Denver Broncos (3-1, 1-3 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-4, 0-4-1 ATS)
ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -10 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Denver: LB Lerentee McCray (questionable– knee), RB Montee Ball (out– groin)
New York: LB A.J. Edds (questionable– hamstring), CB Darrin Wells (questionable– knee), WR Eric Decker (questionable– hamstring), LB David Harris (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Denver is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win
New York is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in Denver’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 6-1 in Denver’s last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in New York’s last 4 games vs. AFC opponents
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos are the defending AFC champion and they’re 3-1 this season, winning all three of their games by 7 points or more. Last week they beat the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals by 21 points. The Jets, meanwhile, have lost 4 consecutive games and were humiliated 31-0 in San Diego last week.
2. Denver is led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, who is averaging 316 pass yards per game this season and directing an offense that is producing 29 points per game. Manning’s counterpart on Sunday, New York’s Geno Smith, has accounted for more turnovers than anyone on the NFL since the beginning of the 2013 season.
3. The Jets are going to have trouble beating anybody with their abysmal offense, a unit that ranks 30th in points scored (15.8 ppg) and 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in passing yards. The running game has been the only functional part of the offense, but the Broncos are stout against the run (88.2 ypg allowed, 7th-best in the league), so this is bad matchup for New York any way you slice it.
Three reasons to back New York
1. A 10-point home underdog against a team that has inarguably been overvalued this season, covering just once all year despite a 3-1 record? Sign me up.
2. The Jets can run the ball and they can stop the run, which is the foundation of winning football. Their impressive stable of backs should have success against the mediocre Denver defense and control time of possession, keeping Peyton Manning on the sidelines. When Manning is on the field the Denver offense will be even more one-dimensional than usual, as starting tailback Montee Ball is out with a groin injury.
3. This is a circle-the-wagons, backs against the wall moment for the Jets after their embarrassing performance in San Diego last week. They’ve done well after poor offensive outings recently, covering in 6 of their last 8 games following games in which they scored fewer than 15 points. Does it sound like I’m reaching a bit? Well… did I mention that we’re talking about a 10-point home underdog here? 10 points!!
Prediction
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