Picking one winner from 28 is tough, especially in a competitive handicap writes Peter Webb from Bet Angel. But imagine being able to pick just one winner from a range of selections in a market. A process called ‘dutching’ allows you to do just that, ensuring you have a better chance of a profiting.
When placing a traditional back bet, you simply choose a stake and place a bet at the best available odds. When ‘dutching’, instead of putting £10 on something at 16’s; you nominate how much you would like to win then pick a number of selections that you think could win. Once you have made your selections, the dutching tool in Bet Angel will do some clever maths to work out how to achieve your bet and will give you the stake required to achieve your objective.
In a ten runner field, for example, you may want to win £10 by picking any five runners to win. Once you make your selections you just click the ‘place bet’ button and Bet Angel takes care of the rest.
You can go a step further on Bet Angel than traditional dutching tools by nominating your profit by runner. So it’s possible to construct a back bet that says something along the lines of, ‘I want to win £50 if the favourite wins, break even on the second favourite, lose £5 if the third comes in and I want to win £20 on the next three’. This gives you huge flexibility on finding a winner and more importantly, on your terms. Given the low over-round available on exchanges it’s a great way of picking a winner.
How the book% creates the opportunity
Competition is fierce on the exchanges and this means very little money is lost to either side of the book. On a traditional sportbook the over-round, the theoretical margin paid to the bookmaker, can be large; but on an exchange this can be tiny. If the over round is 100% then it means that the market was ‘perfect’ and no money was won or lost (before commission) to either side of the book. The closer to 100% you get the more chance you have of winning in the long term as the insight you require to overcome the small margin against you, is so much smaller. Changing your focus from picking one winner to one of several means you stand a much better chance of winner and this edge being in your favour.
Dutching at Cheltenham
If you had ‘dutched’ the top ten runners at Cheltenham over the last five years you would have made money. But the devil is in the detail however. Favourites have won 6,4,8,9 & 9 races at Cheltenham in the past five years. Against SP they won 27.07% of times versus the implied chance of 26.02%. In layman’s terms, they won more often than they should. But there the run ends, as you start to extend out the order of favouritism the numbers head into reverse. Backing the rank outsiders doesn’t work either, but backing at larger prices and avoiding the favourites and big outsiders has delivered value at Cheltenham for a numbers of years.
Summary
You can deploy these strategies with ease or even fully automatically using Betdaq Angel. We also have a dutching tool created specifically for this strategy. Both are available for free on Betdaq.
Download the software at www.betdaqangel.com or www.dutchingsoftware.com
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