7-1 AND 11–1 DAQMAN WINNERS: Daqman found a big-value winner for the second time in three days, following an 11-1 strike on Sunday with a 7-1 scorer yesterday, even bigger at Betdaq’s own SP. Monday we had that desperate photo-finish and Daqman expects that again when he naps a front-runner in the last at Kempton. But he also has 5.9 and 8.8 bets.
Tuesday: profit on the day 9.10
WON 7-1 STAR MIND (9.08 BETDAQ XSP)
WON 5-6 OPTIK
Sunday: profit on the day 53.37
WON 11-1 TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
WON 9-2 PRINCE OF ZENDA
WON 5-4 MYSTICAL POWER
15.0 ANTE-POST BET: First today another Daqman ante-post bet for Cheltenham (15.0 taken), with the trials weekend and Dublin Festival in mind.
BETDAQ 15.0 FOR THE ARKLE
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, March 12 (Arkle Challenge Trophy) STATS: Only three winners this century over the age of seven; only two younger than six. TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 5, Alan King 3, Paul Nicholls 2
Of the top four winners since 2012 – Douvan, Altior, Shishkin and Sprinter Sacre – three were trained by Nicky Henderson but his Jet Powered (pulled up first run back) is long-odds against this year, as yet not having jumped a fence in public.
At this stage, Willie Mullins has nine left in. But only Facile Vega, Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps are likely to run in the Irish Arkle (Leopardstown, Saturday, February 3) or a novice chase the following day, Sunday.
Three reasons why these trials are helpful: they will give us a vital sight of their chances; they could give us some ‘overs’ by reducing any ante-post odds we take now for Cheltenham, and we can bet on trials day to cover the ante-post stake.
Barry Connell’s Cheltenham Arkle favourite, Marine Nationale (pictured below), unbeaten 6-6, is odds-on for the Leopardstown Arkle.
He had Facile Vega (second) and Il Etait Temps (fifth) behind in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, which is so often key to future top chases, as it was with Vautour, Douvan, Altior and Shishkin.
Of the other Mullins possibles for the Cheltenham Arkle, the trainer thinks that the left-handed track will be against Gaelic Warrior.
So I shall take aim at Cheltenham with 15.0 shot Il Etait Temps, dropping back in trip from the 2m 3.5f defeat at Limerick by Gaelic Warrior. He is in both those novice chases at Leopardstown the first weekend in February.
Betdaq Betting Exchange SPORTSBOOK Cheltenham Arkle Challenge Cup: 15.0 Il Etait Temps
TRIP MAKES THIS 5.9 DELIGHT
⭕ 3.55 Southwell This 3m handicap hurdle is class 5 but the trio at the front of the market are all winners last time out.
Tune In A Box just gets in near the top of the handicap, despite a 9lb thumping from the handicapper for scoring at Newcastle in November. Or to look at it another way: Tom Lacey’s in–form yard has not been tempted in the intervening 55 days to step the grey up in grade.
General Hubble has also missed 60 or so days of opportunity since bursting on the scene in November and, again like Tune In The Box, you needed a telescope to see him finish – usually 30 lengths or so behind – in his previous starts.
Hobbs Delight (BETDAQ 5.9 this morning) is bred for this, third of a trio of Neil Mulholland bookings for Harry Cobden today.
Hobbs’ Delight, lightly raced for an eight-year-old, could be twice the animal stepped up in trip after dead-heating with a late finish over 2m 3f at Fontwell.
Hobb’s Delight is by Milan, sire of Aintree Stayers’ Hurdle winner, If The Cap Fits, and is first foal of a Winged Love mare who won over 3m as a hurdler and 3m 2f as a chaser. Winged Love is sire of Grade-1 winners.
THERE’S NOTHING LIKE DAME
⭕ 7.30 Kempton No News bids for a hat-trick at Kempton after back-to-back 7f success, but is stepping up to a mile, for which he has returns of 0040, including here.
Comedian Leader landed four wins out of five over 7f at this time last year, the run spoiled by defeat over a mile, and his returns at that trip since are 0000, although he’s lower in the handicap now.
Bobby Dassler has won only his maiden – always a bad sign – and he’s finished last (of 13, 12 and 12 again) at SPs up to 66-1 in his three latest starts.
On his first run for Alice Haynes three days ago, Evasive Power was beaten only a length, running on, over the Lingfield mile.
He’s a once-a-year winner off this kind of mark and has slipped down the handicap, but has never before turned out again so quickly and reached the frame.
Another running for a new yard, Fitzrovia, aged 9, scored back to back here at Kempton (7f and 1m) in December, 2021.
Struggling since until, a stone or more lower and encountering heavy ground at Windsor, he won in the autumn first time of asking for Tim Vaughan.
Recuerdame is much the most consistent of the oldies, 11 times an AW winner, three of them over today’s CD.
Ignore the market: Simon Dow’s winners are often good prices and Recuerdame’s strikes include SPs of 9-2, 6-1, 13-2, 15-2, 9-1, 11-1 and 14-1. I’ll take a bit of BETDAQ 8.8 today
GRACE CAN DO US A FAVOUR
⭕ 8.00 Kempton David’s Diva had been knocking at the door before getting off the mark at Southwell 19 days ago and the runner-up Daafy won comfortably, returned to the same track eight days later. But both wins were class 6.
It was ‘no contest’ between CD-winners Wadacre Grace and Clipsham Gold when they met here in October, though they are closer in the weights now.
The runner-up boosted the form and Wadacre Grace has also scored again and been placed three times for an overall rise of just 3lb. All wins in class 5.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.55 Southwell (win 20)
BET 4pts win HOBBS DELIGHT
7.30 Kempton (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win RECUERDAME
8.00 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 6pts win WADACRE GRACE
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