THE BETDAQ PUNTER is back – and as usual looks back on his betting diary last week on BETDAQ.
A mixed bag last week with a few winners (well, one and an each way second) numbing the pain of the losers and leaving us in prime position to fight another day!
This week his attention turns to bets on football and racing……….
… and the start of the Six Nations.
Friday
Football was my sport of choice today with African Nations in the afternoon and then the FA Cup in the evening – sit back and enjoy time, or that was the plan. I rarely get these things right as you probably noticed (but it is fun trying), so I rely on the odds makers to tell me the likeliest outcome and this afternoon was a mini jackpot! With odds against both teams in the Zambia v Nigeria match a small bet on the draw was in order and after a 1-1 scoreline I would like to personally thank all the BETDAQ layers who let me help myself to some 3.25 about the draw, though naturally I did not have much of bet – always seems to be the way when I get it right. I have zero qualifications in geography and have to confess to not being entirely sure where exactly Burkina Faso actually is (sorry), but they were the odds on favourites to beat Ethiopia at BETDAQ odds of 1.85 and duly won 4-0 – happy days indeed. Naturally, the evening did NOT go according to plan as I was so convinced that Aston Villa would win at Millwall that I let my bet ride even when Villa were 0-1 up, oh how I wish I had cashed in my chips and laid that bet off at a shorter price.
Saturday
Some “real” horse racing on grass for the first time in ages this afternoon, and some quality stuff from Cheltenham as well! I read around the net there were worries about horse fitness with gallops waterlogged or snowed under so I did reduce my bets to a more sensible level and would love to say I was part of the each way gamble on Imperial Commander – but I wasn’t. Backed from 6.5 to win to small amounts on BETDAQ early in the morning, to 4.7 at or near the off, he ran a blinder in second place, only getting caught close home and making me a small profit if nothing else, though whether this form is good enough to head back for the Gold Cup is a question for wiser minds than mine. Back to the football and with the FA Cup a conundrum (I did well just by avoiding some of those results!), I stuck to the African Nations once again. A sizeable bet on odds on Ivory Coast was never in any real danger, though odds of 1.67 were a bit skinny (come on BETDAQ layers, be more generous), and I soon lost all my profit and then some when Algeria let me down by losing to Togo – so much for the best odds of 2.1 on BETDAQ I managed to “steal”.
Sunday
Ever have one of those days where you just want to punch the wall – or yourself? I honestly considered bets on Leeds to beat Spurs, Oldham to beat Liverpool and Brentford to beat Chelsea but bottled it at the last minute and decided to have a day off from punting – how this game makes fools of us all sometimes. Two winners out of three at BETDAQ odds of 6.8 and 16.5 would have added a bit to the bank whatever the stakes but the bet has to be filed as the one that got away – maybe next year though?
Monday
With Plumpton abandoned, all we were left with was all-weather racing which fails to float my boat so time to look elsewhere for some other action. Someone once told me that tennis was a profitable avenue with a higher percentage of winning favourites than just about any other sport, so I thought I would have a go to small stakes to see what happened (Yes, I had a day off and was bored – can’t play golf in this weather!). I don’t claim to know anything about tennis but there were tournaments going on in Australia, France, Israel, Thailand, and Mexico, so I had to roll a mental dice to decide which one to work on. France won that battle and with seven matches I could easily work out my stakes, as this was little more than an experiment. Backing the favourite in each match (after all, I haven’t even got a clue who they are!) gave me winners at 1.30, 1.40, 1.35, 1.35, and 1.6 but two losers, so to level stakes I ended up breaking even – time to work out a staking plan as I can see that five winners out of seven is a decent enough win percentage.
Tuesday
Back to the football today and am I on to something I wonder? Being inherently lazy, letting other people do all the work really appeals to me so once again, it was down to the layers to tell me where to place my cash as I returned to the African football for my thrills – at least I understand the sport if nothing else. The afternoon game (hard to see on a tablet but those are the breaks) was between Burkina Faso and Zambia. Pre match odds were around the 2.9 mark for the “home” win, 2.6 for the “away” win, and 3.3 the draw (all on BETDAQ, naturally). That told me there was nothing between the two teams so I backed the draw and after a 0-0, I collected ready to reinvest on the next game. Ethiopia v Nigeria looked a shoe in for the Eagles even at odds of 1.25 and they duly obliged making me a pretty happy man – for a change.
Wednesday
More National Hunt racing in the afternoon and then football in the evening –pure heaven, win or lose. Racing bets on Buddy Bolero (2.0 on BETDAQ, whatever happened to the forecast 3.25?) and Heronshaw (6.8) both came in though I did lose a sizeable chunk on Little Dutch Girl (2.6) who all the papers seemed to think was the day’s good thing – but what do they know? Six Premier League football games were on in the evening so I picked my favourite four picks and backed them in small stake multiples. Arsenal to beat Liverpool (2.28), Everton to beat West Bromwich Albion (1.59), Tottenham to beat Norwich (1.85), and Chelsea to beat Reading (1.56) were my “sensible” BETDAQ picks, and we all now know how they panned out -not the best day at the office for yours truly!
Thursday
I know it’s difficult to bet on, but transfer deadline day took most of my attention – how sad is that, sneaking off to press the refresh button in the hope my beloved Everton have signed a superstar – even though we all know money is tight at Goodison. Another look at the football saw me go for a short priced double on Ajax (1.8 on BETDAQ) and Leicester (1.55), leaving me to pay attention to any breaking news. As I went to bed nothing of any interest had happened on the transfer front, but my double was landed so not a bad days business – for me at least.
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – Heronshaw at 6.8 for an unbeaten horse was a steal.
Disaster of the week – How can Spurs Chelsea and Arsenal all draw against “lesser” teams?
Something for the weekend:
With the Six Nations starting this weekend my first port of call was a look at the early prices for the Rugby Union internationals. To say the odds about England and France to win are prohibitive would be an understatement (1.1 and 1.15), so a look at the other games seems the only way forward. Ireland look a tad overpriced at 2.26 so a point on them could be a bet worth having, in what could be a closely matched game with Wales. As for the football, there have been so many strange results lately that we are really second guessing every game from now on in, though Harry Redknapp continues to try and weave his magic at Queens Park Rangers, who look the value call at odds of 2.2 to see off a Norwich side who are falling rapidly down the table. Chris Samba should help to tighten up their defence so if they can get a goal from somewhere, I can see a 1-0 win for the home team.
For my odds on treble this week (getting greedy!), I suggest Manchester United (1.66). Manchester City (1.9), and Port Vale (1.66), but that will do for the football for this week as I start my savings campaign for Cheltenham.
Lastly for this week, and as I continue my hunt for a personal fortune via BETDAQ I will have a little each way on Rock On Ruby if the Champion Hurdler shows up for the Sandown opener (or, if he heads to Doncaster Monday instead). He seems to have been largely forgotten by the racing press in the build up to this year’s renewal, but first season trainer Harry Fry is biding his time with his stable star and although I suspect he will improve again for this run on his way to the Festival, he will need to at least place to have any realistic chance of retaining his crown.
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Rugby Union
1pt Win Ireland to beat Wales Saturday
Weekend Football
1pt Win Queens Park Rangers (2.2) to beat Norwich
1pt Win Treble Manchester United (1.66), Manchester City (1.9), and Port Vale (1.66)
Horse racing:
1pt Win 1pt place Rock On Ruby 1.10pm Sandown (race time subject to change) or Doncaster Monday.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
