BIG-RACE BONANZA ON THE FLAT AND OVER JUMPS: DAQMAN previews the top races today at Epsom (Great Met and City And Suburban) and Punchestown (Gold Cup) after a day of unbelievable drama at Punchestown yesterday. Shamrock is your Storyteller on that one today.
DAQMAN 15-3 LEAD AFTER DAY 1 AT PUNCHESTOWN: Daqman is 15-3 up on Pricewise for winners and 75 points clear to a single-unit level stake (Daqman +34.00, Pricewise –40.75).
‘JUST’ MORE BIG BETDAQ VALUE
It’s all so different! Guessing which of the jaded jumpers can hold some form. That’s the ‘art’ of betting at Punchestown. Guessing which Flat horses are ready to show their form. That’s the ‘art’ of Epsom. No wonder Jackson Pollock just threw paint at the canvas.
All you can hope to do is find some value. That’s not hard on BETDAQ, when the SP bookies produce SP total percentages of 129, 131 and 142 as in Ireland yesterday.
Compare ‘early mouse’ lists in the BETDAQ orange this morning, with Punchestown overrounds of 110 and 108% and at Epsom 110 and 107% at around 9 o’clock.
2.10 Epsom The stats say you can delete horses over the age of six (1-10 in the decade) and those from double-figure stalls (also 1-10).
That takes out five horses but I am inclined to add Harry Hurricane to the negatives (George Baker 0-21 this year).
Then, in sprint races, you delete those without a recent run, those who have already failed at this class-3 level, and those more than 6lb higher than their last winning mark.
Only three positives are left: Compas Scoobie, Tavener and Justanotherbottle, who gets my vote, as an April winner who ran third in the Portland on an easy surface. Looks a cut above these, yet I could get 13.5 offers. Just more BETDAQ value!
GOSDEN KEEPS THE TRIAL BATON
2.45 Epsom (Blue Riband Trial) In successive seasons John Gosden has launched Musidora winner, So Mi Dar, and Champion Stakes hero Cracksman in this.
Now he has Crossed Baton, well positioned in the one stall (those drawn 1 to 5 are 7-10 in the decade) and with a better early rating (97) than either of those.
The exposed Dee Ex Bee won here at Epsom on heavy in the autumn before being put in his place by Aidan O’Brien’s Kew Gardens.
O’Brien today saddles James Cook (gate 8), a full brother to Arc winner Found, who was runner-up in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at this stage in her career.
O’Brien runners are below par, with 17 favourites beaten (strike rate 9-53 in the last two weeks), so James Cook was big at 4.7 and a drifter this morning.
FIGHTING CHANCE WITH TWO
3.20 Epsom (Great Metropolitan) Horses aged four and five (9-10) own this handicap, with John Gosden (a 9st 3lb winner in 2012) and Mark Johnston (9st 11lb last year) capable of sitting quality horses at the top of the handicap.
Here they are again with 9.6 offer Fire Fighting, fifth in the Rosebery at Kempton in March, and Royal Line, ex-French dual winner on soft last year, who has also been out. I took 5.7 Royal Line.
3.55 Epsom (City and Suburban) Andrew Balding has won this twice in the last three seasons with horses that had already raced, but his runner today, Contango, delivered first time last year, and went on delivering, completing a hat-trick while the ground was on the soft side: 8.2 on BETDAQ
RESPECT ON ROAD TO THE TOP
5.30 Punchestown (Coral Punchestown Gold Cup) A young horse that has won at Punchestown, is on the way up yet already top rating here.
Road To Respect slammed a bunch of these at Christmas. He found the Cheltenham Gold Cup beyond him at age only seven but still finished in front of some of today’s field.
Road To Respect, Edwulf, Bellshill and Killultagh Vic have a big advantage in that they are all lightly raced this season.
It’s a question of how much the Irish Grand National took out of Bellshill (narrowly beaten on the run-in; I was counting my money at the last) and whether Killultagh Vic stands up and gets the trip.
6.40 Punchestown (Guinness Chase) Shanahan’s Turn – 6.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write – ran well at Aintree without taking to the big fences.
Lightly raced this season, on the right mark in the weights, and compensation for Colin Tizzard after yesterday’s crazy final fence in the race ’won’ (but not really) by The Storyteller. An appropriate name with this story set to run and run.
DAQMAN BETS
2.10 Epsom (win 30)
BET 1.5pts win and place JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE
2.45 Epsom (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) CROSSED BATON
3.20 Epsom (win 20)
BET 4pts win ROYAL LINE
BET 2.25pts win FIGHTING FIFTH
3.40 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 1.37pts win and place MAN OF PLENTY
3.55 Epsom (win 30)
BET 4pts win CONTANGO
5.30 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 7pts win ROAD TO RESPECT
6.15 Taunton (win 20)
BET 3pts win CHARLIE PAPA LIMA
6.40 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 5pts win RELEGATE
6.40 Punchestown (win 30)
BET 6pts win SHANAHAN’S TURN
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