New England Patriots (9-3. 7-5 ATS) @ San Diego Chargers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -3.5 (52)
Significant Injuries
New England: CB Kyle Arrington (questionable– ankle), G Dan Connolly (questionable– ankle), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– knee), WR Julian Edelman (questionable– thigh), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– ankle), LB Donta Hightower (questionable– shoulder), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– hip), WR Brandon LaFell (questionable– shoulder), RB Shane Vereen (questionable– ankle), LB Chris White (doubtful– ankle)
San Diego: LB Donald Butler (questionable– quadricep), OT D.J. Fluker (questionable– concussion), G Chris Watt (questionable– calf), DT Ryan Carrethers (out– elbow)
Recent Trends
New England is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
New England is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games
San Diego is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a win
San Diego is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games following a loss
The OVER is 58-28 in New England’s last 86 games overall
The UNDER is 7-1 in San Diego’s last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back New England
1. If you haven’t been impressed with the Patriots over the last two months, you haven’t been paying attention. The Pats had won 7 straight games before a 26-21 loss in Green Bay last week, and 6 of those 7 wins came by 15 points or more. They did lose to the Packers last week, but a) the Chargers, at best, are a “poor man’s” Packers, and b) New England actually should’ve won that game. Expect them to respond with a dominating performance in San Diego this week.
2. The Patriots rank 3rd in the league in points scored with an average of 31.5 per game, and the San Diego defense has been very shaky lately, surrendering 26.5 points per game over their last 7 contests. The Chargers simply won’t have an answer for the balanced New England attack.
3. After a lean few years the Pats once again have a defense that Bill Belichick can be proud of: they rank 13th in points allowed and have held 8 consecutive opponents to 26 points or fewer. The San Diego offense, meanwhile, was sputtering badly until meeting up with Baltimore’s 31st-ranked secondary last week. Expect the Chargers to revert to the form that they had displayed in previous weeks, when they averaged just 16.2 points per game in a 5-game span (Wks 7-12).
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers have exceeded expectations this season and they’ve been especially good at home, where a 3-point loss to Kansas City is the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record. New England hasn’t been a good bet on the road over the past couple of seasons, covering just 5 times in their last 17 opportunities, so smart money’s on the home ‘dog here.
2. The San Diego offense hung 34 points on an excellent Baltimore defense last week, exceeding 30 points for the 5th time this season. Their bread and butter is the passing game, as Philip Rivers is having another Pro Bowl-caliber season despite a receiving corps that’s mostly young and unproven. Rivers should be able to carve up a struggling New England secondary that ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed.
3. San Diego boasts one of the NFL’s most underrated defenses, a unit that ranks in the top-half of the league in every major statistical category despite never being mentioned among the elite. From a bettor’s perspective the “never being mentioned” part creates value, and the New England offense has been somewhat ordinary on the road this season, producing 21 points or fewer three times (including last week). Don’t be surprised if the Patriots have a little more trouble moving the ball than most expect them to.
Prediction
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