Vegas Line Moves: Week 15
Las Vegas is the epicenter of NFL betting, so examining line moves and betting patterns at the biggest Vegas sportsbooks can be instructive. Here are three lines that have been on the move in Week 15:
* VegasInsider “consensus” data used
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas opening line: Cincinnati -2 Vegas current line: Cleveland -1
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -1.5
These teams met a month ago and it was a surprisingly one-sided affair, as the Browns cruised to a 24-3 win. That’s not the reason for the line move here, though– Cleveland coach Mike Pettine announced on Tuesday that Johnny Manziel would get the start at quarterback over Brian Hoyer, and that development that has energized bettors and prompted significant action on the Browns.
The enthusiasm is understandable, I guess, when you consider that Cleveland’s biggest problem in recent weeks has been substandard quarterback play, but it’s important to remember that Manziel is a rookie making his first career start. Cincinnati has struggled on defense at times this season, but they’re healthier now than they were a few weeks ago and, as a result, they’ve allowed 13 points or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games. While I know it’s tempting to get swept up in Johnny Football Mania, as bettors out in Vegas evidently have, I’m not sure it’s a wise move for the profit-minded bettor.
New York Jets @ Tennessee
Vegas opening line: Tennessee -2 Vegas current line: New York -2.5
BETDAQ Line: New York -2
Who’s eager to throw money at a 2-11 team that averages just 16.5 points per game and is led by a lame-duck head coach? Plenty of people, apparently! Jets money has been pouring into Vegas sportsbooks ever since this line was released on Sunday night, which has to be confusing to many who have seen the team play this season. Even though the last two losses have been competitive– 16-13 to Miami and 30-24, in overtime, to Minnesota– there are plenty of big-picture reasons to avoid the Jets like the plague: they have yet to win on the road this season, they seemed to quit in the second half of a 38-3 loss to Buffalo three weeks ago, their head coach has almost no chance of being retained, their quarterback leads the NFL in turnovers since the beginning of last season, they average fewer than 17 points per game yet allow nearly 27… the list goes on.
The Titans, though, have been even worse lately, and that’s where the line move comes in: it’s not faith in the Jets, it’s total lack of faith in the Titans. Tennessee has now lost 7 consecutive games and five of the losses have come by 14 points or more. The chance to bet against them in what basically amounts to a “pick ’em” situation is viewed by many as a can’t-miss opportunity, even if it means backing the dysfunctional Jets. And based on what we’ve seen out of the Titans over the past few weeks, I can’t say I blame anyone who feels that way. However, veteran quarterback Jake Locker may give Tennessee a better chance to win than rookie Zach Mettenberger, who had been starting before suffering a season-ending injury last week. While I’m certainly not endorsing a Titans bet, I’d advise caution with this one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas opening line: Seattle -7.5 Vegas current line: Seattle -10.5
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -10.5
If bettors are correct, this Sunday will mark the end of the era in which San Francisco/Seattle was the NFL’s greatest rivalry. Because if the Seahawks do what so many seem to think they’ll do– administer a humiliating beating to the sputtering Niners– the suspense and competitiveness that make a great rivalry will cease to exist in this matchup. Reports suggest that Jim Harbaugh will coach somewhere else next season, putting an end to the Harbaugh/Carroll component of the rivalry (anyone remember THIS?), and considering the recent on-field struggles they’ve endured the future direction of the 49ers franchise as a whole is certainly in doubt. A scenario like Seattle winning 7 of the next 8 matchups between these two teams isn’t implausible.
So… is that what’s going to happen? Is San Francisco’s recent wave of success (3 consecutive playoff appearances, a Super Bowl appearance in 2012) going to come crashing down hard in Seattle this week while hated enemy Richard Sherman laughs about it all? It could happen, but I’m not convinced. The 49ers rank 3rd in total defense so it’ll be tough for Seattle to break the game open, and I do believe “professional pride” comes into play in a situation like this: coming off a terrible loss, going on the road to face a hated rival, everyone counting you out, etc. This may be the end of San Francisco as a serious threat in the NFC West (for awhile, anyway), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Harbaugh and the boys and have one more good fight left in them.
