Detroit Lions (5-2, 4-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-5, 2-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -3.5 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: WR Calvin Johnson (questionable– ankle), LB Travis Lewis (questionable– leg), OT Ladarius Waddle (questionable– concussion), TE Eric Ebron (questionable– hamstring), RB Reggie Bush (doubtful– ankle), WR T.J. Jones (out– shoulder)
Atlanta: WR Harry Douglas (questionable– foot), S William Moore (out– shoulder), C Peter Konz (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Atlanta is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points
Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in Detroit’s last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-1 in Detroit’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions have been one of the NFC’s best teams this season, winning 5 of their 7 games despite facing three teams that made the playoffs in 2013. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off four straight double-digit losses and have covered just twice in their 7 games. Don’t overthink it: the better team usually wins.
2. Detroit has a dominant defense that leads the NFL in yards allowed and ranks 2nd in points allowed, and this week they should feast on an Atlanta offensive line that is among the league’s worst. The Falcons have been utterly unable to protect Matt Ryan this year, and they lost another lineman– center Peter Konz– to a season-ending injury last week.
3. Atlanta is exceptionally bad on defense, ranking 30th in both yards allowed and points allowed. They’ve surrendered 31.8 points per game over their last four contests, so there’s no reason to think they’ll have any success against the Matt Stafford-led Detroit offense.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons have struggled lately, but they’re a dangerous team that’s scored 93 combined points in their two wins this season. Detroit has already lost to Carolina and Buffalo, two middling teams who lack Atlanta’s offensive pop, and they’ve covered just twice in their last 7 games following a win.
2. The secondary is unquestionably the weakness of the Detroit defense and the Falcons rank 5th in pass yards per game, so this is a good matchup for the Atlanta offense. The Lions simply won’t have an answer for a Falcons receiving corps that features two Pro Bowlers in Julio Jones and Roddy White.
3. Detroit just hasn’t been very good on offense this season– they rank 24th in total yards per game and 25th in points scored– and their best offensive player, wideout Calvin Johnson, may be forced to miss another game thanks to a nagging ankle injury. It’s going to be difficult for the plodding Lions to keep up with the high-flying Falcons.
Prediction
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