Arizona Cardinals (10-3, 9-4 ATS) @ St. Louis Rams (6-7, 7-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: St. Louis -4.5 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
Arizona: CB Antonio Cromartie (questionable– ankle), DT Ed Stinson (questionable– toe), G Paul Fanaika (out– ankle), S Tyrann Mathieu (out– thumb)
St. Louis: DE Chris Long (questionable– ankle)
Recent Trends
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
Arizona is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record
Arizona is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday night games
St. Louis is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record
St. Louis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Arizona’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in St. Louis’ last 5 home games
The OVER is 5-2 in St. Louis’ last 7 games vs. NFC West opponents
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. Yes, you saw this line correctly: a 6-7 team is a 4.5-point favorite over a 10-3 team. How can this be? The answer is simple: NFL observers have just seen the Rams put together the most dominant 2-game stretch the league has seen this season, as the team has not allowed a single point in 8 quarters while producing 76 points of their own. Bettors naturally want a piece of a team like that, which explains the inflated line. It’s critical to remember, though, that the two blowout victories came over Oakland and Washington, two of the NFL’s worst teams. The Cardinals are a first-place team coming off a win over a desperate Kansas City squad and they badly need a win this week to maintain their 1-game lead over Seattle. They’ll probably get it, just like they did when these teams met back in Week 10 (a 31-14 Arizona win). The wrong team may be favored here, and the line certainly shouldn’t be 4.5. An Arizona bet is the only sensible play.
2. The Cardinals have a dominant defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in points allowed and has surrendered 20 points or fewer in 8 of the team’s past 9 games. They shouldn’t have any problems with a Rams team that ranks 27th in total offense and starts an over-the-hill journeyman (Shaun Hill) at quarterback.
3. While the St. Louis defense looked like the ’85 Bears in handling inept offenses over the past two weeks, they’ve been far from perfect this season. As a matter of fact, the Rams have allowed 26 points or more a staggering 8 times this year, including in their Week 10 matchup with these very same Cardinals. Again we see that the last two weeks have distorted the NFL-betting world’s opinion of the Rams, but “recency bias” is something that sharp bettors are trained to guard against.
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The Rams are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winning their past two games by a combined score of 76-0. And before you think that they’ve just been beating up on the dregs of the league, it’s important to remember that over the past 7 weeks the Rams have notched wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver. This is one of the NFL’s best teams but their early-season struggles still linger in the minds of some, which is why they can be backed as a very reasonable 4.5-point home favorite. Sharp bettors will be all over this one.
2. The St. Louis defense has been absolutely dominant lately, pitching back-to-back shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14 and limiting the high-flying Denver offense to just 7 points in Week 11. The Arizona, offense, meanwhile, has been stuck in neutral ever since losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer to a season-ending knee injury a month ago. The Cardinals haven’t been able to run the ball all season (30th in rush ypg), and without Palmer they haven’t been able to pass it, either, which is why they’ve produced fewer than 20 points in 4 consecutive games.
3. The Cardinals are just 1-3 on the road this season with Drew Stanton at the helm, and that one win came against the lowly New York Giants. St. Louis, meanwhile, is an exceptionally good home team, especially when facing quality opposition: the Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with winning records.
Prediction
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