San Francisco 49ers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3, 1-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -3 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
San Francisco: OT Anthony Davis (questionable– knee), TE Vernon Davis (questionable– back), C Marcus Martin (questionable– knee), LB Nick Moody (questionable– hamstring), CB Tramaine Brock (out– toe)
St. Louis: DT Alex Carrington (questionable– knee), LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (questionable– knee), C Barrett Jones (questionable– back), CB Trumaine Johnson (out– knee), CB Brandon McGee (out– foot)
Recent Trends
San Francisco is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 Monday night games
San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games
St. Louis is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday night games
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 5-0 in San Francisco’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in St. Louis’ last 4 games vs. NFC West opponents
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners are better than the Rams in every conceivable way. They have a better record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they score more points and they allow fewer points. The Rams do not have a single identifiable advantage in this game, which makes a bet on San Francisco the only sensible play.
2. St. Louis has been terrible on defense this season, surrendering 29.8 points per game. They’ve been especially bad against the run, as only one team (Green Bay) has allowed more rushing yards per game than the 152.5 that the Rams have given up. And here come the 49ers, who rank 3rd in the league in rushing with 145 yards per game on the ground. This could get ugly.
3. The Rams are going with young Austin Davis at quarterback, who has started just three games in his career and has yet to face a top-20 defense. That will change on Monday night when the ferocious San Francisco defense comes to town, a unit that ranks 2nd in total defense and 3rd against the pass. It’s going to be a long night for the youngster.
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The 49ers have been less-than-impressive over their last four games, losing twice and picking up two narrow victories. They clearly aren’t as good as they have been in years past, and the Rams are a team on the rise. Don’t let their record fool you– in their last two games the Rams faced Dallas and Philadelphia, two 1-loss teams, and they nearly won both games. They are much better than their 3-1 record indicates, while the Niners are overrated and overvalued.
2. The San Francisco offense has struggled this season, ranking 21st in points scored and a dismal 28th in pass yards per game. They’ll have trouble moving the ball against a St. Louis defense that has allowed fewer passing yards than any team in the league.
3. The Rams have to love what they’ve seen out of young quarterback Austin Davis this season, as Davis ranks 6th in the NFL in completion percentage and the Rams rank 8th in total offense. On Monday night Davis will have a prime opportunity to win the respect of the football-watching world when he faces off against a San Francisco defense that is missing two of its best players, linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman. After what we’ve seen out of him recently, I wouldn’t be betting against the kid.
Prediction
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