Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, 4-3 ATS) @ Houston Texans (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Philadelphia -2 (49)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: C Jason Kelce (questionable– abdominal), WR Brad Smith (questionable– abdominal), G Evan Mathis (out– knee)
Houston: CB Darryl Morris (questionable– ankle), LB Brian Cushing (questionable– knee), LB Jeff Tarpinian (questionable– knee)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
Houston is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win
Houston is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games
The OVER is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last 6 games following a loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-2 in Houston’s last 7 games following a win
The OVER is 5-2 in Houston’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. Philadelphia is one of the NFL’s best teams– they’re 5-2 and their only 2 losses this season have come against San Francisco and Arizona, two of the better teams in the NFC. Houston, meanwhile, has racked up their wins against teams like Oakland, Washington, and Tennessee– the dregs of the league, in other words. The Eagles have a better record despite a tougher schedule, and the Texans have covered just 3 times in their last 11 home games.
2. The Eagles have an explosive offense that ranks 5th in yards per game and 4th in points scored (29 ppg), and they’ll be facing a Houston defense that ranks 24th in yards allowed and a troublesome 29th against the pass. A big day from Nick Foles and the Philly offense is expected.
3. The Texans have a one-dimensional offense that is almost entirely reliant upon the running of Arian Foster due to the limitations of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Philadelphia is much-improved on defense this season, ranking in the top-half of the league in points allowed, and they certainly know what’s coming on Sunday, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Houston offense to produce enough points to keep up with the high-flying Eagles.
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans have been excellent at home this season, winning twice and narrowly losing to AFC heavyweight Indianapolis in Week 6. The Eagles, meanwhile, are a terrible road team, covering just once in their last 5 opportunities (and that cover, which came against Indianapolis in Week 2, was incredibly fortunate, as the Colts had a 2-score lead in the 4th quarter).
2. The Philadelphia offensive line has been a mess this season, which is why the Eagles haven’t been able to get their running game going and why Nick Foles has been target practice for opposing defenders. Well, the fact that guard Todd Herremans tore his bicep last week certainly doesn’t help things, especially when the Eagles are about to face the fearsome Houston front seven, which features the NFL’s best defensive player– J.J. Watt– and a now-healthy Jadeveon Clowney. Foles is in for a long, long day.
3. The strength of the Houston offense is their running game– they rank 5th in the league in rushing offense and running back Arian Foster has carried the ball at least 20 times for at least 100 yards in every game that’s he’s been healthy. Foster will be able to run all over a Philly defense that surrenders nearly 120 yards per game on the ground, which means the Texans will be able to control this game, moving the ball at will and keeping the Philadelphia offense on the sidelines.
Prediction
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