CELEBRITY NAP FOR SHAMROCK: Shamrock landed his nap with Local Celebrity (WON 11-8) at Clonmel yesterday. He is currently four in a row with his lays: Celtic Sultan (unplaced 12-1), Rileyev (unplaced 8-1), Montan (2nd 5-2 favourite) and Colombian (2nd 4-6 favourite).
Why isn’t he 20-1 on? He is only 9lb inferior to the rating Dubawi Gold took to Newmarket the day he chased Frankel into second place for the English Guineas. He is still the same 9lb behind that one’s AW figure.
But Glor Na Mara is not 20-1 on; he is odds against in both paper forecast and early trading on Betdaq this morning for a Polytrack race tonight.
He is the winningmost earner and highest-rated maiden in training, off 92 with 120,000 euros in the bank, but can you be confident enough to back him?
Glor Na Mara (6.30 Dundalk) himself was actually third to Frankel – now rated 135 – in the 2010 Dewhurst but he was beaten at Gowran Park last time out by a horse who has since performed to only around 75 in a handicap.
If he could repeat his Tipperary form on Polytrack, Hurricane Twister would beat him, since he split an 83-rated and a 94 when a close second last time out.
The total belittling of Glor Na Mara would come if Master Melody won, since he was only seventh to Dubawi Star at Dundalk as a juvenile.
There is so little confidence behind Glor Na Mara today that those expecting to get around evens or odds on the lay will also be mistaken: he’s 2.78, at the time of writing.
If I had to pick one against him, it would have to be It’s True, a Dermot Weld debutant with Pat Smullen hungry for every winner he can get if he is to land the championship.
But am I really offered only 3.15 the unraced horse against a 92 rated this morning? That’s also value suicide.
So it is that, with his helpful draw in stall four, I decided to back Glor Na Mara. I’ll stay home today with only the computer to ‘see’ me do it. I wouldn’t want anyone in the Ring to know. Advantage Betdaq.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Wave (6.00 Dundalk)
NEXT BEST: Glor Na Mara (6.30 Dundalk)
OUTSIDER: Shake The Bucket (8.50 Dundalk)
DAQ TRIO: Wave (6.00 Dundalk), Glor Na Mara (6.30 Dundalk) and Eastern Rules (7.55 Dundalk)
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