Bad start to Christmas: Sizing Europe not in the King George, Roalco De Farges not in the Welsh National. Such are the vagaries of ante post betting, but it’s never a good thing when they don’t make it to the starting line.
It’s not all bad though. Michel Le Bon is still in the Welsh National, and his chance is enhanced somewhat by the absence of Roalco De Farges, and perhaps more significantly by that of erstwhile ante post favourite Le Beau Bai.
And Michel has a chance. He is nine years old now, older than ideal for a modern Welsh National winner, given that the last three winners were eight, and that the last eight have been younger than nine. That said, the 2002 and 2003 winners were both nine.
More than that, however, Michel Le Bon is a particularly lightly-raced nine-year-old, having run just nine times in his life and just four times over fences. He still has significant potential for progression.
That potential is enhanced by the fact that he steps up to a marathon trip on Thursday for the first time. He has always shaped like a real stayer, a horse for whom an extreme stamina test would be ideal. As well as that, he has always hinted at a touch of class. He was high in the betting for the 2010 RSA Chase when he dotted up in a Grade 2 contest at Newbury on his chasing debut in November 2009. Alas, injury intervened and we didn’t see him on a racecourse for the remainder of that season.
His novice status blown, he returned exactly 24 months later to contest the Hennessy Gold Cup. Sent off the 10/1 joint fourth favourite, he travelled well to the top of the home straight before fading, lack of a recent run obviously telling in the end.
The fact that he was sent off as favourite for the Racing Post/Plus Chase on his next run three months later gives you an indication of the regard in which he has always been held, but he could never get into a rhythm on the good ground and sharp track. He was much more at home in a three-mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in April on soft ground on his final run last term, when he looked good in beating Pause And Clause and Golan Way.
He also looked good on his debut this season in the Badger Ales Trophy, when he and The Package had it between them from a long way out. He could never get past David Pipe’s horse, but the pair of them came miles clear of their field, and The Package proved the merit of that form when he finished fourth in what looked like a top class running of the Hennessy Gold Cup on his next run off an 8lb higher mark.
Michel Le Bon gets to race off just a 4lb higher mark at Chepstow on Thursday. Nicholls resisted the temptation of running him in the Hennessy, preferring to keep him fresh for the Welsh National, his stated objective shortly after the Badger Ales race. With just four chases under his belt, he still has plenty of scope to progress, he should relish the soft ground, and he should improve for the step up in trip. Also, he won his maiden hurdle at Chepstow on his only visit to the Welsh track, a factor which is unusually important in the Welsh National, with seven of the last 10 winners having won at the track before.
With top weight Tidal Bay – a stable companion of Michel Le Bon’s – apparently on track for the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown, it looks like the weights are going to go up quite considerably, and that is not ideal for Michel Le Bon. However, most of his main market rivals are in a similar quandary, and a hefty burden in the Welsh National is not an insurmountable obstacle any more. Synchronised won the race under 11st 6lb two years ago, while Halcon Genelardais won it under 11st 3lb in 2006, and nearly won it again under 11st 10lb the following year. Also, four of the last six winners were rated 142 or higher, so a rating of 144 is just about perfect.
Sona Sasta and Viking Blond look like the most obvious beneficiaries of a rise in the weights, but Michel Le Bon still represents some value at 10.0.
The King George seems to get more difficult the deeper you delve into it, now that Sizing Europe is out and the ground is shaping up to be good to shallow. My starting point was that Long Run was too short at 3.5, but such are the question marks about just about every one of his rivals that it is difficult not to be drawn back towards him.
Cue Card is the obvious alternative, but he has to prove his stamina. He is bred to stay well, and he won a Cheltenham Bumper, a stamina race, as a four-year-old, but he has lots of pace, he won a bumper over a mile and six furlongs, he finished second in an Arkle and he has never gone beyond two and a half miles in a race before. You can be sure that, if he is to win a King George run on soft ground, he is going to have to stay every yard of three miles.
Riverside Theatre goes well fresh, but he has a huge absence to overcome, and he had had a prep race before the race two years ago, when he finished second to Long Run. As well as that, he probably just about stays three miles, and you may need to stay further in order to win the race this year.
Kauto Stone still has to prove that he is up to this class – he has 10lb and 11lb to find with the top horses on official ratings – while Finian’s Rainbow has to bounce back from a desperately disappointing run at Ascot last time. Grands Crus would be of major interest if the horse who won the Feltham Chase last year shows up, but after two disappointing runs and a wind operation, that is not certain.
Sir Des Champs is not a certain runner, he also has the Lexus option, and there is a small chance that he is better going left-handed than he is going right, while Captain Chris wasn’t good enough last year and is surely better on better ground.
Champion Court is interesting at a big price, he has to prove his stamina also, but his inflated odds allows you to at least consider taking the chance. Same with For Non Stop. Another maybe.
And then we’re all the way back to Long Run. Again. But surely he’s too short and too obvious.
And so it goes on.
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