DERBY COUNTDOWN: WHERE THE SHOCK WINNERS CAME FROM: Daqman checks out the outsiders’ route to Derby fame after three years without a winning favourite. Fortune Cookies has two in the Derby and two other possible Epsom contenders.
DERBY ABC GUIDE TOMORROW: Don’t miss DAQMAN’S exclusive guide.
BRIGHTON NAP: Three bets for DAQMAN on Tuesday including a NAP at Brighton in the opener.
DERBY ‘DRAGON’ DREAM STILL ALIVE
Favourite layers are on a four-timer. After three winners out of four – Camelot, Australia, Golden Horn – we’ve had three losing Epsom Derby favourites, notably two Ballydoyle bombs!
In fact, the recent history of the Derby market is even more unusual. We hadn’t had a double-figure SP this century. Then, like the proverbial No 6 bus, two came along together: Wings Of Eagles (40-1 in 2017) and then, last year, Masar (16-1).
While Aidan O’Brien was responsible for one of those shocks, the 40-1 strike, he bombed with two favourites, Saxon Warrior at 5-4 on and US Army Ranger at 7-2.
Madhmoon Where did the shock winners come from and are there the same trials indicators for Saturday? Well, Newmarket 2,000 Guineas placed horses have been a good guide. Fourth this year, Madhmoon.
Broome The Ballysax has also been a winning Derby trial, and this year that threw up an eight-lengths winner: Broome.
Sir Dragonet The Chester Vase figures prominently in turning up Derby talent. This year, it produced another eight-lengths runaway, Sir Dragonet.
FORTUNE COOKIES: Sir Dragonet leads the Fortune Cookies charge round Tattenham Corner (we hope). Can he do a Shergar or a Troy and accelerate away from them up the hill, as we saw him do at Chester?
That was my dream turned nightmare when Press rumours said they would not pay a late entry fee. They did. That’s a tip in itself, and the dream’s alive.
Surfman is the Fortune Cookies outsider. That is to say, I put him in the list with the St Leger in mind, after he ran on like a stayer needing a distance of ground when third to Telecaster in the Dante.
If he runs and wins the Derby, it will be a red-faced double, since I put Hermosa in the list for the Oaks and she’s gawn and won the Irish Guineas. Other Fortune Cookies engaged this week:
Elector The Royal Hunt Cup was my target in the Fortune Cookies list and that remains the case for my royal runner. Does he need to go to Epsom on Friday first? Sir Michael Stoute will decide.
Ripp Orf David Elsworth said this one would need a win if he was to get in the Hunt Cup. There’s only a handicap over 7f at Epsom, also on Friday, which fits the bill but he may have fallen between two stools by running in the Victoria Cup (fifth).
LONICERA TO BLOSSOM AT BRIGHTON
2.00 Brighton The opener at Brighton this afternoon looks a very modest event, so much so that Lonicera really does stand out like a shining beacon.
The Henry Candy trained runner is still on the upgrade, unlike her rivals who are, in the main, very exposed.
Lonicera made only limited progress in her first three starts but was a revelation on her handicap debut at Chepstow when chasing home Lady Reset. The step back in trip, booking of Oisin Murphy, similar quick ground and racing off the same mark of 59 are all positives.
Your Mothers’ Eyes was second on the all-weather last time out which was a fair enough run but the form of the Bailey stable (1 win from 33 this season) has to be a concern.
A bigger danger may come from Tarrzan who was a course and distance second last time out. If nothing else, he handles this quirky circuit.
4.40 Leicester Definitely a race to watch with an eye to the future. Platinum Star was the BETDAQ favourite this morning at around 2.36 but his debut at Wolverhampton was fairly modest and he is up against a whole stack of interesting debutants – including stable companion Big City who interestingly sports the Godolphin first colours.
In short, Platinum Star, even with the benefit of a run looks very vulnerable in this company.
Haafel makes plenty of appeal on debut. Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum won this last year and Haafel’s trainer Charlie Hills is red hot at the moment with 7 winners from last 29 runners and 17 from 29 placed !!
8.20 Ayr Addis Ababa was faced with a tough task at York last time out, not only in a tough handicap but over a trip he failed to see out.
He’s back to the same trip that he finished a head second over at Newcastle and he goes well here at Ayr. He made a winning debut here and followed up with a course second in his first two career starts last year. Cheekpieces are tried for the first time and he looks worth another chance.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 20 points)
BET 16.7pts win (nap) LONICERA (2.00 Brighton)
BET 2.5pts win HAAFEL (4.40 Leicester)
BET 12.5pts win ADDIS ABABA (8.20 Ayr)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
