We are halfway through the NFL regular season already, so before we look ahead to the Kansas City Chiefs at the San Diego Chargers, let’s reflect on the first half of the season – without trying to choke on humble pie.
Pre-season Super Bowl Suggestions – update
New England – Suggested at 7.4, they are currently trading at the same price. Despite their easy 45-7 victory over the St Louis Rams on Sunday, their defensive problems remain. They still have to play Houston, San Francisco and Miami (twice, which could decode the AFC East division), and even if they don’t win the division, a wild card berth looks almost certain. They still appear to be a viable back-to-lay option.
San Diego – Things that make you go Hmmmm. Advised pre-season at 42.0, they are currently trading at 49.0, but have scored just six points in their last six quarters of football and have an unprepossessing 3-4 record, having lost three on the bounce. With Denver opening up a two-game lead on them, the next three (at home to Kansas City, and on the road in Tampa and Denver) are crucial, because they face NFC North foes, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh after that. It was a bit of an outside punt and they are still not out of the playoff picture. That could change in the next couple of weeks, however.
Atlanta – Suggested at 30.0, Atlanta are unbeaten at 7-0, should easily win the NFC South with the demise of New Orleans, and are currently trading as fourth favourites for the Super Bowl at 10.5 with BETDAQ. It appears that despite a couple of significant injuries and a lack of depth at the skill positions, the arrival of coordinator Mike Nolan has, as expected, helped that defence.
Green Bay – Suggested at 7.5, Green Bay have been very in and out in compiling a 5-3 record and are now trading at 11.5 The lack of running game is killing them, but the good news is the Packers are unbeaten in division play. Even if they fail to win the NFC North, they are on pace for a wild card spot and 11.5 would start to look a very generous price then.
Pre-season Divisions suggestions – update
AFC East – Back New England: Miami’s resurgence and a favourable schedule should worry Patriots’ backers. The Dolphins are still available at 7.6, so a saver is advised.
AFC South – Back Houston: Currently trading at 1.01 and with a 6-1 record, it is difficult to see Indianapolis catching them (though if you have money to burn, they are trading at 22.0)
AFC North – Lay Pittsburgh: The Steelers are 4-3, a game behind Baltimore, who have innumerable injury problems. It is still in the melting pot and probably will be in the final three weeks.
AFC West – Lay Denver: The Broncos top the division at 4-3 but are looking much stronger now than they did at the start of the season. The 3-4 San Diego Chargers could still catch them, but their three consecutive losses does not bode well.
NFC East – Lay New York Giants: Unless the 6-2 Giants collapse (late-season swoons are not unheard of by Big Blue), Philadelphia (3-4) and Dallas (3-4) do not look capable of catching the Super Bowl champions. May have got this one very wrong.
NFC South – Back Atlanta: Already four games clear of Tampa Bay and five clear of New Orleans, the unbeaten Falcons should wrap this up by Week 12.
NFC North – Back Green Bay: The 5-3 Packers are in a three-way fight, but have ground to make up on Chicago (6-1). The Bears can be backed at 2.05, while the Packers are trading at 2.15 with BETDAQ. With Minnesota’s back-loaded schedule, expect their 5-3 start to go by the wayside. You would not be rushing to take the 10.0 on offer.
NFC West – Back Seattle: This was a slight punt, given the restrictive odds for San Francisco, but they Seahawks, at 4-4 are now two games behind the Niners (6-2) and their 9.6 odds reflects their chances fairly.
Super Bowl dark horses
Overall, those who backed the Patriots, Packers, Falcons and Chargers should be feeling on good terms with themselves. But who else should we be looking at on the Super Bowl market with half the regular season still to play?
First, the obvious: Houston are still available at 6.6 and head the Super Bowl market. This is a little surprising, given they have lost just once, to the Green Bay Packers. You would have to think they would be in the mix. It’s time to back them.
Miami, at 66.0, are probably not going to win the Super Bowl, but they are being vastly underrated. Their offensive and defensive lines are bullying opponents and their odds could tumble should they handle the Patriots, whom they still have to play twice. A win over Indianapolis on Sunday puts them level at the top of the AFC East with New England.
In the NFC, the New York Giants look too skinny at 9.4, but Chicago, despite their offensive struggles, are still available at 17.0 and they will be shorter when they make the playoffs, perhaps as NFC North winners. They look another back-to-lay option.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Sky Sports HD, midnight, Thursday)
The Chiefs visit the Chargers, unfortunately.
The dogs have been barking on Thursday nights. Six underdogs out of eight have covered the handicap, four of them winning outright.
But the linemakers feel the San Diego Chargers will be one favourite that does cover the handicap when they entertain AFC West division rival Kansas City.
The Chargers are considered 9.5-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap, despite the fact that they have lost their last three contests and have managed just six points in the last six quarters of play.
That’s made us all go Hmmmmm…
Quite how a team that loses 7-6 to Cleveland and is then is expected to be 10 points better than an opponent four days later is as unfathomable as a woman. And if they don’t win here, they may just have joined the short list of teams in the 2012 season’s express checkout line.
The Chargers are 8-2 against the Chiefs in their last 10 and have won seven of their last eight against them at home.
As ridiculous as it sounds for one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, Chargers’ passer Philip Rivers ranks 19th in quarterback rating, 19th overall in passing yards per game and 22nd in yards per attempt.
A damned shame, too. Rivers is an exceptional leader, who has been let down by poor drafting and poor coaching.
The Chargers are better than they have shown, which is more than can be said of the Chiefs, who are mired in a bog of stagnant mediocrity. They have posted just one win in seven contests and while Matt Cassel’s return in place of a concussed Brady Quinn is an upgrade in the quarterback department, it’s still more Lidl than Harrods.
Cassel started pretty strongly, throwing for 258 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, following that up with a 301-yard, two-touchdown display against Buffalo. But his accuracy has been a problem and his interceptions and inconsistency ended up costing him the starting role after a dreadful display against Baltimore in Week 5.
But soft-as-a-kitten Quinn did not last long and Cassel could well put up some decent numbers against a Chargers’ team not known for their defensive capabilities.
The Chiefs, who have turned the ball over a league-leading 25 times, have already lost to the Chargers this season – Cassel was picked off four times in their Week 4 37-20 home loss, one of four games this season where their defence has conceded 35 points or more.
But what ills the Chiefs is not as much their lack of production on the field, as poor coaching off it. Quite why dynamic leading rusher Jamaal Charles was restricted to just eight touches of the ball against Oakland last Sunday was a mystery. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will surely utilise Charles more on Thursday.
But aside from Charles and Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs appear to offer little. So while you would not trust the Chargers to win by double digits, you can be certain that the Chiefs will find some way of messing things up so they can. This is one red-headed stepchild of a game that only a mother could love.
Suggestion:
Back – San Diego -9.5
Back – Houston Super Bowl
Back – Miami Super Bowl
Back – Chicago Super Bowl
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Twitter: @simonmilham
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