THE BETDAQ PUNTER returns with his usual mix of looking back on his betting week on BETDAQ and looking forward to this weekend.
He has bets this weekend in the football, rugby and racing.
It was a bad week at the office last weekend and he is still reeling from Oldham’s equaliser in the 95th minute against Everton.
How can he fare this weekend ?
Friday
I hate to settle into a routine but I have made a few pounds on BETDAQ recently by backing handicap favourites on the horses, and as I can see no point in reinventing the wheel that seemed like a good idea to me, so off I went with renewed enthusiasm as I plan to head to Singapore in May for the racing and need to raise the air fare on BETDAQ if at all possible (there’s a challenge)! Using the calculator on my phone to adjust stakes I had five consecutive losers before a 6/4 shot (but a better than that 2.66 on BETDAQ) rescued me, though to be fair, the concept is that as the favourite is nearly always odds against, as long as you can increase stakes you will make money when you finally get a winner. A bit nerve racking though, so I may have a day off tomorrow and look for other bets for a change! The football in England failed to inspire but I did have a “favourite” bet on the old French soccer as Lille beat Rennes 2-0 at home win odds of 1.85 – nothing too inspiring but I prefer a short priced winner to a long priced loser.
Saturday
I have said many a time that I never back my beloved Everton and then broke the habit of a lifetime here with a sizeable punt on Everton to win, my main personal bet, and my main bet in last week’s article too. With seconds to go they were leading 1-2 at Oldham and somehow, in a match with four minutes added time they conceded an equaliser in the 95th minute, it really couldn’t be any more heart (or wallet) breaking than that! I was shell shocked to be honest, annoyed at the need for a replay as a football fan, and fuming as a losing punter, and yes I could and even should have got out with a reduced profit but personal greed shone through and I stupidly let it ride only for disaster to strike. I did have a few smaller bets on the French football (the layers seem to have a good line on the French form for some unknown reason), and after placing six bets on Ligue One, the results went mostly in my favour with three short priced winners (BETDAQ prices 1.6, 1.88, 1.55), two losers, and a winning draw (3.1 on BETDAQ), meaning I got some but nowhere near all of my earlier losses back, and the feeling that I may be on to something, so watch this space for details as I unravel a system that may pay for an upgrade if I do get to Singapore (or anywhere)!
Sunday
As I got up in the morning England were winning the cricket, by the time I finished breakfast they had lost to New Zealand. I may be no cricket expert but I thought the England team were all singing all dancing, hence taking the short odds -0f 1.85 on BETDAQ – I do appreciate “gambling” is exactly that, but to be humiliated by a country hardly renowned as a major cricket power is just rubbing salt in to the wounds and more importantly ruining my Sunday. Having screwed up big time on Saturday I had a smaller bet on the ”obvious” Sunday FA Cup treble and lo and behold they came off and easily too (Chelsea 4-0 BETDAQ odds 1.17, Manchester City 4-0 BETDAQ odds 1.2, and Wigan 1-4 BETDAQ odds 2.66), for a win treble but why do they only win when I halve my stakes?
Monday
Back to my handicap theory on the horses and this Monday we were talking about the delights of Carlisle, Southwell and Wolverhampton – roll on Cheltenham is all I can add! Today was a good day though with my first bet on Overnight Fame (BETDAQ odds 3.0) made my “stop at a winner” concept particularly short lived for the day – one bet one winner and job done for once. With time on my hands in the evening I noticed a lot of reports starting to come in about a stable report from the Nicky Henderson yard regarding his Cheltenham prospects. Notes on my tablet is a useful tool so I set to work writing down those horses that look to be the strongest fancied – but with other trainers being interviewed in the week ahead I am keeping my powder dry and building up a short list of sensible bets which I will unleash on you next week – even if you use it to know which ones are best swerved this season.
Tuesday
The plan today was some bets on the football but Arsenal seem to be in free fall decline at the moment (I don’t know why but they just cant string two good performances together in a row), and I had no opinion on the Porto v Malaga game so kept my money in my pocket just for once. Work (sadly) meant I had to forgo my favourites in handicaps system as I couldn’t sit in front of anything on line to see the prices but never mind, I live to fight another day. More trainer interviews started to appear (David Pipe if anyone is interested) and my portfolio of fascinating facts is beginning to build for a fabulously profitable Cheltenham – though I think that every year and yet I am still sat in the same house, same job, and so on!
Wednesday
Bragging rights are clearly mine after today, though how long they will last is another question entirely. Inter Milan v Barcelona was apparently a foregone conclusion and Lionel Messi was bound to score – so I laid them both on BETDAQ at what I felt to be silly prices. Admittedly I wasn’t brave enough to back Milan (I so wish I had now of course – 6.8 for the home team was an amazing price), but I did lay Barcelona at 1.66 with the draw on my side that way, and I also laid Messi to score at an even sillier 1.45 – has the world gone totally mad or am I just out of step yet again?
Thursday
The Europa league has never really appealed to me as a betting proposition with too many teams resting players if they consider their domestic league position more important than the secondary European competition so no bets for me here. I had been told by my greyhound service (the one I have a free trial with) that Trap One Pams Tomjo was a good thing in the 8.18 at Hove so I snapped up some of the 3.0 freely available on BETDAQ (and to surprisingly large amounts), and I also had a punt on Trap 2 Westmead Shaw in the 8.26 at Henlow, though sadly he was only a 1.73 shot on BETDAQ when I placed my bet – but at least I could get a price and a bet on, unlike other places I could mention who limit a bet to £24 even at Starting Price – where exactly is the sense in that? As I now know I ended the evening with a second (well beaten) and an odds on winner, so little damage done – but then no profit either.
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – Laying Messi to score in the Inter v Barca game – at heavily odds on it was an easy choice and I could afford a decent stake, which I now get to keep!
Disaster of the week – Oldham scoring in the last seconds to deny me my biggest bet of the month on Everton – some call it romance in the FA Cup but I call it disastrous.
Something for the weekend:
Rugby seem a good place to start (before I jinx the football) but is there any value to be had I wonder? The answer seems to be a resoundingly loud NO which means I am rather stuck with the favourites in a treble. On Saturday Wales are priced at 1.29 on BETDAQ to beat Italy, and England are 1.34 to beat France, while Sunday should see Ireland beat Scotland with the minimum of fuss at BETDAQ odds of 1.74 for a 3.0 treble to a point.
The football has me looking to do something different this week so I have searched out a stats guru on the Internet – so we can all blame him if it all goes horribly wrong. My first bet will be on the Fulham v Stoke match where odds of 1.8 are available on BETDAQ in the both teams to score market. Stoke have gone 8 games without a clean sheet (apparently) but ought to score themselves so that is the explanation to bet number one. Manchester United may be away at Queens Park Rangers but have own all their games against the bottom 6 and even at short odds of 1.56 I have to add another little bet.
Lastly for this week (did you notice how I have been a bit more careful with my best this week?), I can never go without a little bet on the horses – though I often wish I could. Lingfield may only race on the all-weather, but at least I know who ought to be running that way, and this weekend one horse will do for me (so fingers and toes crossed). Marco Botti has been in among the winners all winter so we know he has kept his Newmarket string ticking over nicely and he sends Planteur for the Winter Derby trail at 3.05pm over a mile and a quarter. Trained in France by Eddie Lallouche until at March, he won two Group Two’s and a Group One at Longchamp and has only compete at the very highest levels since – until now that is. This is “only” a Listed race, which represents a big drop in class, and one he ought to be able to make the most of. His recent rivals have included Frankel, So You Think, and Golden Lilac and if there is anything anywhere near to that class here I will be amazed – though he does have to prove he still wants to win races in my book.
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Rugby Union Saturday/Sunday
1pt Win treble – Wales (1.29) England (1.34) and Ireland (1.74) – a 3.0 treble.
Weekend Football
1pt Fulham v Stoke – both teams to score at odds of 1.8
1pt Manchester United to beat Queens Park Rangers at odds of 1.56
1pt Reading v Wigan – both teams to score at odds of 1.65
1pt Manchester City v Chelsea Sunday – both teams to score at odds of 1.64
Horse racing
2pts Win Planteur 3.05pm Lingfield Saturday
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