CLASSIC HOPES HIGH AND STALLS LOW AT CHESTER: Is there another Enable lurking in the Classic trials? Will the low draw be decisive, as in six of seven races on this day last year? Those are the question marks tackled by Daqman as he analyses the first day of the May meeting on the helter-skelter track called the Roodeye.
DAQMAN’S DAY STARTS 66 POINTS UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman’s targets this season include a 10th consecutive defeat of Pricewise in their clash of value tips in the same feature races. He is currently 16-5 up and 66 points clear to a single-unit level stake (Daqman +12.00, Pricewise –54.25).
THE DRAW KICKS IN AT CHESTER
Do you make money at this time of year? I know a man who does. In fact, this is his favourite time. First he backs the strugglers in the Premier League to beat the big boys whose position in next year’s super leagues is safe.
So he’s opposed Man City, Man U, Tottenham.. in total, he’s just had five winning soccer bets out of seven.
Then he turns to Chester May meeting and backs stalls 1, 2 and 3 in each race. Last year’s winners by draw on the opening day were: 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 8.
So he had six winners out of seven races for six winning bets and 15 losers, with the SPs 4-1, 2-1, 2-1, 5-2, 2-1, 11-4, for a single-unit level-stakes profit of 2.75 or an ROI of 113% at SP, probably much better odds earlier in the day, particularly on punter-friendly BETDAQ.
What his staking plan was he would not reveal, but I can tell you he made a lot more than 2.75 in sterling, euros, old punts or bottletops.
1.50 Chester (Lily Agnes Stakes) Stalls 2 to 5 have won eight of the 10 races in the decade, but you might have to include gate 6, since the filly drawn 3, is out and there’s an empty space between 2 and 4, which will quickly be utilised.
Unfortunately, in this age of multiple entries, three runners of the remaining 10 are for the local stable of Tom Dascombe, training 15 miles away at Malpas. My first thought was: It’s mal. Pass.
But, though not well drawn at Kempton, 5.2 BETDAQ offer Lihou cosily beat Kinks before that one won back to back, and trainer David Evans is bullish
SHAHEREZADA UNRAVELS TRIAL..
2.25 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) I put up Kinaesthesia for this in my Classic-trials preview, because Ralph Beckett almost always has a good filly for Chester or Lingfield this week, but she’s got the worst of the draw here in stall 9.
Eight out of 10 winners came from stalls 2 to 6, among them of course the brilliant Enable, this column’s flagship of last season.
Her stable, John Gosden’s, is back with Award Winning (gate 5) but we have an Aidan O’Brien trio – he’s won this five times in the decade – with Magic Wand in the one stall and Forever Together (in 3), both well drawn, and with Dramatically having the benefit of an outing.
Dramatically ran in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, in which was hidden the 1,000 Guineas winner, making such an impression that she started 66-1 for her Classic success! Such are the ways of filly form at this time of year.
Though the O’Brien mob will be hard to beat, morning showers will have helped Shaherezada, bred for the trip, and held in high regard by her new trainer, Roger Varian. A bit of 9.0 win and place on BETDAQ.
3.00 Chester Three more Dascombe warriors here, a strong top-weight in Spoof, and an improver, Looks A Million, in the one stall.
But spot the overnight gamble in this one, Showmethedough (4.8 on BETDAQ best), who was put right in a reappearance run at Thirsk with the intention of taking this for Dr Marwan Koukash.
O’BRIEN HAS HORN OF PLENTY
3.35 Chester (Chester Vase) Every single winner of this in the decade came out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but there were sometimes small fields.
Derby heroes Treasure Beach (the Curragh) and Ruler of The World (Epsom) have won it since 2011, both for Aidan O’Brien, who is six out of nine in the race.
Tom Dascombe plays an ace this time, with Proschema a guaranteed stayer, but is likely to be trumped by one of the three picture cards of O’Brien’s.
All could hinge on the form of the Sandown Classic Trial, won by Dante player Sevenna Star (Gosden) from Ispolini (Charlie Appleby) and Hunting Horn (O’Brien), both placers said to have come on at home since, and both drawn in the low three stalls.
Ryan Moore picks Hunting Horn (BETDAQ 3.9), and O’Brien has already kicked Charlie’s Masar into touch in the Guineas.
Expect improvement from Young Rascal, whose sire, Intello, won the French Derby, which will be his aim, too, no doubt. Very well supported this morning.
CHEERFILLY FOR THE FINISH..
4.05 Chester John Gosden (3) and Sir Michael Stoute (2) have dominated this maiden, with the punter’s godsend seemingly having the stalls edge for 2.7 favourite Argentello in gate 3, while Stoutie’s Baritone is out in the castle-wall car-park in 10.
5.05 Chester How have you done so far? I’ll tell you the top three drawn in the final contest. Those of a nervous disposition, look away now.
In the one stall, Intransigent: not won since 2012. Drawn two, Sultan Baybars: not won on turf, and failed to score since his debut 11 races ago, always a very bad sign.
So the finger of suspicion points at stall 3 and Cheerfilly (BETDAQ 10.5). Nicely named, by Excelebration out of Classic Remark, and another racing just 15 miles from her Malpas home
DAQMAN’S BETS (each one to win 20pts at Chester)
1.50 BET 5pts win LIHOU
2.25 BET 2.5pts win and place SHAHEREZADA
3.00 BET 5.25pts win SHOWMETHEDOUGH
3.35 BET 6.5pts win (nap) HUNTING HORN
4.05 BET 12pts win ARGENTELLO
5.05 BET 2pts win and place CHEERFILLY
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