DAQMAN KERRY NATIONAL PUNTS: Daqman’s in shock, forced to raise his stakes, on the grounds that it’s almost like a Saturday array of cards, featuring the Kerry National – in which he takes on Pricewise with 10.0 and 13.5 bets – and excellent venues at Beverley, Sandown and Yarmouth.
DOUBLE WHAMMY ‘FORTUNE’ DARE: His nap of the day is in the Fortune Stakes at Sandown, where he dares to oppose a hot favourite (placed behind two Derby winners) with a 7.6 shot on BETDAQ. The lay and the win bet constitute a double whammy.
TIERCEL TO EARN HIS PLACE IN TROPHY LINE-UP
1.55 Yarmouth There are three strong two-year-olds in a 40-minute burst of juvenile class, firstly in this race (Massaat), then in the 2.15 Sandown and 2.35 Beverley, where they are both backable.
Massaat should win but I can’t take 3-1 on and raise the stakes to banker level, with rain about on a firmish surface, often a lethal combination for youngsters.
2.15 Sandown No wonder Roger Varian has runners everywhere today – Beverley, Sandown, Yarmouth – with 17 place returns from his last 24 starters.
Tiercel has been working well and is the only colt in the field with Pattern-race entries, bound for the Racing Post Trophy if he wins this.
2.35 Beverley Another two-year-old to back today is Peloponnese, a Monjeu filly trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who is four out of five with juveniles at Beverley over the last five seasons.
3.00 Yarmouth The bookies were cowards not to price this one up overnight (and give me another crack at Pricewise), a very strong Listed, though usually won by a three-year-old.
Five fillies are spread around six points apart in the BETDAQ orange, as I write, with Angel Vision the value at 9.6.
The race sees the return of Speedy Boarding, who seemingly failed to stay in the Irish Oaks. Loving Things ‘could be anything’, after one run, one maiden win. Talmada has already been placed in a Group 2.
But Angel Vision has been the apple of Sir Michael Stoute’s eye at home, daughter of his superb race-mare, Islington (Nassau, Yorkshire Oaks, Breeders’ Cup).
I believe Angel Vision has been crying out for today’s trip and only if the ground softens will I be put off her. She loved the firm surface at Newmarket in June, and Sir Michael has won the race twice in the decade.
THIS IS KNIGHT’S DAY TO CLAIM HIS FORTUNE
3.20 Sandown (Fortune Stakes) Elm Park bids to return to soft-ground Racing Post Trophy winning form, and should score here on his Dante third to the English and Irish Derby winners.
But he was given a long holiday after pulling hard in the Epsom Derby, and the worry at odds on is that he could again be too fresh today. At 1.79 in the BETDAQ green he’s a lay, with three strong opponents.
Prince Gagarin is back to the trip, grade and ground of his only Pattern success and Gabrial, second in the Celebration Mile and third in the Sussex Stakes, seems sure to get involved.
But the rule at this time of the year must be to take the improver, which is no doubt Decorated Knight, another Roger Varian, so certain to be fit as a flea right now, and offers of 7.6 on BETDAQ are big.
‘Knight’ is bred to be anything, by the much decorated Galileo out of a sister to Giant’s Causeway, and we haven’t seen the best of a colt described by Varian in the summer as ‘still babyish.’
3.30 Yarmouth Last year’s winner of this, Qanan, looks a Hidden Horse here at 14.0 on BETDAQ, after racing for most of the summer over trips much too far. It won’t be easy.
Passover is another who could be anything after winning in apprentice and amateur contests, then getting bogged down in mud at Epsom: 7.8 offers are very fair in a 108% orange.
Critical Risk is the obvious one, unexposed at today’s trip and for whom rain could be a bonus, as a son of Pivotal.
MEMORIES HAS THE CLASS IN KERRY NATIONAL
4.20 Listowel (Kerry National) Three horses have carried more than 11st to victory in this over the last 17 seasons since 1998 but only one could manage it on soft-heavy; the rest won on good or firm ground.
In the same time period, only one winner has been a double-figure age, and only two aged six, so I’m heading straight down the card to Mouse Morris’s Ravished, who doesn’t seem to care whether it’s concrete or mud.
Winner of both the Killarney National and the Midlands National at Kilbeggan, he’s up 22lb since the first of those two toughies which completed a hat-trick of spring-summer chases.
Strangely, the only flaw in his last five outings has been a bad error over hurdles. That was at the Galway Festival when favourite for a big-field handicap.
Ravished, 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning, is Bryan Cooper’s pick of four Mouse Morris runners in the race, including the paper favourite, Rule The World, twice runner-up in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
Willie Mullins tops that with five contenders, including today’s choice of Ruby Walsh, The Paparrazi Kid, second in the Galway Plate when Rule The World fluffed his lines; every chance, slipped up.
Compare the Mullins-Morris scattergun approach (they train half the field between them) with the single shot – Dare To Endeavour – from Eric McNamara, who won the race back-to-back in 2007-8 (the same feat as Mullins in 2005-6) and had the one-two in 2012.
Dare To Endeavour is first reserve but, when the ground is a bog, you can often get ‘nonners.’ His chances of taking part are much better than his 32.0 offers on BETDAQ.
Dare To Endeavour is in a similar situation to the stable’s famous winner of this, Ponmeoath. Both had a prep run over hurdles in August; both beaten out of sight.
Trying to emulate Ponmeoath, who won this race back to back, is last year’s winner, Your Busy, with Katie Walsh keeping the ride.
As far as class goes, you couldn’t improve on Lots Of Memories (10.0 offers). Paul Fahey’s Grade-3 hurdler has already been placed in a Grade-1 novice chase at Leopardstown behind the subsequent Cheltenham RSA winner, Don Poli.
Others worth comment are Owega Star (not won beyond 22f) and Akorakor (not beyond 20f), plus Alelchi Inois, Colour Squadron and 2014 Munster National winner Shanpallas (all chase success for them has been on good or firm ground).
VERDICT: 1 Lots of Memories, 2 Ravished, 3 The Paparrazi Kid (Dare To Endeavour, reserve)
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 7.5pts win TIERCEL (2.15 Sandown)
BET 4.25pts win PELOPONNESE (2.35 Beverley)
BET 2.3pts win ANGEL VISION (3.00 Yarmouth)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts ELM PARK and BET 3pts win (nap) DECORATED KNIGHT (3.20 Sandown)
BET 3pts win PASSOVER and (HIDDEN HORSE) 1.5pts win and place QANAN (3.30 Yarmouth)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 5pts win LOTS OF MEMORIES, 4pts win RAVISHED, and 1.6pts win and place DARE TO ENDEAVOUR (4.20 Listowel)
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