NATIONAL HERO DAQMAN FLIES IN AGAIN AT 9-2: The Daqman big-race run got up pace for Cheltenham yesterday, with his second winner in two days, Flying Award (WON 9-2) landing the Devon National after Pass The Hat (WON 6-1) took the feature in Ireland on Sunday.
HE FOLLOWS ‘AWARD’ TO WEST COUNTRY DOUBLE: Once again, the real winners yesterday were BETDAQ punters who could have had 6.2 Flying Award, just as Pass The Hat was nominated by Daqman at 9.4. ‘Award’ was landing a double for Daqman, his fourth successive National win this year:
WON 4-1 SUN CLOUD North Yorkshire National (January)
WON 14-1 FLYING AWARD Somerset National
WON 9-2 EMPERORS CHOICE West Wales National (February)
WON 9-2 FLYING AWARD Devon National
20-1 TREBLE COMPLETED BY CAPOTE: Daqman’s Daq Multiples yesterday included a 20-1 treble: Flying Award (WON 9-2) with Be Bop Boru (WON 10-11) and Capote (WON 1-1) across the cards at Exeter and Newcastle.
DAY TWO OF HIS CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Our man is obviously in hot form for Cheltenham next week. Meanwhile, he lays bare the stats and facts to help you decide for yourself where to risk your money at the four-day festival. Here’s Day 2:
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 2: GRADED FORM GIVES MORNING ASSEMBLY AN RSA CHANCE
1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle): Some 74 possibles in this, 11 from Willie Mullins’ yard, but seven-year-olds and those without Graded win or place form, rated below 142, or Irish equivalent, are deleted.
Briar Hill, Deputy Dan, Don Poli, Faugheen, Kilala Quay, Kings Palace, Rathvinden, Red Sherlock, Royal Boy, Sea Lord, Timesremembered, Un Temps Pour Tout, Upazo and Vautour remain, though some of those are engaged elsewhere at the Festival.
Failure to win at or around the distance of the race (it’s 2m 5f) will thin them down even more. Out goes Rathvinden, Sea Lord and Upazo, leaving a short-list of 10.
But the 10 reduce to five if the BETDAQ market is your guide: 3.85 Faugheen, 5.7 Red Sherlock, 8.2 Royal Boy, 17.5 Deputy Dan, Un Temps Pour Tout, 25.0 Briar Hill (doubtful).
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Briar Hill (also engaged Albert Bartlett).
2.05 Cheltenham, Wednesday (RSA Chase): The winner already has class and inevitably comes from the ratings band 145-156. He’s aged seven and he hasn’t been out of the frame on his last three starts.
Recognise him? He’s Ballycasey, Black Thunder, Bright New Dawn, Corrin Wood, Don Cossack, Just A Par, Morning Assembly, Sam Winner, Shutthefrontdoor or Taquin Du Seuil.
But, if you take out those with fewer than three chase starts and without a win or a place in a Graded race, you are left with a 1-2-3 (BETDAQ offers) of 8.8 Morning Assembly, 17.0 Don Cossack and 28.0 Black Thunder.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Le Bec (15.0 on BETDAQ)
2.40 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Coral Cup): Older horses off a featherweight (five out of six with no more than 10st 3lb from 1993 to 1998) used to win this.
But, since then, as quality has increased, 12 of the last 13 winners have been aged from five to seven, with – since 2003 – seven winners racing off 10st 12lb or more.
So it is that three of the last four have been rated 141-148, in which range Paul Nicholls has Edgardo Sol, Far West and Virak, and Willie Mullins has Smashing, Upazo, Midnight Game and Rennetti.
Clever placing of horses is part of the trainer’s art. Watch out for the selections of these two champion handlers.
3.20 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Chase): The winner of this is aged from five to nine, must have had at least seven chase starts, finished in the first three in a Graded race and have been in the frame in all of his last four completed starts.
Those stats suggest that you look no further than Sire De Grugy (3.0 on BETDAQ) and Arvika Ligeonniere (7.2), with other qualifiers rank outsiders (Al Ferof, Benefficient, Hinterland and Module, with 15.0 Hinterland the likely Ditcheat runner instead of Al Ferof).
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof, 45.0 on BETDAQ (also engaged Ryanair Chase).
4.00 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Cross-Country): The same horses used to win this year on year (Spot The Differemce, Garde Champetre), revealing the genius of Enda Bolger at training them for this discipline.
We are overdue for a sequence horse and three likely starters – 4.9 on BETDAQ Big Shu, 6.0 Balthazar King and 18.0 Sizing Australia – have all won it before.
But the stats say you must have a horse aged eight to 12, off 10st 9lb or less (6 out of 8), which is a strong pointer to one horse, Any Curerency, a narrow second in a similar CD x-country in December, and third in November.
On both occasions, the ground was riding good. Only ninth in this championship last season, Any Currency is 9.4 as I write, but the weather next week holds the key.
This column is already on Balthazar King at 7.6, so we’ve got a bit of ‘overs’, but I’m secretly hoping he has a good round, but not a hard race, so that he lines up for me in the Grand National at 44.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON PARK TONIGHT: UNEXPOSED ANSAAB WORTH A BET
5.30 Kempton Park Let’s get the nap out of the way. Sudden Wish is a stand-out in the grade, with nearest market rivals Addikt, Polydamus and My Renaissance all having to resort to class 7 to get a win or a place. Ryan Moore back in the saddle.
6.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq No Lose Mobile Bet Median Auction Maiden Stakes) You certainly need to be In Seine to own a racehorse, so I appreciate the naming of this son of Champs Elysees.
But I can’t see myself moving all in on this river card. Much more likely to clear up is Andrew Balding with Bishop Of Ruscombe, his charges improving no end after just one run.
Another scopey individual is Dynamic Ranger. It’s a worry that he’s started at 20-1, 33-1 and 66-1 in his three starts. Not yet in play then, but it could be different tonight.
6.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq – Sports Betting Exchange – Handicap) A cracking class-2 contest, in which nine of the runners reached the frame last time out and, as might be expected, the BETDAQ market reveals a wide-open race, 6.6 the field, as I write.
Five-year-olds from the top end of the handicap have won both runnings so far and I remember this column being on Moonday Sun (a good second) at a big price over a mile at Lingfield.
But there are worries today: the draw (13) obviously; his second attempt at 10 furlongs (he didn’t seem to stay this trip last time behind Indian Jack); and his again meeting Lingfield conqueror, Rebellious Guest.
Moonday Sun is better off at the weights but I expected to see him in a pair of blinkers and returning to a mile, so I’ll wait for that to happen. In the Lincoln?
Rebellious Guest was unable to carry the penalty for beating Moonday Sun and he stays on that mark today, also drawn high. The Winter Derby awaits.
Rebellious Guest and Spa’s Dancer are also in the Lincoln but Moonday Sun looks well treated for Doncaster, getting 3lb from Spa’s Dancer, to whom he gives 2lb today.
Spa’s Dancer made a promising return after an absence at Lingfield recentl. He, too, has always been kept to around a mile but Ryan Moore thinks he deserves his chance at today’s trip.
Epic Battle has looked a good stone short of class 2 at Wolver the last twice but, as a four-year-old from a top yard, improvement can be expected.
Bancnuanaheireann may prefer his wide stall in 14. He ran a good second out of gate 10, racing wide, in a Listed at Lingfield in November but the third, Uramazin, turned round the form over the same CD in in December when ‘Banc’ was in stall 3.
Best guess for me today is the unexposed Ansaab (9 races in his life), a winner on Polytrack at Dundalk, who caught the eye, running on second here at Kempton over a mile a month back.
A big punt in the Irish Lincoln a year or so ago, he’s yet another with a Doncaster entry but, number 80 on the card, is unlikely to get in, and I think today’s 10 furlongs suits him better: 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write. Hope he stays sound for this.
7.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq In £500 In Free Bets Handicap) Sprinters take turns to win, needing a specific weight mark. The usual suspects for a lay are those up in the ratings.
But that doesn’t help here, with no fewer than eight runners racing off a lower mark than they’ve won off. Seven of them have scored in a higher grade. Seven of them have already won at Kempton.
You’d expect another 6.6 the field but, no, Alnoomas was clear in the market (at 3.6) this morning, blinkered first time. You guys obviously don’t need me!
8.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap) That’s more like it: 6.0 the field in yet another open and competitive handicap, a London Mile qualifier.
But is it that open? The prize has gone to four-year-olds in every one of its three years in existence, all three from stalls 1-6.
Those stats point us to Triple Chocolate, High Time Too and Liberty Jack, and I shall have my pound on further improvement by the lightly-raced Triple Chocolate, big at 13.0 this morning.
His return to a mile is significant after he dropped out in the last furlong over 1m 2f when badly drawn here last time.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) SUDDEN WISH (5.30 Kempton)
BET 4.4pts win SPA’S DANCER and 2.8pts win ANSAAB (6.30 Kempton)
BET 1.6pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) TRIPLE CHOCOLATE (8.00 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Sudden Wish (5.30 Kempton) and Bishop Of Ruscombe (6.00 Kempton) with Ansaab and Spa’s Dancer (6.30 Kempton)
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