SIX IN A ROW FOR WINNER-A-DAY: After a half-length defeat for his 5-1 nap, Valfortino, Daqman had to wait for Ottoman Fleet to come in and land his usual winner a day; six days running now.
WON 6-4 OTTOMAN FLEET (Tuesday)
WON 9-2 CODE PURPLE (Monday)
WON 1-1 BLUE ROSE CEN (Sunday nap)
WON 8-1 CORACH RAMBLER (Saturday) BETDAQ 11.5
WON 9-2 WEST BALBOA (Saturday) BETDAQ value 7.2
WON 4-6 GERRI COLOMBE (Friday) supernap
WON 3-1 INTHEPOCKET (Friday) BETDAQ value 5.1
WON 15-2 DANCING ON MY OWN (Thursday) BETDAQ 10.5
NELL GWYN: DAQMAN 8 PRICEWISE 4: It’s Nell Gwyn day today at Newmarket with Daqman leading Pricewise 8-4.
GROUND IS HARD FOR PUNTERS
GOING LOGIC: Yesterday we talked about Lays Logic – when to oppose favourites – but the problem of what the going is really like is a betting scourge.
Yesterday we were picking our bets on the grounds that it was ‘soft’ at Newmarket, but William Buick came in and said it was no worse than good to soft and, in drying wind and with no rain forecast, would be ‘beautiful’ for the rest of the Craven meeting.
The time for Buick’s win was slow by 8 seconds but that was to do with the head wind as much as the ground.
The recorded time, and what the jockeys say after the first, is all you have to go on, so make a point of checking them out.
In an ideal world, some of the trade paper’s 71 staffers should publish ‘pogo stick’ measurements across the track, furlong by furlong, with each result during the afternoon. They need the exercise.
It took half a century to get furlong-by-furlong timing but ‘sectionals’ have never really caught on with the backer. The penny dropped and the penny rolled down the drain.
HOOFNOTE: so much for ‘favourites never win the opening two races’ yesterday – both scored – so don’t forget my proviso: you must have some additional negative if you’re going to lay the market leader.
FLAME CAN FLY AT BEVERLEY
DRAW LOGIC As with favourites and going conditions, the draw is largely an adjunct to form and other factors. But sometimes (check out the Arc at Longchamp), it can be a powerful positive or negative.
⭕ 2.50 Beverley This appears to be a pinstickers’ race, a field of 16 class-3 northern sprinters. But results by stall recommend you aim your pin at the group drawn 1 to 8. All winners have come from there in the decade.
Count d’Orsay, who last won in September 2020, has plummeted 23lb down the handicap and was the plunge horse when bookies opened betting yesterday.
Dandy Dinmont is going the other way up the handicap, penalised twice for places. Good Earth is also high enough now.
Nelson Gay’s turf strike-rate (1-18) is offputting, and The Thin Blue Line is 1-25. Night On Earth is down to his last winning mark for a new stable.
But my idea of a flutter is Ventura Flame, a CD scorer from the one stall today, for a stable in form. Ability on this tough course is a bonus.
BETDAQ value 9.8 Ventura Flame
THEY’RE EASY PREY FOR LION
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Another pinsticker’s race, the winner a needle in a haystack. As my Hoofnote (above) indicates, the market was helpful yesterday and three years in five the favourite has taken this mile handicap.
But the last 16 Andrew Balding runners have all been beaten, including two favourites.
So I’m tempted to Oisin Murphy on James Fanshawe’s Lion Kingdom, who progressed race on race in his first season and likes to be up there from the start. Three winners yesterday led or were prominent on the easy surface.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket Aleezdancer, impressive at Doncaster, is 5-5 in sprints on the soft. Could win again before going to sleep over the summer and returning for a crack at the Ayr Gold Cup.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 20 Lion Kingdom. 6 Aleezdancer
KOLSAI TO SCORE AT A PRICE
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Erhab, second in this in 1994, won the Derby and, in 2015, the winner of this, Golden Horn, was an Epsom hero for Frankie Dettori.
Gosden, who has had two more winners since, Khalidi (2017) and Kick On (2019), has booked Hollie Doyle for stamina-laden Intinso.
Charlie Appleby chooses Bold Act, winner of the Road To The Kentucky Derby heat at Chelmsford.
But I shall have a bit each way on Kolsai, whose pedigree is packed with gems and who won his maiden on the course in September.
Roger Varian turned them over in this last year with 22-1 shot Eydon, who went on to finish fourth in the Guineas. Kolsai comes out of the same stall as Eydon today as well as the same stable!
BETDAQ value 27 Kolsai
FAIRY LIGHTS UP NELL GWYN
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) This is a huge field for a Nell Gwyn, which suggests that there is nothing dominant in the age group; the fillies’ Classics are wide open.
George Boughey who had last year’s winner, Cachet, going on to win the 1,000 Guineas, tries to back that up from Queen Olly and Believing, who has been training well since wind surgery but we’re told is most likely to return to sprinting after this.
It’s a trial that Frankie Dettori made his own, with seven winners from 1991 to 2017 and his partner today, Coppice, is a Kingman filly who has Irish 2,000 winner, Native Trail on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
Charlie Appleby ran up to Coppice in her maiden with a subsequent easy Kempton winner and you would think he knows the score for Fairy Cross.
The daughter of Dubawi won a Group 3 at Goodwood and had her first outing this year when runner-up at Meydan to Mawj, who was placed in the Albany, the Cheveley Park and the Lowther.
Fairy Cross is rated 104, just behind recent winners of this at that stage. She is next door to Believing in the stalls, so should get a tow.
BETDAQ value 3.3 Coppice, 4.9 Fairy Cross
BET to win 50: 4.75pts win COOLE CODY
BET to win 12: 5pts win HELTENHAM
1.50 Newmarket (win 24 including place)
BET 1pt win and place LION KINGDOM
2.25 Newmarket (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win ALEEZDANCER
2.50 Beverley (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win VENTURA FLAME
3.00 Newmarket (win 30 including place)
BET 1pt win and place KOLSAI
3.35 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5pts win FAIRY CROSS
BET (saver) 2pts win COPPICE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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