BETDAQ’s Greg Walker is back with an in-depth preview of tonight’s Copa Del Rey Final 2012-2013 between Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid which is live on Sky.
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He now previews Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid…..
La Liga
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
KO 20:30, Friday
Winner’s medal anyone….?
The European managerial merry go round is travelling at full speed these past few weeks. Sir Alex has retired to be replaced by David Moyes. Mancini fired from Manchester City supposedly to be replaced by Malaga’s Pellegrini (although not a certainty I feel) and Rafa Benitez will be making way for Real Madrid’s Jose Mourhino. As mentioned in one of my previous articles Mourhino has been angling for a move away from Madrid for a number of months. This temperamental love affair was all but over on the day ‘Mou’ dropped Real Madrid’s favourite son and captain, Iker Casilas. The self-proclaimed ‘Special One’ has one more task on his hand’s with Los Blancos and he will be hoping to go out with some silverware on Friday night although should his team succeed You can bet short odds that this is one winner’s medal that he WILL be thrown away!
El Derbi Madrileno….
This Friday night Real Madrid’s Santiago Bernabeu stadium plays host to one of the highlights of the Spanish football season, the Copa Del Rey Final. This year’s final has the added attraction of being ‘El Derbi Madrileno’ as it is Madrid city rivals Real and Atletico whom have made it to the final. Real Madrid come into this final as short priced favourites as they not only have the luxury of home advantage but also maintain huge psychological advantage over their fierce rivals. I am generally not one for reviewing past head to heads as they bear little impact on predicting the outcome of a game however this rivalries head to head is very relevant. In the last forty one games played Real have won twenty nine, there were nine draws and Atletico have a shocking record with a meagre three victories. On this reading alone one can understand the view of the odds makers and the short price offered on Mourhino’s men.
Fan’s Victory….?
Whilst the stat above is interesting and I do like my history (I watch Spartacus!) I feel that Atletico Madrid have their own little psychological advantage for the first time ever in a Madrid Derby. To start with Atletico Madrid clearly have a very unified squad, Real Madrid do not. All of Atletico’s players are playing for their manager, Real Madrid’s are definitely not. Atletico succeeded in their number one target this season, securing Champion’s League football for next Season and are one match away from their number two target, winning the Copa Del Rey. In contrast Real Madrid lost La Liga decisively and were embarrassed in the Champion’s League by the second best team in Germany. At the start of this season the ‘Copa Del Rey’ would have been an after thought for Mourhino and the Madrid president however they are here now and it will be the Real Madrid fans, not Mourhino, who may have the biggest influence on pushing the Real starting eleven towards victory….that they want.
Mourhino v Pepe….!
There are a number match of ups in this game with none bigger than Ronaldo v Falcao. In La Liga this season Ronaldo has scored thirty four and Falcao on twenty eight. Both are similar with strong physique, very quick, good with both feet, powerful headers of the ball and excellent free kick takers. Ronaldo has a major advantage in his amazing dribbling skills and ability to go past players which is the only skill lacking with Falcao. Goalkeepers on both sides will also come to the fore with Atletico’s Thibaut Courtois in exceptional form this season whilst Real Madrid’s recent signing Diego Lopez has settled in well although it is the Belgian whom I would rather have in my team. On the defensive issue it is Atletico again with the advantage as they will play their tried and trusted back four of Godin, Luis, Juanfran and Miranda but for Real Madrid this is a bit of a headache. It is well known now that Mourhino has fallen out with yet another player, this time influential defender Pepe. The recent public war of words between ‘Mou’ and Pepe has resulted in the reliable defender being dropped and with Raphael Varane now out injured what does Mourhino do? Based on Mourhino’s history (stubbornness!) it is unlikely that he will recall Pepe leaving the door open for thirty five year old Ricardo Carvallho. Another headache for the defence is Sergio Ramos, the skipper has not played for three games with a supposed hamstring injury and will be a surprise return, although for a final he may be risked. Albiol, Coentrao and Nacho are the others in the running for a starting place.
Midfield magicians….
On the pitch Atletico have the advantage from the back and both sides look fairly matched up front so this leaves us with the midfield to asses. Their is no doubt which team has the advantage here and that is clearly Real Madrid. Diego Simeone must be a little fearful to receive the Real Madrid team sheet as Mourhino has an abundance of midfielders to choose from capable of breaking down the tightest defences. Mesut Ozil, Luka Modric, Kaka, the brilliant Angel di Maria and of course the imperious Xavi Alonso, one slide pass from this genius and it could be lights out for Atletico. Sami Khedeira may just get the nod over Michael Essien to bring a bit of physicality to the Los Blancos side as this will be needed just as much as the flair against a very fair but physical Atletico outfit. Real Madrid have scored fourteen goals in their last four games and with this skilffull set of midfielders it easy to see why.
As mentioned above the odd historical statistic can have a bearing on a team’s mental state going into a big game. There is no doubt that all this week in Madrid the Atletico players will have seen in newspapers, TV and heard on car radio the disastrous record they have against Real Madrid. In their most recent clash, just five weeks ago at home, Atletico went in front early, were well in control but somehow contrived to lose the game by two goals to one. That game for me was the closest Atletico came to beating their rivals for a long time however I do believe that Los Colcheneros will improve on that effort again in the final. Overall the Real Madrid team look better on paper BUT Diego Simeone must focus on Real’s weak point and that is their lack of unity and possible clarity of what they must do on the pitch. Diego Costa will have a huge influence on this game for Atletico as he is the king of winding opponents up and extracting soft free kicks. I do feel an Atletico goal may come from a dead ball play. On the overall picture it is clear that Real Madrid are deserved favourites however this is a much more evenly matched game than the odds makers would have You believe and may Go the distance. When the expert odds makers make a very rare mistake….well we know what we must do.
Betting on BETDAQ-Greg’s Tips:
BACK 2 POINTS on ATLETICO MADRID to be the OUTRIGHT WINNER @ 4.3
PROFIT TO DATE: 25.87 points
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