Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 3-2 ATS) @ St. Louis Rams (1-4, 1-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -7 (43)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: TE Luke Wilson (questionable– groin), DT Jordan Hill (out– ankle), CB Byron Maxwell (out– calf), C Max Unger (out– foot), TE Zach Miller (out– ankle), LB Bobby Wagner (out– toe)
St. Louis: LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (questionable– thigh), CB Trumaine Johnson (questionable– knee), CB Brandon McGee (questionable– foot), DE Ethan Westbrooks (questionable– hand), C Timothy Barnes (doubtful– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
St. Louis is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-0 in Seattle’s last 5 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in St. Louis’ last 5 games vs. NFC West opponents
The OVER is 17-7 in St. Louis’ last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. This is a total mismatch– the Seahawks are a championship-caliber team whose only two losses have come against teams with a combined record of 10-2, while the Rams are a losing team and a losing bet– 1-4 overall and 1-4 against the spread. This isn’t rocket science; don’t overthink it.
2. Seattle has a smash-mouth, run-first offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing, averaging 149.8 yards per game on the ground. Sunday they’ll be facing a Rams defense that ranks 26th against the run despite not yet facing a team that can run the ball like Seattle. This is an ideal matchup for the Seahawks offense.
3. The fearsome Seattle defense hasn’t quite lived up to last season’s standard, but they’re still one of the league’s better units, ranking 9th in yards allowed and 6th against the run. The St. Louis offense, which features inexperienced, untested quarterback Austin Davis and a no-name receiving corps, is producing just 20.2 points per game despite facing three teams (in 5 games) that rank 20th or worse in scoring defense. They have little chance of success on Sunday.
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The Rams are the best “bad” team in the league. If you don’t believe me, just look at their last 3 losses: they’ve lost to Dallas, Philadelphia, and San Francisco, three teams whose combined record is 14-4, and the games have all been competitive, as the average margin of defeat has been 7.2 points. They’re 1-4 but better than their record would indicate, making them a prime “buy low” candidate for the sharp bettor.
2. Jeff Fisher has always prioritized good secondaries and he has one in St. Louis, as the Rams have been a top-10 pass defense all season despite injuries to some key contributors. Only only team in the NFL (NY Jets) averages fewer pass yards per game than the Seahawks, so the Rams will be able to make them totally one-dimensional on offense. A 7-point home ‘dog against a one-dimensional offense that has been sputtering lately? Sign me up.
3. St. Louis always rises to the occasion against good teams at home; they’re 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with winning records. And the Seahawks are reeling after a home loss to Dallas and the messy Percy Harvin situation, which, regardless of “rightness” or reasoning, has cost the ‘Hawks a dynamic offensive weapon. This is a great spot for the undervalued Rams to sneak up on Seattle and give them a game.
Prediction
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