THERE’S GOLD IN BETDAQ VALUE: Gold and Silver today but don’t get short-changed! Stick with BETDAQ for value odds. Last year the bookies cleaned up on the Silver Cup with a 131% SP Total, then topped that with a Gold Cup swipe of 142%. The same races were trading at 109 and 107% in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 83-14: Daqman’s bets in the Gold and Silver were on offer at 29.0, 24.0, 22.0 and 17.0, and he also challenges Pricewise in the 2.00 Ayr and 2.50 Newbury, with the scores Daqman 83, Pricewise 14.
29.0 LAD LIKELY TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER WIND OP
2.35 Ayr (Silver Cup) As if you needed a reminder of how hard it is at this time of year, Go Far won yesterday’s Bronze Cup for Alan Bailey after the horse had gone 10 consecutive races without success and the trainer had chalked up 47 turf losers in a row, no winners, in 2015.
Any draw bias was created by most of the jockeys piling over to the middle-to-low side of the track (in fact, the result by stall was 13, 3, 22, 10). Then the 5f South Ayrshire Cup went to 12, 9, 16, 1.
So, is a low-to-middle draw the edge we need in the Silver and Gold today? We certainly need something: in the first leg, 25 horses are separated by only 6lb!
Maybe we should check out unusual jockey bookings: Fran Berry for Fast Track; Pat Smullen for Terentum Star?
Or is the clue jockeys who have defected from those? Graham Gibbons, usual rider of Fast Track, switches to Perfect Pasture (stall 5), in his saddle for the first time since last winter when he won on him at Kempton.
Paul Mulrennan has swerved several possibilities in favour of Fendale, who was returning from a two-month break when an excellent third at York recently, and Paul Hanagan prefers penalised hat-trick seeker George Bowen.
Graham Lee, who landed a treble on Shared Equity last year, returns to the horse with its yard in cracking form, Graham himself riding two of its three winners from only eight starters in the last fortnight.
Ted Durcan’s form in the last 18 months on recently-returned Johara (trainer 2-2 at this meeting) is 1121. Daniel Tudhope is 141 on Eccleston (stall 13) in that time.
The grey Northgate Lad would be favourite if he hadn’t run badly since York in June, when he was fourth to Haydock Sprint winner, Twilight Son, with Stewards Cup scorer Magical Memory just in front of him in third.
The Lad has had a wind op since the last day, and offers of 29.0 BETDAQ early mouse are tempting. As a 7f winner, Shared Equity (17.0) is one of the few who will be staying on through the cavalry charge. Those two bets put Silvestre de Sousa and Graham Lee on my side.
GOOD HEAVENS! FAHEY OUTSIDERS FOR GOLD
3.45 Ayr (Gold Cup) Pat Smullen, who rode one of three Kevin Ryan winners of this since 2007, takes the mount on the stable’s consistent Lexington Abbey, bottomweight in an 11lb handicap and drawn 7.
In adjacent stalls are unbeaten Don’t Touch and Toofi, who ran Magical Memory to threeparts of a length in the Stewards Cup, with Rivellino (badly drawn in third).
I might easily have mentioned today’s Gold medallist already from those four, but we’ll be scrambling to change our minds once the Silver is run and we are making fresh deductions about the stalls and the ground.
However – famous last words – I may have found a key that will unlock this race and, in so doing, defy any stalls bias (and/or the jockey swerve to one side of the track).
It is this: the most recent five Gold Cup winners consecutively had all won their last race over 7f.
Only Buckstay, Glory Awaits, Heavens Guest, Highland Colori, Jack Dexter, Majestic Moon, Ninjago, Professor, Rene Mathis and Sound Advice have won at 7f.
I would discard Buckstay, Glory Awaits, Majestic Moon and Sound Advice as not being too slow to win a handicap at 6f, short of the required speed on today’s good ground.
But Richard Fahey’s Heaven’s Guest (22.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) has the running style that will suit this race, and this season has finished in front of Toofi, Glory Awaits, Tanzeel, Rene Mathis and Majestic Moon.
He was giving a pound to stablemate Rene Mathis (24.0 this morning) when beaten little more than a length on the Newmarket July Course.
The pair are drawn in the middle, which seemed to be favoured yesterday. Clearly, we have to save on the same yard’s front-of-the-market Don’t Touch. He’s so obvious, and so well backed, that Fahey’s outsiders are bigger offers than they should be.
EAGLE TOP A GOLD BANKER IN THE ARC TRIAL
1.45 Newbury (Arc Trial) On a day of big-field lotteries, a gold banker (30 points) on Eagle Top should pay for your ‘daft bets’.
He’s been a nose up (Hardwicke Stakes) and a nose down (King George) on Postponed, who franked the form again in Paris last weekend.
2.00 Ayr (Firth of Clyde Stakes) Ann Duffield saves up her fire power for this, winning it twice in the last three seasons, but, through Unlit, there seems to be little to choose between her dual winner Silhuette and WhatdoIwantthatfor.
I said ‘dual winner’ because the one-run-one-win pair, Mustique and Priceless, have it to prove, however easily they won first time. It’s a two-year-old’s second run that tells the true story.
Good luck to Hayley Turner on Shaden but that one’s Bath conqueror was well outclassed yesterday. I shall chance a pound on Only Mine, who comes well into this if you draw a line through his messy race on the last day.
2.15 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) Strangely, only one southern-trained horse has won this in the last seven seasons!
And a Yorkshire one-two is on the cards today via Mark Johnston’s front-runner Whitman, with Richard Fahey’s Ribchester playing catch-me.
But I’m not so sure that Ribchester can confirm Gimcrack form with Raucous (slow start), Raucous having already won on the soft.
Log Out Island ran third in last week’s Flying Childers but has had a long season, and I see Raucous (only 3.75 as I write) overtaking these.
2.50 Newbury Three-year-olds do well in this; so does Luca Cumani with three wins in four years up to 2010, and Cambridgeshire-earmarked Laurence could now go on from his Beverley success on the last day. Well backed (to 8.40 at the time of writing).
3.10 Ayr (Doonside Cup) Mutakayyef and Manalapan are suspect after returning from long absences – second run back tells more – and again the three-year-olds appeal most.
Exosphere would be on a five-timer now but for soft ground being against him on his penultimate start, and Scottish need also be forgiven just the one start on the soft in France to figure strongly here. I dutched the two.
3.50 Newmarket (Cesarewitch Trial) At 11.5 on BETDAQ, it’s worth chancing that Sands Of Fortune can repeat his all-the-way Glorious Goodwood win.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except banker and bull’s-eye bets)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) EAGLE TOP (1.45 Newbury)
BET 2pts win and place ONLY MINE (2.00 Ayr)
BET 7pts win RAUCOUS (2.15 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 3pts win and place SHARED EQUITY and 1.75pts win and place NORTHGATE LAD (2.35 Ayr)
BET 2.7pts win LAURENCE (2.50 Newbury)
BET 4.75pts win EXOSPHERE and 3.7pts win SCOTTISH (3.10 Ayr)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): BET 2.3pts win and place HEAVEN’S GUEST and 2pts win and place RENE MATHIS, with 1pt win (stakes saver) DON’T TOUCH (3.45 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place SANDS OF FORTUNE (3.50 Newmarket)
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