Atlanta Falcons (5-7, 5-7 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3, 7-4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -13 (55)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: WR Roddy White (questionable– ankle), CB Robert Alford (out– wrist)
Green Bay: CB Sam Shields (questionable– concussion), LB Jamari Lattimore (out– ankle), DE Luther Robinson (out– calf)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Green Bay
Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record
The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last 4 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 6-1 in Green Bay’s last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons are a division-leading team that’s won 3 of their past 4 games and this is a huge game for them, as a win would put them firmly in control of the NFC South. Giving a team like that 13 points is outrageous in any circumstance, regardless of how good the other team is, but it’s especially silly in this case because Green Bay is far from a perfect team– they’ve lost 3 times this season and nearly lost at home last week. The betting public has never been more in love with the Packers, so sharp bettors know it’s time to “sell high”.
2. Atlanta ranks 10th in total offense, 11th in points scored, and 5th in pass yards per game. They’re led by an elite quarterback in his prime (Matt Ryan), and he’s surrounded by two of the NFL’s best 20 receivers (Julio Jones and Roddy White). In other words, the Falcons have an offense that can do some serious damage. They shouldn’t have any trouble lighting up the scoreboard against a Packers team that ranks 23rd in total defense.
3. The Atlanta defense has improved tremendously since the beginning of the season and is now one of the NFC’s better units. The Falcons have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 18 points or fewer and have surrendered just 20 points per game over the past six weeks. They won’t be able to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense– nobody has been able to stop Rodgers lately, after all– but they’ll provide enough resistance to keep the game close. Thanks to the inflated 13-point number, “close” is more than enough for Atlanta bettors.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers are the best team in the NFL– they’ve won 8 of their past 9 games and they beat New England last week, who is generally considered the best team in the AFC. They’ve won 3 of their past 4 road games, but they’re not playing on the road this week, they’re playing at Lambeau Field, where they’ve won all 6 of their games this season and have gone 5-0-1 against the spread. Four of their 6 wins have come by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, all four of Atlanta’s road losses have come by double-digits. Is the 13-point number starting to make a little sense now?
2. The Green Bay offense has been unstoppable over the past two months, especially at home, where they’re averaging an astounding 40.8 points per game this season. Aaron Rodgers is currently the frontrunner for league MVP, and he’s surrounded by a capable receiving corps and a bruising young running back in Eddie Lacy. What happens when an offense like this faces a team that ranks last in the NFL in both total defense and passing defense? Well, we’re about to find out…
3. The normally-explosive Atlanta offense has been crippled this season by terrible offensive line play, which is why it’s now been 9 games since the Falcons have reached 30 points. The Green Bay defense has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, and based on what we’ve seen from both teams lately I think the Packers have a good chance at making it five in a row. If they do that, there’s no way the Falcons can stay within 13 points.
Prediction
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