Great to have the NFL back, isn’t it? The only thing better than kicking back on a Sunday evening and watching the world’s most exciting sport is making money while doing so, and we happily accomplished that task in Week 1, winning four of our five bets.
This week’s slate features several compelling matchups, starting with tonight’s clash of AFC West rivals Denver and Kansas City (KC -3, 41.5). The Broncos beat Baltimore last week but Peyton Manning looked a bit shaky and did nothing to quiet the whispers that he’s no longer the player he was even two or three years ago. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were very impressive in dismantling Houston on the road, showcasing an offense that seems to have a bit more punch now that Jeremy Maclin is in the fold and Jamaal Charles is fully healthy once again. The Broncos have covered in five of their last six trips to Kansas City but I lean Chiefs tonight, though it isn’t one of my favorite games of the week.
Which games might those be, you ask? How about these:
Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (Car -3.5, 40)
These two teams had very different experiences in Week 1, as Carolina went on the road and pulled out a double-digit win over Jacksonville while Houston was beaten soundly (more soundly than the final score would indicate) at home by Kansas City. This has created a situation in Week 2 that eagle-eyed bettors are always on the lookout for: the superior team is getting points. Make no mistake: Carolina’s win over a wretched Jacksonville team last week was by no means impressive. The Panthers gained just 263 total yards against a Jaguars defense that ranked 26th in the league in yards allowed last season and were only saved by Jacksonville’s own offensive ineptitude. The Texans may not be an offensive juggernaut, but they’re lightyears better than Jacksonville on that side of the ball and they really got into a nice rhythm when Ryan Mallett entered the game last week, which is probably why head coach Bill O’Brien named Mallett the team’s new starting quarterback yesterday. But the matchup I really like here isn’t Mallett and the Houston offense against the Carolina defense (though the fact that the Panthers’ best defender– linebacker Luke Kuechly– may miss this week’s game with a concussion certainly doesn’t hurt), it’s J.J. Watt and the Texans’ D against the extraordinarily one-dimensional Carolina offense. Cam Newton isn’t a great pocket passer, but I’m not sure Joe Montana could succeed with the Panthers’ current receiving corps. And the offensive line just isn’t good enough for Carolina to be a dominant run-first team, so Newton will continually be asked to make something out of nothing. He succeeded against the lowly Jags last week, but I’m betting his luck runs out on Sunday. Recommendation: Houston +3.5 at 1.82
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -6, 45)
The 49ers were a popular pick to backslide this season but they looked like the hard-nosed team we all remember in a comfortable Week 1 win over Minnesota. That doesn’t mean the preseason concerns were without merit, however, and I have a feeling that we’ll see some of those concerns manifest themselves this week when the Niners go on the road to face an explosive Pittsburgh team. After all, it’s not like the San Francisco secondary was really challenged by the pedestrian Minnesota passing attack, and the offense certainly wasn’t put under any pressure to keep pace, as the Vikings managed just 3 points in the entire game. All that will change this week. For all their flaws (and they do have flaws, especially on defense), the Steelers do one thing really well: they can pass the football. They ranked second in the NFL in passing offense in 2014, and based on their performance last week– when Ben Roethlisberger torched the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots to the tune of 351 yards– it looks like they’re going to be nearly impossible to stop once again. I expect Big Ben to carve up the 49ers defense just like he did with New England’s, and the Niners don’t have a Tom Brady to match Roethlisberger score-for-score. This one could get ugly. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -6 at 1.92
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears (Ari -2, 45.5)
*deep breath* Okay, sometimes in life we have to go against our bedrock principles because we know, deep down, that it’s the right thing to do. These are always moments of introspection, moments in which we question the very nature of our thought processes and set of beliefs. In times like these, it’s best to rely on things that we know to be true: 1. The Arizona defense isn’t as good up front as they were last season, 2. The offense is still very one-dimensional, and that dimension– the passing game– is reliant on a 35-year old quarterback with bad knees whose leading receiver is just about as old as he is and has the speed to prove it, 3. John Fox has made a career out of quickly turning bad teams into contenders, and if his team’s performance last week against division heavyweight Green Bay is any indication, he’s well on the way to doing it again. Ahhhhh. Just repeating those facts over and over again like a mantra gives me a sense of peace, calming my nerves for what I’m about to do– Bet. On. Jay. Cutler. *collapses, shakes uncontrollably* Recommendation: Chicago +2 at 1.92
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Mia -6, 41.5)
Well they fooled me for about one quarter of game action. Shame on me. As some of you may know, I live in the Jacksonville area, formerly hosted a sports talk radio show there, and am intimately familiar with the Jags organization from top to bottom. I have been screaming “Fade the Jags” from the rooftops for the past four years, and that strategy has paid off quite nicely, as the general public has been slow to catch on to just how bad this team is. Everyone knows they’re bad, but too much “they’re building the right way” propaganda from the media has clouded people’s minds and made betting against the Jags on a weekly basis one of the most profitable handicapping strategies in the known world. And yet, shamefully, I too drank a bit of the kool-aid prior to last week’s game. While I didn’t bet on the Jags (I may be dumb but I’m not crazy) and had only picked them to win 5 games this season in my Handicapper’s Guide, I did have a sneaking feeling that they would beat Carolina and even nudged a couple of my friends in that direction. I THEN WATCHED THE GAME. I’m now enthusiastically backing the Dolphins this week, and I suggest you do the same. Recommendation: Miami -6 at 1.96
2015 Record: 4-1
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