Houston Texans (3-4, 4-3 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (2-5, 2-4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Houston -3 (42)
Significant Injuries
Houston: LB Brian Cushing (questionable– knee), LB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable– knee), LB Brooks Reed (questionable– groin), LB John Simon (questionable– ankle), LB Jeff Tarpinian (out– knee), CB Darryl Morris (out– ankle)
Tennessee: LB Quentin Groves (questionable– ankle), CB Coty Sensabaugh (doubtful– knee), TE Taylor Thompson (doubtful– knee)
Recent Trends
Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Houston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
Houston is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC South opponents
Tennessee is 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. AFC South opponents
Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 home games
The UNDER is 10-3 in Houston’s last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last 5 games vs. AFC South opponents
The UNDER is 7-2 in Tennessee’s last 9 games overall
The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans have been a very competitive team this season, hovering around .500 all year despite a difficult schedule that has pitted them against 4 consecutive opponents with winning records. Now they get the Titans, a team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games and will be starting their third different quarterback of the season. This is an obvious mismatch.
2. Houston has a tough defense that ranks 11th in points allowed and is led by J.J. Watt, the NFL’s best defensive player. This week Watt and friends (and “friends” may include Jadeveon Clowney for the first time since Week 1) will face a rookie quarterback making his first career start– Tennessee’s Zach Mettenberger. Protecting Mettenberger’s blind side will be a rookie left tackle… this could get really, really ugly.
3. Tennessee is the single worst home team in the NFL, covering only once in their last 11 home games. They average just 17.3 points per game this season, they’re starting a wide-eyed rookie at quarterback, and their defense struggles stopping the run (123.7 rush ypg allowed), which isn’t a good thing when you’re about to face the run-heavy Texans. There just doesn’t seem to be anything to like about the Titans in this spot.
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Titans just aren’t as bad as people seem to think they are– they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 games, true, but those two losses came by 3 combined points. They’re undervalued as a home ‘dog against the struggling Texans, who have lost 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5.
2. Tennessee has decided to go with rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback this week, and based on what we saw out of Mettenberger in the preseason that’s probably a wise decision. He couldn’t ask for a much friendlier circumstance to start his career, either: a home game against a soft defense that ranks 26th in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. Don’t be surprised if the rookie makes a splash this week.
3. The Texans have been terrible in division games lately, covering just once in their last 8 opportunities, and their offense has been stuck in the muck this season thanks to underwhelming play from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Toss in a banged-up defense and a history of playing down to their competition (2-5 ATS last 7 vs. losing teams), and there’s just not much to like about Houston here.
Prediction
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