10-1 AND 20-1 WINNINGS IN THE CUP: Daqman landed winner and fourth in this morning’s Melbourne Cup – Almandin (WON 10-1 from 13.0 on BETDAQ) and Qewy (4th 20-1 from 27.0) – to make more than 56 points profit from bull’s-eye bets in the one race.
THAT’S THE 80 FLAT RETURNS UP! In fact, it was his only race of yesterday’s selections because his business at Kempton was abandoned. The Cup returns took him past 80 in this season’s feature-race challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post. The scores are now Daqman 81, Pricewise 39.
BIG VALUE ON BETDAQ FOR GOLD: Today they clash in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, for which the 102% BETDAQ overround allows Daqman two chances against the favourite.
A LONG YEAR AHEAD FOR HEARTBREAK
I couldn’t get Heartbreak City’s improvement out of my mind. In the end, I left him out of my three, and landed winner, fourth and eighth, with Almandin, Qewy and Exospheric.
But, knowing trainer Tony Martin’s ability, I’d rather back City now for the Cup at Flemington next November than Churchill for the Guineas at Newmarket in May! It will be a long year’s wait.
But it seemed like heartbreak from the start this morning because he was drawn 23 – which is why I left him out – but high numbers won the day and the jockeyship of the first two home was exceptional, the verdict going to Almandin by a head.
Winning horse and rider (Kerrin McEvoy) had been red hot in the run up to the race, the horse taking a late win-and-you’re-in chance in the Bart Cummings Handicap on the Cup course.
And the jockey had been on fire throughout the Spring carnivals in Bendigo, Geelong, Moonee Valley and Flemington with eight Group wins before choosing the right one for the Melbourne Cup from several successful trialists, including Qewy.
Heartbreak City’s narrow defeat is one in a long series of near misses for English and Irish raiders, the exception being Dermot Weld’s Media Puzzle (2002). Eight seconds and six thirds in 18 years includes three seconds for Red Cadeaux and two thirds for Persian Punch.
For Heartbreak City to crack the Melbourne-enigma code, he’d need to break another record as the first seven-year-old winner since the magical Makybe Diva. But that one was coming back for a third year running!
VALENTINO’S DAY FOR EXETER GOLD
2.20 Exeter (Haldon Gold Cup) Cue Card and God’s Own won this as six-year-olds and seven of the nine most recent winners have been aged six or seven.
Apart from the bare form, you have to factor in the going (pretty fast) and the time of year (some horses are just prepping for later on).
And trainerform would worry me concerning Dresden (Henry Oliver 0-6 in the last two weeks; 1-10 with his chasers this season) and Purple ‘N Gold (David Pipe 2-23 in 12 days).
Pipe’s beast hasn’t won since May when he landed the trainer’s 1,000th winner, but he’s been in the first four eight times out of 11 and the handicapper won’t let go of him.
Garde La Victoire returned in the Welsh Champion Hurdle after falling twice over fences; one-time Champion Chase winner, Dodging Bullets, has not been the safest conveyance himself since returning from injury and hasn’t scored for 20 months. But he’s down in the weights for his first handicap.
Pain Au Chocolat needs soft ground, and Presenting Arms is nine now and has become a bridesmaid since back-to-back success a year or so ago, with form figures of 322322 and one ‘ran out’.
Ultragold might have won first run back two years running but for tripping up when he had a Cheltenham race won.
If you leave Cheltenham and heavy ground out of the equation, Ultragold is 1041012 in the last two years and had a solid run back (at Cheltenham) recently.
The other one to consider is Sir Valentino. Four of his wins have come between November and January, before he ran away with a chase at Market Rasen in May after more than three months off, so goes well fresh.
Trainer Tom George is thereabouts almost every time at the moment with figures of 3213120. If you delete trips longer than 2m 3f, Sir Valentino is 1110201 in the last year and, along with Garde La Victoire is the right age.
Sir Valentino at 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning, and Ultragold at 13.5, give me two against the field at the right end of the handicap with combined odds still far better than Garde La Victoire’s 2.78.
2.40 Redcar A dual winner in class 2 on the soft, Storm Rock can return to form for this drop in grade. It’s Harry Dunlop’s first runner at Redcar, a 512-mile round trip from his Lambourn base, and 7.2 on BETDAQ this morning rocks!
7.10 Kempton Tailwind beat Mazzini here 11 months back in a maiden and they seem to have this prize between them.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except the nap)
BET 2pts win and place on each SIR VALENTINO and ULTRAGOLD (2.20 Exeter)
BET (napped to win 30 points) 5pts win and place STORM ROCK (2.40 Redcar)
BET 9pts win MAZZINI and 2pts win (stakes saver) TAILWIND (7.10 Kempton)
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