WHAT’S GOOD IN ISOLATION? WINNERS AND LOSERS! Racing will be back soon. Be ready with Daqman’s insights into backing and laying, with examples of simple ways of isolating horses that could win and horses likely to lose. It’s Part 7 (continued) of Daqman’s Secrets of Winner Finding.
TODAY: A shining example of a lay
TOMORROW: Big-race lays bonanza
A SHINING EXAMPLE OF A LAY
Rubbish in, rubbish out. The old computer adage still holds good. So choose your algorithms carefully! Or, if you still use your brain to assess the form, don’t rush to judgment.
When looking for lays, you need two or three factors that condemn a horse; or one extremely strong reason to think it just won’t win:
▪️ POOR strike rate
▪️ POOR stable form
▪️ POOR collateral form
▪️ WRONG class
▪️ WRONG trip
▪️ WRONG ground
▪️ LOSER status as a bridesmaid
▪️ PROFESSIONAL LOSER
You can only afford to lay a price between odds on and around 2-1 in ordinary races and normal fields, but you can bait your offers with bigger prices if you are laying a big-race favourite or one in a large field.
Just remember the golden rule, whether backing or laying: you are betting to make a profit in a series of bets, and you can only beat the law of averages if the percentages are on your side.
Know more than anyone else and bet only for value in the BETDAQ Sportsbook or the BETDAQ Exchange.
Yesterday I told you about my feast of successful lays on Daqman, so I’ll start with some from that era to show you what I’m talking about. Then tomorrow we’ll look more carefully at the reasoning, and more recent examples.
SHINING EXAMPLE Shining Gale (unplaced 10-11 favourite, Southwell): Had not won over the distance and his two successes had come when left clear as other horses fell, yet he had to give 10lb under the race conditions to Best Actor, who had run well in a Listed chase, and West End Rocker, who had split top-notchers Wichita Lineman and Big Fella Thanks at levels (Best Actor won 20-1, West End Rocker 2nd 2-1).
POOR STRIKE RATE Tisfreetodream (2nd 6-4 favourite, Warwick): Placed 15 times from 22 hurdles starts but had won only once; Tony McCoy up, which kept the price short.
The Magic Of Rio (unplaced evens favourite, Kempton): Of the stable’s 14 runners in the previous fortnight, 13 had been among the last three finishers in their respective races. Incredible value lay.
Azure Mist (2nd 4-1, AW): Form 0-17 with a string of places without winning. An ideal lay with two top yards fancied in the race.
Dunaskin (unplaced 2-1 favourite, Leicester): His strike rate in the previous four years was 1-36, and that was when given a soft lead in first-time cheekpieces (not worn after) for a poor contest at Pontefract.
WRONG TRIP My Petra (2nd 5-6 favourite, Ascot): Trying an extended distance but cost her supporters when previously backed to stay 2m 4f; her form over 20-furlongs plus was 0P0.
Naiad du Misselot (2nd 8-11 favourite, Kelso): Far from impressive jumper and drop of four furlongs in trip had to be a negative as shorter distances but jumping under more pressure.
Nine De Sivola (2nd 11-8 favourite, Market Rasen): It was a mile too short for him on fast ground and on a turning track. Forever the ‘bridesmaid’, with six seconds since he had last won nearly two years earlier.
PROFESSIONAL LOSER Special Reserve (unplaced 5-4 favourite, Lingfield): Eight places without winning from 12 runs: ‘not clear run,’ plus ‘not quicken’ and ‘never going the pace’ when put together indicated an animal that doesn’t want to win.
Mazaris (3rd 6-4 favourite) and Majuba (3rd 6-4 favourite, AW): Mazaris’ form figures were 432322 and Majuba’s 4232232 with five decent stables in form good enough to turn him over. Same card.
LOST HIS WAY Chief Dan George (3rd 7-2, Sedgefield): Taking on some decent types, had lost his way over timber, beaten a total of 265 lengths in seven starts, but the handicapper couldn’t forget his Aintree Grade-1 hurdle in April 2007 so he was still rated 145 despite all those duck-eggs. His switch to fences will take time.
Palarshan (unplaced 7-2, Huntingdon): Morning favourite yet hadn’t won for more than five years.
COLLATERAL FORM: Torpichen (4th 3-1, Leicester): Loser at 4-6 and 5-4 in his last two races, had won only a Class-5 maiden and was beaten in a Class-3 handicap by a horse in turn beaten 12 lengths the day before this race. Earlier, Torpichen lost to Porthole, beaten in his next race 22 lengths, and not been in the frame in three tries since.
STATS ATTACK: Crackaway Jack (2nd 2-1 favourite, Ascot): There were cracks in the profile of this favourite; the race was too far for him; his form had been let down and, on the stats, he was too young: a novice had won only once before and the last four-year-old winner had been 22 years ago.
POOR STABLE FORM Dream Win (unplaced 7-2, Doncaster): Stoute had had a poor season with his two-year-olds: he’d had only 13 winners, less than half the previous season’s total; his last 16 juvenile runners had been beaten, including three hot favourites.
WRONG GROUND: Charles Street (2nd evens favourite, Wincanton): His third run in a week; it was raining and the going changed, all his wins having been on good ground but all in poor time, the last two around 28 seconds slow.
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