BIG-RACE PREVIEWS FOR NEWMARKET: Daqman today starts his previews of the next two weekends at Newmarket, with the Sun Chariot Stakes on Saturday and the Cesarewitch a week later. His target will be Hidden Horses.
TODAY: Daqman has bets in four races on Wednesday including a NAP at Catterick. And why IF is a big word in racing.
JOY IS A BIG-RACE HIDDEN HORSE
🏇 HIDDEN HORSES! After the resounding success of Fortune Cookies this season – from Paddington to Ace Impact – we have turned to two-year-olds and devising a ratings list which will give you Group-1 winners for the rest of the campaign.
They will also become the top three-year-olds of 2024. Last year’s leaders on the final list at the end of the 2022 season for 2023 were Auguste Rodin, Chaldean and Little Big Bear. Say no more.
You saw yesterday how this year’s 2yo list is shaping up. Meanwhile, Daqman hasn’t forgotten a promise to bring back Hidden Horses, specifically those with class dropped down the rankings and those lightly raced with plans for an end-of-season ‘job’.
Some we will warn you about in advance, as we did when Great White Shark was gambled on and won the 2020 Cesarewitch for Willie Mullins.
The Shark had been put away for the race after taking a big-field hurdle at the Galway races in July of that year.
The six-year-old was backed down to 9-2 favourite and completed a hat-trick in the race for the Mullins stable.
Willie created Cesarewitch form figures of 1112 when Burning Victory was second of 32 in the 2021 renewal but he was out of the frame altogether last year.
Fourth in a big-field Flat handicap at the Galway Festival that July was Lot Of Joy, having his first run for Mullins, as a dual winner in Scandinavian.
He was third in the Irish Cesarewitch before taking the hurdles route for top-level novices.
That didn’t work out and he was back at Galway on the Flat this summer before targeting the Newmarket Cesarewitch with 9st 2lb., the same weight as Willie’s first Cesarewitch winner of the hat-trick who, yes you’ve guessed it, left his hurdles career to run in – and win – a handicap at the Galway Festival.
IF – NOT WHEN
⭕ 3.50 Catterick If. For a two letter word it’s very powerful – little wonder that Rudyard Kipling wrote his famous poem with the same subject.
It also applies daily to horse racing and punting. And so it should. If (I’ve done it again) you back a loser you should try and evaluate what went wrong. Was it the wrong choice, was it the right choice but unlucky or was it a race that you should’t have even played in?
It’s not always binary and sometimes there is no definite answer but you never stop learning in this game and winners, as well as losers, need to be evaluated to help you make your next moves.
We have an ‘if’ situation here at Catterick for this class 4 seven furlong handicap. If you ignore the last run of Ice Max then he looks a solid bet and even overpriced on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
I’m always willing to forgive a bad run – especially when it comes earlier in a horses career. After a promising Haydock debut, Ice Max was an impressive maiden winner over course and distance here and you can’t really blame connections for getting excited and pitching in the deep end for the Listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster where he ended up beating two home and was 14 lengths adrift.
The soft ground may well have turned against him that day and my instinct is to simply put a line through that piece of form. For the sake of argument, let’s call this just his third start so further improvement can easily be anticipated.
It’s a trappy looking handicap but none of his four rivals appeal as much with their own question marks:
Noo Point (best runs so far have come with firm in the description), Charged Up (consistent but form looking exposed), Bellarchi (won three in a row including over five furlongs here but now paying the price with the handicapper) and Empire Of Light (regressed significantly since his Newmarket win July including being beaten 60 lengths at Windsor without any obvious explanation.)
LOSING THE FAITH
⭕ 5.12 Nottingham Heavy ground is forecast at Nottingham and that is likely to halt the progress of hat-trick seeking I Still Have Faith who has been going great guns winning four of his last six races and contributing to the excellent recent strike-rate of trainer Ben Brookhouse (5 winners from his last 10 runners).
I Still Have Faith has only encountered heavy ground once before and was beaten 17 lengths at Goodwood and in order to continue his winning run now needs to do so off a career high mark of 81.
It might be best left to those with proven form in the ground.
Hugo Palmer’s Navarre Express is another one representing a stable in good recent form. The filly relished soft ground at Ffos Las last time out winning by five and a half lengths.
The Godolphin runner Dubai Souq does seem to save his best form to when there is give in the ground and is steadily dropping down the weights.
I will take the pair over I Still Have Faith.
⭕ 6.30 Kempton Mischief Magic appeals in the class 2 feature as he returns to the venue where he won the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes as a two-year-old over the same six furlong trip.
He famously went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland and whilst his form this year has fallen short (8th in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot when last seen) he should really be taking this apart if anything like near his best. The stable are in cracking form.
⭕ 8.30 Kempton I’m also having a small bet in the nightcap.
Lion Ring remains a 0-33 maiden and has spurned better chances. It remains to be seen whether the first time blinkers conjure an improvement.
Gherkin goes well here but comes into this on the back of a disappointing effort and also has a poor draw.
I’ll take a small chance with Magicinthemaking at double figure odds. She goes well here, is best drawn of all in 1 and might be freshened up after her recent break.
3.50 Catterick (win 10, nap)
7.1pts win ICE MAX
5.12 Nottingham (both win 10)
3.6pts win NAVARRE EXPRESS
3.1pts win DUBAI SOUQ
6.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 6.3pts win MISCHIEF MAGIC
8.30 Kempton (win 20)
BET 1.5pts win MAGICINTHEMAKING
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.