MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Monday’s game between LEICESTER v LIVERPOOL with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEICESTER V LIVERPOOL
8pm We have Monday Night Football from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have a cracker! Leicester host Liverpool in a must win game for both sides really after how the fixtures went last weekend and on Saturday. With wins for Nottingham Forest and Everton on Bank Holiday Monday, that put Leicester in a terrible position after losing to Fulham. They sat in the bottom three at the start of the weekend, two points behind Everton and three behind Forest. That situation became worse with a draw for Nottingham Forest away to Chelsea on Saturday.
West Ham beat Manchester United last weekend too, moving away from the relegation battle and that was a further blow for Leicester. That result had a big impact on Liverpool’s Top Four chances as well because it has opened the door. United started the weekend only one point ahead of Liverpool but they beat Wolves on Saturday and they do have a game in hand as well. I don’t see Liverpool actually going past United into fourth, but it has definitely spiced up the race – United looked to have it in the bag to be honest, perhaps Newcastle can be a little nervy too after the draw with Leeds on Saturday.
What we’re left with is a must win game for both sides, which will make for excellent viewing. Not only do both sides have to win and finish the season strongly, they are relying on other sides to drop points as well. That’s never an ideal situation, but if we’re being honest neither side have been good enough this season. Liverpool have conceded way too many sloppy goals to finish in the Top Four – they only have a chance because they have been so good up front. Their average xG conceded is a very high 1.6 – it was up towards 2.0 but they have finished the season strongly to their credit.
Leicester have also had huge issues at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.7 and they have been creating less chances going forward. A major problem for Leicester has been their home form – only 16 points from 17 home games. They only have two points less away from home! Southampton have been poor at home too and they are confirmed as relegated now – Nottingham Forest are probably a good example that you really rely on home form when you’re in the relegation battle. When that falls apart you struggle.
Liverpool come into the game trading as the odds on favourites. They are 1.62 at the time of writing with Leicester 5.4 and the draw is 4.8. As I said above, Liverpool have been finishing the season very strongly, but they have conceded a lot of goals away from home this season. I know Leicester’s home form just isn’t strong this season, but the 1.62 feels too short on Liverpool here. Leicester have an excellent squad, and they have really stepped up their football in recent weeks.
Leicester are putting in their best performances under pressure. I know results haven’t gone their way, they definitely concede too many sloppy goals, but you can see they are creating more than ever. Their recent xG figures have been 1.98 v Manchester City, 2.94 v Wolves, 2.34 v Leeds, 3.06 v Everton and 3.27 v Fulham. Their average is only 1.4 this season, so they have been creating over double what they usually do – that’s in big games too now that every game is a must win. I feel they can make this closer than the odds suggest, and the 1.62 on Liverpool is a good value lay in my opinion. I’m happy to keep stakes to two points, because it’s hard to trust Leicester but the signs are there that they are playing good football and can get a result.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Leicester at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester have won their last two Premier League home games against Liverpool, last winning more consecutively against the Reds in the top-flight between 1929 and 1931 (4).
● Liverpool have won eight of their last 11 Premier League games against Leicester (D1 L2), more than they had in their previous 19 against the Foxes (W7 D5 L7).
● Leicester have only kept one clean sheet across their last 13 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (1-0 in December 2021), with the Foxes conceding an average of 2.1 goals-per-game in this period (27 goals in total).
● Liverpool will be looking to do a Premier League double over Leicester for the first time since 2019-20, when the Reds last won the title. Indeed, they have done the double over the Foxes on two occasions under Jürgen Klopp in the Premier League (2017-18 and 2019-20), which is as many times as they had done it in the competition prior to the German’s arrival (1994-95 and 2001-02).
● Each of Liverpool’s last five Premier League games have seen them win by exactly one goal; in English top- flight history, there have been just five occasions of a side winning six straight matches by a one-goal margin: Aston Villa in November 1910, Chelsea in February 1966, Southampton in April 1992, Newcastle in October 1996, and Everton in November 2002.
● Leicester City manager Dean Smith has lost four of his five Premier League meetings with Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp (W1), however the one win he did manage came by a 7-2 scoreline while in charge of Aston Villa in October 2020 – this remains Jürgen Klopp’s joint-heaviest defeat in the competition, along with a 5- 0 loss to Manchester City in September 2017.
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored eight goals against Liverpool in the Premier League, with only Andrew Cole (11) and Harry Kane (9) netting more against them in the competition. Vardy has netted six goals in seven league appearances against the Reds at the King Power Stadium.
● Liverpool forward Diogo Jota has scored seven goals in his last seven games against Leicester in all competitions. However, all of these have been in home games, with the Portuguese failing to score in any of his four appearances at the King Power Stadium with Porto, Wolves and Liverpool.
● James Maddison has assisted four of Harvey Barnes’ open play goals for Leicester in the Premier League this season. Coming into MD36, the only players who have assisted more open play goals for a teammate in the competition this term are Kevin De Bruyne (7 for Erling Haaland), Bruno Fernandes (6 for Marcus Rashford), and Bukayo Saka (5 for Gabriel Martinelli).
● Mohamed Salah has scored 19 Premier League goals this season; having reached 20+ league goals in four of his first five seasons with Liverpool, including both of his last two, the Egyptian could become the first player to net 20+ league goals in three consecutive seasons for the Reds since Roger Hunt (5 in a row from 1961-62 to 1965-66).