So who is the most likely winner of this afternoon’s Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes at Goodwood? Izzi Top I’d say. Who are you going to back? Different question.

It’s always good to try to price these races up before you see another tissue or an ante post market. There was an ante post market for the Nassau Stakes of sorts during the week before final declarations on Thursday, there weren’t many firms betting on it, but it still gave you an indication of how bookmakers were thinking, and that’s not ideal. However stoic you are in your opinion, you are still sure to be at least a little influenced in forming your own tissue if you see another tissue or market before you have had a chance to solidify your opinion.

Nevertheless, here was my tissue: 3.0 Izzi Top, 6.0 Nahrain, 6.0 The Fugue, 9.0 Was, 13.0 Timepiece, 13.0 Lay Time, 34.0 Sea Of Heartbreak, 34.0 Clinical.

I am obviously bigger than I should be about Was, and if I was committing to laying these prices I would obviously have to re-visit them, get closer into line with the market. I was a Was fan immediately after the Oaks, I thought she would be under-rated after winning the race under a great ride from Seamie Heffernan. In fact, the opposite has happened. It appears that lots of people thought she would be under-rated after her Oaks win. As a consequence, in my opinion (and this odds and probability game is all about opinions), she is at least slightly over-rated, and I am happy to be against her at 7.6.

I am also a little too big about Nahrain and The Fugue. I can see the case for both, but Nahrain was very disappointing in the Windsor Forest, and she still has to prove that she has trained on as a four-year-old now for me. The Fugue obviously has a chance, and the drop down to 10 furlongs could suit her well now, but she has been a little exposed now as being short of top class, she has had four races this year already, the last two quite hard races for a filly, and William Buick has, unsurprisingly, chosen to ride Izzi Top instead.

So Izzi Top is the most likely winner in my book. That is why, when Newstalk’s researcher called on Thursday afternoon to ask me for my tip for the Nassau Stakes for that evening’s broadcast, I said Izzi Top. But that wasn’t right. She was no better than 3.0 at that stage, exactly the same price as she was on my tissue, so there was no value in that. Nice and all as it is to give a winner on Newstalk, you still have to stick to the fundamental principle of betting, that value is king, that it’s all about the odds. So I called him back. Actually, it’s not Izzi Top at all, it’s Lay Time. Each-way.

Lay Time is the filly in the race who is most over-priced in my book. Her odds of 19.0 are 46% bigger than my tissue odds of 13.0, and 46% is massive. On the downside, even if my opinion is accurate, even if she truly is a 13.0 shot and not a 19.0 shot, she is still an outsider. On average, only one in 13 of those 13.0 shots win. However, on the upside, if you are always backing true 13.0 shots at 19.0, with one in every 13 winning, in the long run you will make a profit.

Hope the long runs starts today.

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