NATIONAL WEIGHTS UP: The weights are heading up after Hewick (allotted top weight of 11st 12lb) has been switched to the Aintree Bowl.
BET AGAINST BIG YARDS AT DONCASTER: Irish Lincolnshire winner Chazzesmee could be sent over to Doncaster for the Lincoln Handicap on Saturday but the stats show that Irish raiders and top English trainers alike fall to the dominant locals at this opening meeting of the season.
TODAY: Daqman seeks out value – it comes in many forms and today could be around a 12-year-old at around 20/1.
HEWICK MISSES THE NATIONAL
⭕ GRAND NATIONAL: Bad news for previous winners of stature: weights for Corach Rambler (2023), Noble Yeats (2023) et al will go up, after Hewick – set top spot of 11st 12lb – was switched to the Aintree Bowl.
It also starts the annual debate, ‘who will get in’, as punters try to find their ante-post bet.
Conflated is now the likely top weight for Gordon Elliott, who is left with 12 certain to get in, then two or three on the edge. Noble Yeats and Nassalam come after Conflated.
MICHAEL APPLEBY IN TOP FORM
GIVE THE LITTLE MAN A CHANCE! That is so often the cry after a Royal Ascot or a Cheltenham Festival has sent prizemoney millions winging to champion trainers like Willie Mullins or Aidan O’Brien.
Last year’s start of the Flat promised to be the same old story with top trainers Andrew Balding, William Haggas (both on 28%) and Team Gosden (27%) sharing 42 AW races in the run-up to the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster, seemingly sure to give a drubbing to the small-time trainers when the turf season kicked off.
But there was one new name. Rutland trainer Michael Appleby scored 41 wins on his own account, and this year he’s on 25, second only to another new yard at the top, Tony Carroll on 28, with Charlie Johnston 21.
And at the two-day Lincoln Handicap meeting at Doncaster last year only Team Gosden got on the score sheet, with the rest going to:
Charlie Fellowes (2), Lucinda Russell (2), followed by one each for Liam Bailey, Robyn Brisland, Tony Coyle, David Evans, Roger Fell, Dominic French-Davies, David Menuisier, Neil Mulholland, Kevin Ryan and Pam Sly.
Aidan O’Brien was off the mark on Day One in Ireland yesterday with Brilliant, and the usual early birds, Noel Meade and Fozzy Stack (Irish Lincolnshire), also scored.
Stack will see how his Irish Lincoln winner, Chazzesmee, eats up this morning and whether he canters clean limbed in the next couple of days before deciding later in the week whether to attempt a Lincoln Handicap double at Doncaster on Saturday.
Simon and Ed Crisford have the favourite, Awaal. They also run Knight in the Doncaster Mile earlier on the Saturday card.
DON’T DESERT FORTUNE
⭕ 4.00 Exeter today Desert Fortune doesn’t have too many miles on the clock for a seven-year-old and shaped with considerable promise on his reappearance after a near year long break when finishing second at Leicester last month.
He put 30 lengths and 12 lengths back to the third and fourth and off the same mark can build on that effort on similar soft ground.
I know first time blinkers can be a positive but the market is surely expecting Harry Potter to be involved too given the short price of Cloudy Flamingo who has been beaten 60, 41, 87 and 26 lengths in his last four races. Not for me!
COULD BE MORE FROM OLIVER
⭕ 4.15 Wetherby Micky Hammond has his stable in good form but I have to take on his Fainche (0-22) at the top of the market for this three mile handicap hurdle.
She started favourite at Carlisle last time out and looked set to win before being claimed close home and the handicapper has now pushed her up 3lb. I never like backing horses who are up in the weights on the back of being beaten and will swerve her today despite Brian Hughes riding the mare for the first time.
She could win by default as most of her rivals are in sketchy form and that’s putting it politely. Just Jess has been pulled up and beaten 35 lengths in her last two races whilst Mister Barclay (0-9) is an unknown quantity at this distance.
Further down the market Kinder Kid is also up in distance after a reasonable finish here last time out but didn’t jump well.
I thought Oliver’s Island was massively over-priced. At the grand old age of 12 he won’t be improving but might not need to either. His latest placed efforts read well in the context of this race I will stake for a WIN 20/WIN 10 return in Betdaq’s win and place markets.
EYES ON SPANISH
⭕ 5.30 Wolverhampton For the second night running we have an all-weather ‘rider-restricted’ card which I think is a positive innovation in that it gives chances to jockeys who are struggling to get rides and wins under normal conditions.
Lady Of Spain looks a standout in the first – my only worry was the price but I was pleasantly surprised to see her hovering around 1.91 on the Betdaq Betting Exchange morning show which looks on the right side of value to my eyes.
The Roger Varian trained filly was hugely impressive over course and distance in December and is taken to defy her resulting 5lb penalty in this.
The fact that some of the bigger Newmarket yards have runners is keeping her price honest but she sets the bar at a very decent level for them to aim at.
The Gosden’s debutant King’s Coronation wasn’t especially strong in the early market and has no fancy entries yet, Approval was well beaten on debut for William Haggas and will need to show plenty more.
Biggest danger could come from one at bigger prices. Archie Watson’s Operate was desperately weak in the market ahead of his debut at Kempton but showed plenty of promise in fourth and should improve. It also looked a decent contest at Kempton. Interestingly he also holds an entry on the turf in Ireland on Monday at Gowran.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.00 Exeter (win 10)
BET 2.8pts win DESERT FORTUNE
4.15 Wetherby (staked to win 20 points on win bet and 10 on place bet)
BET 1.0pt win and 3.0pts place OLIVERS ISLAND
5.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 11.0pts win LADY OF SPAIN
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