN THE EBOR: Daqman finds an improving horse for Saturday’s Ebor Handicap, slotted in at the weights right where the stats say he should be. Another York feature this week, the Nunthorpe, sees one horse at big value on BETDAQ.
TODAY: Four bets from DAQMAN with his nap running in the second race at Brighton.
DANEHILL KODIAC STILL IMPROVING
Don’t forget the Ebor. The Voltigeur, the Nunthorpe and the International are claiming the headlines at York this week, but the biggest punt will be in the Ebor Handicap on Saturday.
Though 72 still stand their ground, you can start your form study of the race in the light of some stunning stats (declarations Thursday around 10.30 a.m.).
Five of the last seven winners carried between 9st and 9st 2lb. Five of the last seven – not all the same ones – scored off ratings between 98 and 101.
So, even if top of the handicap Dal Harrald (also in the Lonsdale Cup) and US Army Ranger come out, and the weights rise a pound or two, the ratings focus seems to stay within narrow winning parameters on the stats slide-rule.
Slap bang where the winner comes from 70% of the time are Maleficent Queen and Danehill Kodiac (both currently 9st 1lb off 101), Carntop, Tawdeea and Eye Of The Storm (all 9st off 100).
What’s the betting one of those comes out on top? Well, anything you like at this stage. But the SP of the winner in the decade has included 100-1, 33-1, 25-1 (twice), 20-1, 14-1 and 12-1.
Danehill Kodiac is the interesting one in the stats slot. A big, strong late developer, he made sudden improvement last year. Now aged four, he’s had just one run, one win, bounding up the hill at the July meeting. Acts on any going and needs the Ebor trip now.
Battersea races off 105 but is 5lb lower than when fourth in the race last year. Off 102 is Seamour, 4lb lower than when a close fifth. But, as I say, the weights may change by a pound or two.
NUNTHORPE: Marsha at 11.0 is the value in the BETDAQ ante-post orange for the Nunthorpe, but is single-figure odds, as low as 7-1, with 18 out of 23 bookmakers quoted in Oddschecker.
Lady Aurelia and Battaash are the only horses in front of Marsha on BETDAQ for the Friday York feature.
TINY A TEMPTING NAP
2.30 Brighton Al Ozzdi looks eminently opposable under a penalty. The Simon Crisford trained runner scrambled home over seven furlongs here last time in a bunch finish but may struggle to give the weight away.
Tiny Tempest is the suggested alternative. She ran really well on debut at Epsom when fourth to Sallab over seven furlongs and then probably found the six furlongs at Leicester on the speedy side when fifth next time out. Over the longer trip today we should see an improved run from the Eve Johnson Houghton trained runner.
Trogon was a creditable third at Sandown on debut but then finished a well beaten seventh in a Goodwood maiden where the ground was soft. If the ground was the reason for the poor run you can’t be in a rush to back him again with give in the ground at Brighton today.
4.30 Brighton This Bear Can Fly looks the answer here, the filly has run a couple of good races on the turf course at Lingfield which bodes well for her ability to handle the tricky turns and nuances of the Brighton circuit.
She was four lengths behind the odds-on Working Class when second at Lingfield last time out but it was still a good effort on soft ground.
The visor goes on the frustrating Ocean Temptress who is now 14 without a win but did come her closest yet over similar conditions at Yarmouth last time out when beaten a short head. There’s no guarantee though that the visor will help and it might well simply be a case of exasperation.
4.15 Kempton Plenty of early support about on BETDAQ for the Martin Meade trained Ernststavroblofeld in this class three handicap, despite the three-year-old never running on the all-weather before and remaining on the same 85 mark she’s been well held at in three previous starts.
A safer proposition for me is Sir Titan who does have winning all-weather form and still looks capable of improvement. He was only just pipped on the post at Goodwood last time out.
4.40 Yarmouth This looks the race of the day for me and we don’t know anything about six of the seven runners !!
This fillies maiden is packed full of exciting prospects from top yards on paper including Momentarily and Wild Illusion who both hold Group 1 entries and the John Gosden pair Come With Me and Orchid Lily.
There are two places up for grabs and at around 1.8 on BETDAQ it would be folly to ignore the place chances of the sole horse with experience Give And Take who was only beaten a length on debut at Ascot when starting a 20/1 chance.
Experience will count for plenty and I will be surprised if she doesn’t finish in the first two, despite the exciting prospects competing with her.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked to win 20 points except place bet)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) TINY TEMPEST (2.30 Brighton)
BET 8.3pts win THIS BEAR CAN FLY (4.30 Brighton)
BET 4.2pts win SIR TITAN (4.5 Kempton)
BET 10pts place GIVE AND TAKE (4.40 Yarmouth)
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