I backed Rangitoto during the week for the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown today in the hope that Oscara Dara would run in the Welsh Champion (Handicap) Hurdle instead, so was delighted when the news emerged on Thursday morning that, indeed, Nicky Henderson’s horse would go to Ffos Las. Then they cancelled the hurdle races at Sandown, and it was all for nought.
My initial intention was to get with Oscara Dara for the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He won the Lanzarote Hurdle with a lot more in hand than the three-and-a-half-length winning margin. He travelled like the best horse in the race from a long way out, and that fact that he was able to get kick-started again after making a momentum-halting mistake at the final flight told you that he had plenty of energy left. The handicapper raised him a stone for that, but what was he gonna do?
He is only a 4.5 shot for this afternoon’s contest, however, and that is short. He may well be better than a handicapper, but he is going to have to be graded class if he is going to concede 9lb and more to some really interesting rivals. Also, Captain Sunshine might have beaten him had he not fallen at the last in the Lanzarote, and it might not have been that strong a renewal of the race. Oscara Dara is an exciting horse, no question, but he is popular now, and 4.5 is short.
Tanerko Emery could be very good, he is highly progressive and he has been impressive in winning his last two races in his tongue-tie. Also, he is owned by Dai Walters, Ffos Las supremo who won this race last year with Oscar Whisky when it wasn’t a handicap, so you can be sure that he has been trained for this race from a while back.
However, he was rewarded with an 11lb hike from the handicapper for his latest win at Lingfield, in a race that is not working out well, and he is significantly up in grade today. He may be progressive enough to be able to cope with all that, and he could improve again for the step up to two and a half miles but, like Oscara Dara, he is short at 4.5. It’s only about 2.25 about the pair of them coupled and, at those odds, and with so many other horses with chances running for you, it might pay to be a layer than a backer.
This is a strong race. The two Alan King horses are both interesting. Balder Succes wasn’t beaten that far by Zarkandar in the Elite Hurdle on his debut this term before he went to Haydock and beat Hollow Tree impressively, but he was disappointing in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time, so you have to forgive him that.
Choc Thornton obviously has, it looks like he has chosen to ride Balder Succes in front of Medinas, but it can’t have been an easy decision. Runner-up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Kempton in November, Medinas ran a cracker to finish fourth behind the hugely exciting pair At Fishers Cross and Inish Island over three miles at Cheltenham’s December meeting, giving both of them weight. He is only six, he still has plenty of scope for progression, and the handicapper has left him on his mark of 140.
One of the main worries with both Balder Succes and Medinas is the form of the Alan King horses. He has just had one winner from 10 runners in the last two weeks, and a couple of the King horses have run disappointingly recently, including Walkon, Bless The Wings and Ardlui. It has to be a concern. However, Midnight Appeal did go close in a jumpers’ bumper at Kempton last week and those concerns are factored into Medinas’ odds of 11. His odds are probably inflated because of the fact that he will be ridden by Wayne Hutchinson and not Choc Thornton, but Hutchinson is a high-class rider, an under-rated rider, and Medinas is worth having on side at 11.
The other horse who looks over-priced is The Romford Pele. Like Medinas, his odds have probably been inflated at least a little because of the fact that it appears that he has been shunned by a top rider. AP McCoy has ridden Rebecca Curtis’ horse in all but one of his eight races, including in four bumpers. However, it would have been difficult for AP to have turned down the ride on the favourite in the race Oscara Dara, and he would have had to have done some wasting – although not quite as much as he did last weekend – to get down to 10st 4lb. As well as that, Patrick Corbett is a good rider who claims 7lb and who rode the Accordion gelding to victory last time at Chepstow.
The Romford Pele jumped well on that occasion, and he stayed on really well over the last two flights to beat Sin Bin, the pair of them clear. He relished the soft ground that day, and he seemed to appreciate the return to a left-handed track and the step up to two and a half miles.
He has been raised 3lb for that, and he is 6lb out of the handicap today, but he is progressive enough to take that type of hike in his stride. He is only six, and has raced just four times over hurdles in his life. Also, he was a good bumper horse – he was seventh in the Cheltenham Bumper – for whom an effective mark today of 134 should be more than workable. Racing over two and a half miles again today at a left-handed track on heavy ground, he is a player.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
