PRESSURE DAY FOR WILLIE MULLINS: SHAMROCK looks at the star-studded day one card at Cheltenham and it’s a massive day for Willie Mullins. He started the Festival with a flyer last year and stable stars Hurricane Fly and Quevega are his headline acts on Tuesday.
Willie Mullins suffered a reverse on Sunday when his final runner before the Festival, Lockstockandbarrel, was beaten soundly into 3rd at 4/11.
Why do I mention this at the start of the Festival ? Surely one result at Naas can have no bearing whatsoever on whether Ireland’s champion trainer will get the numerous expected winners this week? Correct. But it also does remind us of one thing. Training winners and being in form can never be taken for granted. Momentum is a fickle commodity. Whilst my personal betting this week will largely depend on how well Ireland does – for that read Willie Mullins in the main – I’m certainly not getting stuck into backing him for top trainer at odds on because that’s the classic case of too much expectation already being built into the price.
None of his runners, as appealing as they look on paper, are past the post yet. This is a long week and a great week. But I’m not presuming anything. It’s Cheltenham after all.
Have a great Festival.
1:30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+, Class 1, 2m 110y, 18 runners)
The Cheltenham roar then let the games begin. We were treated to an incredible race last year for the curtain raiser and it was a great start for Team Mullins when Champagne Fever prevailed by 1/2 a length to beat My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. All three have massive hopes of winning again in their respective races this year: the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle. Whether we see such a vintage renewal today is hard to predict but in the trials Irving and Vautour have impressed the most and it’s clear to see why they are at the top of the market. Irving has won all four of his starts by comfortable margins and simply didn’t come out of second gear when winning the Dovecote at Kempton last time out. vautour has achieved more, in that he won the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices Hurdle last time out and is the pick of Ruby Walsh. I have lingering feelings that the other Willie Mullins trained runners in the race can’t be dismissed lightly so am backing his trio for equal stakes.
2:05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+, Class 1, 2m, 9 runners)
The aforementioned Champagne Fever goes for a remarkable third win at the Festival under different codes, bumper, hurdles and fences. I’d love him to do it, but I can’t part with cash today as I think the odds are too short and there are too many questions remaining about his run at Leopardstown over Christmas when he finished third, at 8/15, to Defy Logic with today’s big rival Trifolium back in second. Champagne Fever has plenty of natural talent, we know that, but is still inexperienced over fences and it showed last time out. Any errors today are likely to be punished hard.
2:40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo+, Class 1, 3m 110y, 24 runners)
I think the Irish have a great chance here but we’re not talking, for once, about Willie Mullins !! The Tony Martin trained Wrong Turn appeals, win and place, at around 15/4.6 on BETDAQ. His two recent wins have been by close margins but he still looks an improver and will be suited by the step-up in distance.
3:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (4yo+, Class 1, 2m 110y, 9 runners)
On paper we are in for an absolute treat and the majority of observers have already declared, in advance, that this is their race of the entire meeting. It looks a cracker and we have to start with Hurricane Fly. 21/24 over hurdles and bidding to win this for a third time. He comes into this on the back of another win in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown where he dismissed today’s rivals Our Conor, Captain Cee Bee and Jezki. On that form there is absolutely no reason to think that he can’t notch up his 20th Grade 1 and in doing so become the oldest winner of the race since Sea Pigeon in 1981. I think he will confirm that form. Sometimes it’s all too easy to try and find reasons why beaten horses will reverse the form because of blah, blah, blah that you forget the blindingly obvious that Hurricane Fly beat them fairly and squarely and, in my opinion, is likely to do so again. English trained The New One and My Tent Or Yours are clearly huge dangers but I’m staying loyal with the guy who’s been there, done it and certainly wears the t-shirt. He is my day one nap.
4:00 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (4yo+, Class 1, 2m 4f, 16 runners)
Quevega is a a brilliant mare but for all her achievements not the household name she should be because she is kept so much in cotton wool. But it’s a strategy that’s worked and she’s going for an incredible sixth consecutive win in this race which will surpass Golden Miller’s Gold Cup record and surely she would then start to get the praise she so much deserves? It doesn’t look a strong renewal but I can’t back her at odds on. However, I’m sure she’ll trade bigger at some point, so, if you are planning a bet, try getting matched at 2.49 in the run.
4:40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase (Listed Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (5yo+, Class 1, 4m, 15 runners)
The Willie Mullins trained Suntiep was a fortunate winner last time out but it’s a race I’m struggling to have view on – certainly in terms of a bet.
5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) (5yo+, Class 1, 2m 4f 110y, 20 runners)
The Desssie Hughes trained Art Of Logistics looks interesting in the place market. He still needs to improve and is only a small bet in the day one closer.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
1.30 3 points win on each VAUTOUR, VALSEUR LIDO and WICKLOW BRAVE
2.40 2 points win and place WRONG TURN
3.20 10 points win (NAP) HURRICANE FLY
5.15 2 points place ART OF LOGISTICS
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