LUCKY 13 NAPS THIS YEAR ALREADY: Daqman yesterday made it nap number 13 in 2017 so far (56% strike rate) for a total profit of 206.41 to 20-point stakes with Cajmere (WON 4-7), which was odds against in most morning books, not even favourite. He doubled Cajmere with Whizzzey Rascal (WON 11-8).
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: Daqman is also 35 points ahead of Pricewise of the Racing Post, 10-4 up for the season. Today and tomorrow they clash, not with tips but with the same Cheltenham previews, Daqman with his series See How They Won, comparing races and ratings of winners in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
THE YOUNG BLOODS ARE SUPREME
It’s not a harvest moon for punters. Only once since 1989 (and that was Like-A-Butterfly in 2002) has an eight-year-old, like the favourite, Moon Racer, won the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Others at the front of the market are also the ‘wrong’ age.
Willie Mullins, who has 20 entries, has four in the top ratings for the ever-more prestigious opening race of the Cheltenham festival in March.
Willie has won it five times since 1995; then it’s Noel Meade and Paul Nicholls with two apiece. Ruby Walsh rode two for Nicholls, three for Mullins, including the redoubtable Douvan (2015).
AGE NEGATIVE: There have been 16 winners since 1995 aged five or six, which is a black mark for Moon Racer (aged 8), Airlie Beach (aged 7), Defi Du Seuil and Charli Parcs (both only 4)
RACE ACES: Six winners came to the race with two, three or four consecutive wins to their name.
Six raced in January or February, so there is still time for a champion to emerge, but only one started his career in the same year.
RATING: The event is now a stone better race than in the early part of the century. Before 2012, the race had been won three times in five years off 142 but the last three winners lined up on 155. This year’s top ratings, official or on my assessment of collateral form, are at this stage:
155 Defi Du Seuil (five wins in a row) Philip Hobbs
151 Neon Wolf (hat-trick) Harry Fry
149 Finians Oscar (two out of two) Colin Tizzard
146 Any Second Now (two out of two) Ted Walsh
146 Saturnas (three out of four) Willie Mullins
144 Crack Mome (two out of three) Willie Mullins
142 Blow By Blow (hat-trick) Gordon Elliott
141 Airlie Beach (seven out of seven) Willie Mullins
141 Moon Racer (five out of six) David Pipe
140 Consul De Thaix (no wins) Nicky Henderson
140 High Bridge (four out of six) Ben Pauling
139 Bunk Off Early (one run, one win) Willie Mullins
136 Charlie Parcs (two out of two) Nicky Henderson
KEY RACES: The Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle at Punchestown is a modern key race (won by Vautour and Douvan); winner this year was Any Second Now.
But look out for the Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown on February 12, which has thrown up Supreme heroes Champagne Flyer and Vautour in recent years.
TOUGH TAGRITA RATES THE NAP
2.20 Leicester Paul Nicholls is 3-5 at Leicester, 100% when Sam Twiston-Davies rides, and Tagrita is the toughest mare you’ll ever wish to see.
She was able to drop back to only a furlong or so above the minimum at Exeter but showed her versatility to make it 2-2 over fences.
Back up in trip today, she faces the Market Rasen duellists La Vaticane and Desert Queen, with front-running Desert Queen now giving 10lb to David Pipe’s grey mare under the conditions of this race.
Pipe has a terrific record at Leicester but La Vaticane was dropped in grade to win on the last day and is now back to Listed class here. Tagrita is offered at 4.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.30 Wetherby Sue Smith is having a fine season with her stayers, and she has Swing Hard, an 8.4 offer on BETDAQ early mouse, back down to a winning mark. Ignore his first-run-back flop when the ground at Hexham was a bog.
Dream Flyer won over a furlong further here on the last day but is so in and out he has never before put two good runs together.
Fingeronetheswitch is 18lb lower over fences than his hurdles mark but that’s because he has never won a chase, albeit aimed high once or twice (including a Listed).
3.10 Southwell Encore d’Or is dropped in grade to the level of his back-to-back wins last Spring but has already improved on those at a higher rating by taking a class 2 at Chelmsford in November after being gelded.
Could go on to better things now and, with the Cowell-Fanning combo winning at the last Southwell meeting on Thursday, he should go well at 3.8 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
3.40 Southwell Keith Dalgleish has had four winners in the last week and Tommy Docc (9.8 best offers) is another one down in grade since back-to-back wins as a three-year-old, including the Edinburgh Cup under today’s pilot, Philip Makin.
Tommy Docc won at Southwell as a juvenile and Dalgleish shows a 21-point level-stakes profit at Southwell (22% strike rate), which suggests that there have been good-odds winners here from his ranks.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 for strength; 10 points would be a banker)
BACK 7pts win (nap) TAGRITA (2.20 Leicester)
BACK 3pts win and place SWING HARD (2.30 Wetherby)
BACK 6pts win ENCORE D’OR (3.10 Southwell)
BACK 2pts win and place TOMMY DOCC (3.40 Southwell)
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