SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP: After such an action-packed stretch in the world of professional golf, when it seemed like we had a major, a WGC event, or a top-line Tour event every week, it feels a bit odd to have a second consecutive week of a player like Scottie Scheffler heading the market, but the Sanderson Farms Championship has produced some exciting finishes through the years, and in a lot of ways the Fall Series events are more meaningful this season than usual because we’ve now begun the official run-up to the Masters in November.
The PGA Tour has made a regular stop in Mississippi for decades, and this event was moved to the current venue– the Dick Wilson-designed Country Club of Jackson– prior to the 2014 staging. Over the past seven years we’ve seen two playoffs here and four champions prevail by 2 shots or fewer, so as mentioned above, this course has produced some drama and excitement. Sebastian Munoz topped Sung-jae Im on the first playoff hole last year for his first PGA Tour victory, and he’s back to defend, currently trading at 38.0 at BETDAQ.
The Country Club of Jackson is a 7,400 yard Bermuda-covered layout that features firm, fast, smallish greens but not much tee-to-green severity. The grabby Bermuda rough can be problematic, but there’s simply not enough danger out there to affect the guys who are striking it well, so scoring always ends up being fairly low here, with the winning number in the 20-under range. Both long and short hitters have prospered, so distance isn’t a prerequisite for success, but there’s one oddity that deserves a mention: for six straight years, ever since the event was moved to CC of Jackson, this tournament has been won by a first-time PGA Tour champion.
Well as luck would have it, the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market is rife with guys seeking their first victory, including Scottie Scheffler (12.0), Will Zalatoris (23.0), Sam Burns (27.0), and Cameron Davis (39.0). There are some vets mixed in there as well, and even some big names (hey, Sergio’s here! and so is Henrik Stenson!), but if the past is any indication, this might be a week for the new blood. With that in mind– and with a heavy heart after our man Adam Long’s Sunday fade in Puntacana last week– here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Cameron Davis (39.0)- Though he’s yet to become a household name, Davis has made his mark on the PGA Tour over the past year, logging four top-15s in 14 starts in 2020. The young Aussie is a well-rounded player, ranking 41st or better on Tour in driving distance, birdie average, sand save percentage, and greens in regulation percentage last season, and he’s coming off a solid week at the Safeway Open, where he finished T36 after closing with a Sunday 67. Like many Australian players, Davis is most comfortable on Bermuda grass– his best finish last season was a T8 at the Honda Classic– and he should know his way around CC of Jackson after shooting par or better in all four rounds of this tournament last year and finishing 28th. Davis fits the profile of a Sanderson Farms champion– an up-and-comer closing in on his first victory, with all the physical tools and course knowledge to get the job done. At nearly 40/1, he’s my favorite bet on the board this week.
Brian Harman (54.0)- Don’t look now, but Harman is quietly doing his thing again, making six straight cuts and logging three top-25s in that span. Because of the relatively small size and the firmness of the greens at CC of Jackson, scrambling and short game brilliance have always been an important part of success here, and Harman is a genius around the greens, ranking 9th in scrambling and 3rd in overall putting average last season. This will be his second appearance at this event and he played very well last year, finishing 14th and improving each day: 71-69-68-67. That means he should bring some confidence, course knowledge, and current form with him this week, making him a dangerous man at better than 50/1. Remember: unlike much of the field, Harman is a proven winner, and someone who has repeatedly thrived in difficult, high-profile situations. He’s a good value in this spot.
Denny McCarthy (90.0)- Since we’re already backing Harman this week, we may as well corner the market on great putters, and there’s not many folks walking the earth right now who can roll the rock like McCarthy, the 27-year old Virginia graduate who led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Putting last season. Unsurprisingly for someone who putts it so well, he’s also among the Tour leaders in birdie average, ranking 13th with 4.22 per round, so he should be well-suited for a birdie fest like the one that CC of Jackson usually produces. And indeed McCarthy has an excellent record in this event, finishing T18 last year and T7 in 2018, shooting a combined 24-under in his last eight rounds at CC of Jackson. He did miss the cut at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago, but he made 7 straight prior to that and finished T9 at the Wyndham just three starts ago, so it’s not like he’s been struggling. If you’re looking for a longshot with a good course history and a legitimate chance to win, look no further.
