Question: Badger Ales Trophy? Answer: Paul Nicholls. Obviously.
Nicholls has won three of the last four renewals of the race, and he nearly won the one that he didn’t win as well, with The Tother One finishing well to take second place behind Ellerslie George in the 2009 renewal.
There’s more. The champion trainer had two runners in the race last year, and they finished first and second. He had two runners in the race in 2008, and they finished first and third. He sent out the third in 2007 and the runner-up in 2005, and he won it in 2004 with Royal Auclair when another of his horses, Whitenzo, finished third. Wincanton is Nicholls’s track – he has had 50 winners from 185 runners there in the last five seasons – and the Badger Ales is his race.
Nicholls runs two in today’s race. No Loose Change is an interesting horse. He looked really good in winning a decent three-mile handicap chase at Newbury last March, but he couldn’t cope with a 16lb hike for that when he was well beaten at Ayr on his next run. He disappointed on his debut this term at Fakenham as well and, while he could easily bounce back, he is on something of a recovery mission now.
It is no surprise, then, that Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Michel Le Bon in his stead. Graham Roach’s horse has something to prove himself. He looked like a really exciting chasing prospect when he won a Grade 2 contest on his chasing bow at Newbury on Hennessy weekend in 2009, but a tendon injury meant that he missed the rest of the season and the whole of the next one. He returned after exactly two years off, and was well backed for the 2011 Hennessy, in which he did travel well, but ultimately faded up the home straight.
He was again well-backed for the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton last February, but he could never got into a racing rhythm and he was pulled up. Reverting to hurdles for his only subsequent run, he stayed on gallantly to win a good handicap at Cheltenham last April off a mark of 134.
That run proved that he retained at least a sizeable portion of his ability, and suggested that he could be well up to a mark of 140 over fences. He shaped like a potential RSA Chase horse three years ago when he won that Newbury race, and he raced off a mark of 146 in the Hennessy and off a mark of 144 in the Racing Plus Chase. He is nine, but he has raced just three times over fences, he is really lightly-raced and he still has plenty of scope to be significantly better than his mark.
Rain last night would be a help, but you can be sure that Nicholls will have him primed for today. The assistance of Ruby Walsh in these long distance chases is invaluable and he should probably be at least a little shorter than 5.0.
I was surprised to see The Package and Diamond Harry in the line-up. I thought that David Pipe would keep The Package for the three-and-a-half-mile chase at Cheltenham next weekend, and I thought, perhaps naively, that Diamond Harry would be kept fresh for the Hennessy, a race that he won on his seasonal debut in 2010 off a mark that was 6lb higher than his current mark. He could be a really well-handicapped horse now, there is no doubting his class and he does go well fresh, but he under-performed in all four of his runs last year, he would probably prefer softer ground than he is going to get, and he is enigmatic character who has never before raced at a right-handed track. Seventeen runs, all 17 at left-handed tracks.
If Michel Le Bon under-performs, Zarrafakt is the most likely beneficiary. The time to catch Emma Lavelle’s horse is when he is fresh, as he will be today on his debut this term. His record on his seasonal debut reads 1112, the 2 a head defeat to That’lldoboy at Newbury last November. He won a handicap chase over today’s course and distance as well last January, and he won’t mind good to soft ground.
He has raced just six times over fences, and he has plenty of scope for progression, but he is 9lb higher than he was when he last won. Michel Le Bon has more scope for progression for me and, at a similar price, the Nicholls horse is more appealing.
On the flat, Clayton the most interesting horse for me at the prices in the November Handicap. His pemultimate run at Musselburgh, when he finished second to Scatter Dice, the pair of them clear, was a cracker (the Mark Johnston filly won a handicap at Ascot on her next run off an 8lb higher mark) and you can easily forgive him his latest run at Newmarket (for which he was dropped by 1lb by the handicapper, which was a nice bonus), when he was returning from a break and was just too keen through the early stages of the race, yet still kept on admirably.
That run should have knocked the freshness out of him, he comes into today’s race fresher than most, he should be well suited to the return to a mile and a half and to a left-handed track, he has a lovely racing weight and he is a progressive three-year-old who has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark. It is disappointing that his odds have been evaporating since the five-day entries last Monday, but 9.0 is still a little better than fair.
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