Baltimore Ravens (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -1.5 (47)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: DE Chris Canty (questionable– wrist), TE Owen Daniels (questionable– knee), G Marshall Yanda (questionable– knee), WR Michael Campanaro (out– thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (out– foot)
Pittsburgh: S Ross Ventrone (out– hamstring), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games
Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 14 points
The OVER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 home games
The OVER is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens are scoring more points and allowing fewer points than Pittsburgh, and when these teams met back in Week 2 it wasn’t even competitive, as Baltimore cruised to a 20-point win. What’s different this time around? Aside from the venue and the fact that the Steelers will be without top cornerback Ike Taylor, not much.
2. Baltimore has a fierce defense that ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed (16.4 ppg) and is obviously very familiar with the Pittsburgh offense, having just faced them a few weeks ago. The Ravens absolutely dominated the Steelers in that game, holding them to a season-low 6 points, and prior to last week’s loss at Cincinnati the Ravens had limited 6 consecutive opponents to 21 points or fewer.
3. It’s no surprise that Pittsburgh is overvalued after their big win over Indianapolis last week, but it’s something that should be noted nonetheless. In their prior four games (wks 4-7) they looked like a non-playoff team in splitting four games against the dregs of the league (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Houston). One good performance and now some people are thinking they’re going to beat a Baltimore team that has been playing at a high level all season… don’t bet on it.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers really have it going now, as they’ve won back-to-back games and have done so in style, producing 81 combined points. The Ravens, on the other hand, just lost to the shorthanded Bengals and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is at the peak of his powers, ranking 4th in the league in pass yards per game and leading an offense that ranks 3rd in total yards. This week he’ll have the opportunity to carve up a Baltimore secondary that ranks 22nd against the pass.
3. The Ravens have covered just once in their last 5 road games and once in their last 6 division games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 4-0 against the number in their last four games against teams with winning records and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with winning records. These Steelers rise to the occasion against quality opposition.
Prediction
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