SIX SHOOTER! 10-1 AND 8-1 AMONG SIX HOLIDAY HITS FOR DAQMAN: Our tipping king Daqman fired off a barrage of Bank Holiday bullets yesterday and six bets were on target at Bangor, Cartmel, Epsom, Newcastle and the 10-1 winner of the big race of the day, the Ripon Rowels. Total profit 54 points.
WIN: Osteopathic Remedy (WON 10-1) and Captain Bertie (3rd 20-1), same race at Ripon
WIN: Piper Hill (WON 8-1) at Bangor
WIN: Ballybough Gorta (WON 11-4) and Epee Celeste (2nd 8-1), same race at Cartmel
WIN: Soul Magic (WON 5-2) at Cartmel
WIN: Stars Over The Sea (WON 9-4) and Braidley (2nd 5-2), same race at Newcastle
WIN: Breaking The Bank (lay, unplaced 4-1) at Epsom.
SIX SHOOTER! HE BREAKS THE BANK WITH SIX LAYS IN A ROW: Breaking The Bank was bidding for a hat-trick but failed to reach the frame at Epsom and was Daqman’s sixth consecutive successful lay. Total profit 60 points.
WIN: Simenon (Aug 23) 2nd 15-8 favourite
WIN: Pavlosk (Aug 23) 2nd 6-4 favourite
WIN: Parbold (Aug 24) 3rd 11-4 favourite
WIN: Cirrus Des Aigles (Aug 25) unplaced 2-1 favourite
WIN: Astonishing (Aug 25) 2nd 9-4 favourite
WIN: Breaking The Bank (Aug 26) unplaced 4-1
Every punter has to be some kind of Sherlock Holmes. Each horserace is a problem to be solved, and arduous detective work is required in the form book if you are to come up with a result.
Holmes’s famous ‘logical fallacy’ might well be applied to the City Of Ripon Handicap (4.15) this afternoon, in which 21 starters aged six and over have all failed to win in the last eight seasons.
Holmes said: ‘Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.’
In this Case Of The Impossible Winners, what remains is a trio of younger horses: Maven, Triple Eight, Spirit Of Rio. The difference when the punter searches for the truth is that he knows the (im)probabilities. It’s called the BETDAQ betting market.
And it clearly states, witness to the wisdom of those trading in this market, that Triple Eight and Spirit Of Rio are no worse than 4-1 chances, each with a 20% probability.
Maven, on the other hand, is the near-Impossible Winner at 18.5, which means that she has marginally less than a 6% chance of winning.
Maven, a big, heavy-topped filly, will enjoy the easy surface today and is comfortably at home in class 3, whereas Triple Eight has scored in a grade or two lower and Spirit Of Rio is handicapping for the first time after winning his class-5 maiden over course and distance.
Handicap anoraks will say: you don’t need to make class judgments in a race like this because the handicapper weights the horses so that they, theoretically, finish all in a line and this race is just a ‘take’ from his list, the scale raised or lowered according to the quality of the race (with, here, class 3 requiring a top mark of 87).
But, though I cannot be certain that it will happen in this one particular race, my stats over many years hard labour reveal the contrary: class counts for everything in racing and only improvers can climb the class ladder.
St Moritz has won a class 3. He’s won at Ripon. And he’s won with cut in the ground. Hydrant failed when hiked 7lb from a class-5 win to a class-3 race at Ascot (I could warble ‘I told you so.’)
San Cassiano has raced in class 4 or 5 in 13 races since July 2011 and won two of them, both at Ripon, though he clearly prefers firmish ground. Dolphin Rock has similar form but enjoys some cut.
The handicapper thought so little of Full Toss’s Redcar win in a dross class 6 in July that he actually dropped him a pound. Eeny Mac is also a class 5 and 6 winner, now running off his highest mark, and when he put a hat-trick together last summer was racing off 12lb–22lb lower.
What makes this race not so elementary, my dear Watson, is that there are several front-runners: Hydrant, San Cassiano, St Moritz, Dolphin Rock and Full Toss.
So, yet again, Maven, Spirit Of Rio and Triple Eight stand out, with the race seemingly set up for a hold-up horse.
Triple Eight is eliminated because 9lb higher than his last winning mark, and cannot be classed an improver, since he’s been on a similar mark to today’s for two years now.
Spirit Of Rio is the potential improver, with stress on the word ‘potential’ but, for me, St Moritz and Maven are top weights because they deserve to be, St Moritz being particularly interesting, as this is only his fourth race for in-form David O’Meara, who often improves horses switched to him from another stable. Tongue tied for the first time today.
In three of the last five years, the winners have carried 9st 6lb, 9st 9lb and 9st 10lb, and I think that St Moritz (he doesn’t have to lead) at 4.5 is better value than Triple Eight and Spirit Of Rio at around 5.0 or 5.5.
But Maven is clearly all ‘wrong’ at 18.5. This is her first run away from the fast ground she hates since back-to-back seconds in the Spring, both at York, on soft then good.
What should happen now is tailoring your level of stake to fit your chances in this race, or betting on your ‘overs.’ That way you would decide what price you want (say 5-1) and, if you can get 10-1, you increase your stake, accordingly; in this this case, you double it, as if backing two 5-1 shots.
As for Daqman, he bets the BETDAQ offers to a fixed-profit yield of 20 points. Seems simplistic, but it’s useful for followers accounting his results and, such is the value in the orange, he’s usually ahead of the game.
BET 4pts win (nap) GOT TO DANCE (2.15 Epsom)
BET 12pts win PICTURE DEALER and 2.5pts win BALDEMAR (2.50 Epsom)
BET 6.6pts win ST MORITZ, and 1.1pts win and place MAVEN (4.15 Ripon)
BET 5.4pts win FANTASY IN BLUE (4.30 Epsom)
BET 4.2pts win GENEROUS DREAM (5.15 Ripon)
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