HOW TO WIN AT BIG MEETINGS 1: Offers on the opening race at Cheltenham on BETDAQ this morning add up to only 102%, compared with the 120% (a one-fifth take-out) in the total official SP in each of the last two years.
HOW TO WIN AT BIG MEETINGS 2: Cheltenham, the Grand National, Guineas and Derby… All come within the 100 days of NO COMMISSION if you join BETDAQ now.
YES, IT’S WIN TWICE EVERY TIME! Full stats and facts for the four days of Cheltenham appeared in Daqman a week in advance. Now let’s sort out the winners, and hopefully continue the best bets of the last two days:
WON 10-11 URBAN DANDY (Monday nap)
WON 2-1 SMART DECISION (Sunday nap)
COOLIO DOWN HOT FAVOURITE
CHELTENHAM OPENING DAY: LAYS LOGIC: The favourite has been beaten 13 times out of 14 in the 4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (ex-Boodles), which in the last decade has had winners at 10-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (three times) and 80-1.
* Full stats and facts on all Day-1 races: see last Tuesday.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle) The outright favourite has won only twice in the decade but six winners of the remaining eight races were 6-1 SP or less.
Kopek Des Bordes is a highly-strung free-running sort; and has first-time hood to calm him down a bit before the race and at the start but is still set to lead.
Romeo Coolio would prefer it that way, following a strong pace, but had no choice in the Future Champions at Leopardstown over Christmas, left in front early when Karniquet made a bad mistake.
Karniquet still ran well with the leaders until two out but finished nearly 50 lengths back at the line, yet only 13 lengths behind Kopek Des Bordes in February, also at Leopardstown.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value: 9.4 Romeo Coolio. LAY: 2.03 Kopek Des Bordes
LAYS LOGIC IN THE ARKLE
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) The favourite’s weaknesses here are in his form facts so far and his age.
Five-year-olds had a 4-8 winning spell from 1998 to 2006 but had blanked for nearly 30 years before that and have gone 18 Arkles without scoring since.
Some 15 out of 17 Arkle heroes have won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs, and 11 out of 14 had at least three completed chases.
Majborough has had two and has never raced, hurdles or chase, beyond 2m 1f. His prep wins have looked easy and he beat Touch Me Not at Leopardstown further than did L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown.
But it was a small field going right-handed on soft ground that day and in L’Eau Du Sud’s favour is that he’s already won over fences at Cheltenham in the Arkle Trial (going good).
Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie has won over 2m 4f at Cheltenham so fits the stamina piece of the Arkle jigsaw.
Look for the facial pallor and the bright eyes before the race: I mean on trainer Henderson not the horse; he may have left something to work on here.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value: 5.9 L’Eau Du Sud, 9.6 Jango Baie. LAY: 1.52 Majborough
CREBILLY THE HIDDEN HORSE
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) Daqman kept faith in Famous Bridge and trainer Nicky Richards and it all came good at last in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month.
Now they try to follow dual Ultima winner, Corach Rambler, tipped by Daqman when he won the 2023 Aintree spectacular.
And on their shoulder, hungry for revenge is Lucinda Russell, trainer of Corach Rambler, whose Apple Away was runner-up at Haydock.
Into the attack for her now are Myretown and Whistle Stop Tour. Both have potential but not yet the rating needing.
The big improver, Karate Dori, almost joined the top ratings with a 12lb hike for taking the Kempton Trophy but there’s a McManus ‘hidden horse’ in off a similar mark, Crebilly, second in the Plate last year; unexposed at today’s trip but bred for it.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value: 10 Katate Dori, 11.5 Crebilly, 25 Famous Bridge
FLOWER FLIES OVER FENCES
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) Willie Mullins switches last year’s winner of this, Lossiemouth, from the Champion Hurdle, and stablemate Jade de Grugy is rated 13lb higher than Nicky Henderson’s progressive Joyeuse.
But July Flower, who had good soft-heavy form in France, though won on good to yielding at Leopardstown, is an exceptional jumper, and the Honeysuckle duo of Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore won this twice.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value (win and place): 11.0 (2.54) July Flower
THAT SUPERNAP CONSTITUTION
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) Annie Power and Honeysuckle both won this aged eight, and Constitution Hill (pictured below) might have been on a hat-trick here if he hadn’t handed in a sick note before last year’s race.
State Man stepped up but beat a depleted field, 10lb and more inferior on the ratings, and was twice beaten into a place in the autumn by Brighterdaysahead, albeit giving her the mares’ allowance in both.
Another mare, Golden Ace, got a concession from Brighterdaysahead in the Mares’ Novices last March and turned her over at odds on.
Getting the weight again, Golden Ace beat Burdett Road in the Kingwell at Wincanton last month.
Constitution Hill had Burdett Road nine lengths back when giving Lossiemouth the mares’ allowance in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and looks like regaining his crown.
BILL IS A VIABLE OUTSIDER
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) If there is a gamble here, oppose it: there’s been one successful favourite in 14 years.
For once, the stats are massively against Willie Mullins (0-23) and the man they favour (Gordon Elliottt, four wins) has Wendrock off a vulnerable 11st 12lb.
Total Look and Beyond The Dreams, winner and second over him at Navan in November, are both better off here, and Total Look (now with cheekpieces) was afterwards beaten only a neck in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham.
Beyond The Dreams needs rain and Puturhandstogether has long been aimed at this. Sony Bill, who wore a tongue-tie in France, has it back on today.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value: 9.8 Puturhandstogether, 11.5 Total Look, 16 Sony Bill.
HEY MISTER! TRANSMISSION ON
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup) They’ve spoiled one of my key Grand National races: I used it to back an Aintree winner, second and third but it’s been reduced to 3m 6f and this year it is a handicap and no longer restricted to amateur riders.
But Mister Patrick Mullins, three times winner in seven years, is still in the race. He rides for Neil Mulholland, training in a high gear lately and runs Transmission (BETDAQ 5.8).
Transmission was not at full throttle when runner-up at Cheltenham over shorter in December and is 4lb better with the winner, Haiti Couleurs. Mister Mullins rode him to win at Cheltenham in November
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.20 Cheltenham (win 25)
BET 3pts win and place ROMEO COOLIO
2.00 Cheltenham (win 25)
BET 5pts win L’EAU DU SUD
BET 3pts win JANGO BAIE
2.40 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts each CREBILLY and KATATE DORI
BET 2pts win and place FAMOUS BRIDGE
3.20 Cheltenham (win 25)
BET 2.50 win and place JULY FLOWER
★ 4.00 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win CONSTITUTION HILL
4.40 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.25pts win PUTURHANDSTOGETHER
BET 5pts win TOTAL LOOK
BET 3.25pts win SONY BILL
5.20 Cheltenham (win 25)
BET 5pts win TRANSMISSION
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