SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action starting with CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL at 12.30pm – all with recommended BETDAQ bet.
CRYSTAL PALACE V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! After a full midweek fixture list, we’re back in action again quickly on Saturday. We kick off the day with Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp won’t be happy his side are playing again in the 12.30pm fixture; it seems to be a massive bugbear of his – he was very snappy with the TV interview after their win over Sheffield United on Wednesday night! Crystal Palace also played Wednesday, so there’s no advantage for either side here – Palace lost to Bournemouth with home advantage which was a pretty poor result. They went into that game as decent favourites, even if they weren’t odds on. Liverpool had a routine win against Sheffield United who have been the worst side in the Premier League this season – they have changed their manager now but I don’t see that changing anything. Liverpool will be fully expected to win this game too, and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. I was actually surprised to see them trading as big as 1.58 when I clicked into the market, with Crystal Palace 6.2 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing.
I know Liverpool have had issues with this kick off time, but the 1.58 is massive in my opinion. I thought they would be closer to 1.4 – if not at least trading in the 1.4’s. The gulf in class between the sides is massive, and I feel it’s a case of just deciding what level of stake I want on the Liverpool price rather than will I back them. After the midweek fixtures, Liverpool are in a superb position in the title race after Manchester City lost to Aston Villa. They are still two points behind Arsenal, but they will fancy catching them. They could actually be top after this weekend as Arsenal have to play Aston Villa away later. Liverpool now have an average xG created of 2.0 which is the best figure in the Premier League, jumping over Manchester City. They are still conceding more chances than City and Arsenal, but that won’t be an issue against a limited Crystal Palace side. Palace have an average xG of only 1.15, and Liverpool will outscore them here. I feel the 1.58 is worth a Max Bet to start the weekend!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Crystal Palace at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryLvr
BRIGHTON V BURNLEY
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm in a busy afternoon! We have four interesting markets too – we have four odds on favourites but you would be able to pick holes in all of them if you wanted to. We start with Brighton hosting Burnley – after getting a confidence boosting 5-0 win over Sheffield United, Burnley came crashing back down to earth midweek when they lost 1-0 away to Wolves. They have another tough away fixture here against an impressive Brighton side. Brighton went through a six game run without a win in the Premier League but since then they have steadied the ship with wins over Nottingham Forest and Brentford. Their games have been all action, Brighton have been playing a very open game and lately they have been conceding plenty of goals. They actually haven’t managed to keep a clean sheet all season – Both Teams To Score has collected in all of their games so far and that’s trading 1.79 here. That’s relying on Burnley finding the net at some stage, which is obviously a worry here. Their average xG created is only 1.12 which is the fifth worst attacking record in the Premier League at the moment.
Brighton come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites – they are trading 1.53 at the time of writing with Burnley 6.8 and the draw is 4.9. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.53 on Brighton considering how open they have been this season, but then you have to consider are Burnley good enough to take advantage. Away from home, Burnley’s average xG figure created drops to under 1.0. You have to respect the fact that Brighton have conceded in every game, but I feel Over 2.5 goals is a better option here at 1.65 compared to Both teams To Score 14 ticks bigger. Brighton have been creating a lot this season – their average xG created is as high as 1.73 and they are going to play their usual open game here too. I wouldn’t be surprised if they managed to score three or four on their own, so Overs is a much better position than BTTS in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriBrn
MANCHESTER UNITED V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm The Manchester United soap opera continues as they host Bournemouth! This is a game on paper that they really should be winning, but it’s just hard to have confidence in United in any form at the moment. However, their performance on Wednesday night against Chelsea was much better – a lot more effort and running compared to the embarrassing performance against Newcastle. Of course, we’ve had plenty of leaks to the press this week about Erik ten Hag losing half the dressing room and the players unhappy with the system and hard work in training. After that, it was absolutely fascinating to see Rashford dropped; one wonders what ten Hag is thinking, and you also have to say that the United players really stepped up their game. Naturally you have to factor in the fact that Chelsea have been so disappointing this season too. It will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from United here; we know that the players find is easier to “get up” for bigger games; this is a routine Saturday 3pm kick off against weak opposition on paper – what kind of United turn up?
Unfortunately, that is a question we keep having to ask and that does make betting difficult. You just don’t know what type of performance you’ll get from United these days. The home win is trading 1.58 at the time of writing with Bournemouth 6.0 and the draw is 4.8. The 1.58 on United is the same price as Liverpool, and I much prefer the Liverpool bet today. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here; Bournemouth have been getting some great results lately but if the same United turn up as Wednesday then I don’t fancy laying the 1.58. Bournemouth have been playing a very open game this season, and United have been open too. United are averaging an xG conceded of 1.55 this season which is marginally over their average created at 1.53. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.6 – United have been only able to clean sheet recently against the likes of Luton and Fulham. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bournemouth score, and indeed Both Teams To Score is trading 1.7 which is an option but I marginally prefer Over 2.5 goals at 1.6.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBne
SHEFFIELD UNITED V BRENTFORD
3pm Next we have Sheffield United host Brentford. Sheffield United rang the changes this week; they sacked their manager and brought back Chris Wilder. Obviously they had a very difficult start having to play Liverpool midweek, but it’s hard to see any decision changing things for Sheffield United to be honest. Looking at their stats, they are the worst team in Europe – I just can’t see them not getting relegated this season. They are massively odds on to go back down to the Championship – where do you even start if you’re a new manager. Sheffield United have the worst average xG created, and also the worst average xG conceded – usually a side has a big issue in attack or defence; where do you start to turn things around? Brentford will be viewing this as a very winnable game, despite the change in management from Sheffield United. I’m sure the away win will be a popular bet at 1.82, while Sheffield United are 4.9 and the draw is 4.0. Brentford have been playing a very open game this season; their average xG created is 1.45 while their average conceded is marginally over that at 1.49.
That would make you interested in Over 2.5 goals, but then you have to worry about Sheffield United contributing to that bet. It’s trading 1.93 which is 11 ticks bigger than the Brentford win, and to be honest not that appealing compared to the Brentford win in my opinion. Sheffield United have only managed an average xG of 0.77 this season – that is exceptionally low. It’s actually the lowest xG created from all of Europe’s major leagues this season – La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 – every single side is creating more compared to Sheffield United! They just don’t look up to Premier League standard, and although Brentford haven’t had an many wins as they’d like this season, it’s hard to see past them here. I’ not going to go crazy with the stakes but the 1.82 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brentford to beat Sheffield United at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheBre
WOLVES V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Nottingham Forest. Wolves come into this game as the odds favourites – they are trading 1.93 at the time of writing with Nottingham Forest 4.6 and the draw is 3.7. They grinded out a nice win over Burnley midweek, and usually Wolves have to work hard for their wins. Their average xG created is only 1.11 this season so it’s not like they are scoring loads of goals! Every single one of their wins in the Premier League this season have been by one goal – but that does include a 2-1 win over Manchester City no less! Wolves actually haven’t managed to score more than two goals in a Premier League game this season so while Nottingham Forest are pretty average away from home, don’t expect plenty of goals from Wolves! Forest got hammered 5-0 away from home on Wednesday by Fulham, and they might be slipping into a relegation battle soon if they aren’t careful. Everton are behind them at the moment, but you’d expect that to change based on Everton’s performance levels. That basically leaves Sheffield United, Luton Town and Burnley below Nottingham Forest – if Burnley could start playing better I’d worry about Nottingham Forest!
The three sides that came up from the Championship last season are odds on to go back down, but next in line is Forest. Their stats are worrying too; their average xG created is only 0.94 which is the third worst attacking figure in the Premier League. One of only three sides with an average xG under 1.0. Who has the fourth worst figure? Wolves! That does make this game interesting, and you can see why plenty of punters would like to lay Wolves at odds on. I feel we have two very average sides here; they have pretty similar attacking and defensive figures. Wolves are conceding an average xG of 1.58 and Forest are only marginally under that at 1.53. Obviously you’d worry about the Forest away form, and their figures don’t give you confidence to lay Wolves. I feel the best option here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.89. We have two very limited sides going forward here, and I’d be surprised if we saw a lot of quality in front of goal.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolNtt
ASTON VILLA V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Aston Villa hosting Arsenal, and this should be a cracker. This game got a whole lot bigger after the result on Wednesday night with Aston Villa beating Manchester City here! That left Arsenal with a six point lead over Manchester City, and actually moved Aston Villa over City into third. It was 14 wins in a row for Villa at home, and you don’t need me to tell you this is going to be a very difficult game for Arsenal. Unai Emery has this Villa side playing some exceptional football and full of confidence too; it’s hard to believe they weren’t too far away from a relegation battle under Steven Gerrard. Arsenal recorded yet another dramatic win midweek away to Luton – they made exceptionally hard work of beating one of the worst sides in the league and needed a 97th minute winner from Declan Rice to win 4-3. That being said, how many times has this Arsenal side found a winner in stoppage time under Arteta – it has been incredible. It’s those goals that make such a difference, and they will be involved in the title race again this season now; it’ll be interesting to see can they handle the run in pressure this time!
For the first time this season, City are now odds against to win the title. They are still big favourites, but Arsenal are going to push them all the way again. You can’t fault this Arsenal side; they have the best record at the back this season with an average xG conceded of just 0.90. They have an average xG created of 1.78 which is the third highest figure this season too – Villa are creating some nice chances themselves, but their figure is 1.63 and they just aren’t as good as Arsenal. That being said, you wouldn’t be rushing to back Arsenal here at 2.18 given the home record of Villa. A home win is trading 3.6 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. I don’t have a strong opinion on the match odds market, but I would lean towards a draw at 3.75. However, we landed a bet on Under 2.5 goals midweek between Villa and City at nice odds, and I like Under 2.5 goals again here at 2.22. Villa have been rock solid at the back at home, while Arsenal are just generally solid at the back too; I can see a very close and cagey affair without many chances. You wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-0 win either way, and a very similar game to the City one midweek.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlArs