PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MANCHESTER CITY, LIVERPOOL v SOUTHAMPTON, BRENTFORD v ASTON VILLA and WOLVES v EVERTON all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm Another excellent Premier League weekend arrives on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have had some thrilling Champions League fixtures this week; for the first time in a while Manchester City weren’t involved at the Last 16 stage. Now they have a big game in the race for the Top Four spots – not many football fans would have said that about Nottingham Forest hosting Manchester City at the start of the season! These two come into this weekend sitting in third and fourth – with Chelsea at home to Leicester this weekend and only two points behind Nottingham Forest and one behind Manchester City, whoever loses here is going to move out of the Top Four. Nottingham Forest have obviously done remarkably well to get to this stage of the season sitting in the Top Four – they deserve massive credit for that, but they have been massively over-performing. It would be a big surprise if they were able to hold onto their position, but a win here would surely be a massive boost to morale and would actually make everyone believe that they might actually pull it off. City have been a lot easier to play against this season too, so we have an interesting game ahead.
City come into game the as the marginal favourites at 1.97 with Nottingham Forest 4.0 and the draw is also 4.0 at the time of writing. As I said above, Forest have been really over-performing this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.61 which is the sixth worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season – they’ve been massively getting away with that so far; sides just haven’t been taking their chances against them, and of course Forest do deserve credit for grinding out as many results as they have. They managed to keep a clean sheet against Arsenal here; but again Arsenal would say they deserved to win the game with an xG of 1.6. They have been conceding a lot of goals recently, and perhaps that is the first sign that cracks are starting to show. I know backing City this season has come with a wealth warning compared to previous seasons, but I do feel the 1.97 is worth backing here – nothing too crazy with the stakes, but I do feel the away win is good value here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NfoMci
LIVERPOOL V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We have three fixtures kicking off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon, and while we have the shortest price of the weekend here I’m happy to focus on Liverpool hosting Southampton. Given we have first v last here, it’s no surprise to see Liverpool come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Liverpool are trading 1.14 with Southampton 23.0 and the draw is 12.0 at the time of writing. It would be a massive shock if we saw anything bar a comfortable win for Arne Slot’s men here, and Liverpool should be finishing the day with a whopping 16 point lead at the top of the table. They’ll have played two more games compared to Arsenal, but the title race is over after the last few weeks. This one is going to be about how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win – the focus is going to have to be on the side markets here with Liverpool trading so short in the match odds market. Obviously you’re always reading between the lines when you say something like this, but I do feel Southampton have effectively given up in recent weeks.
They have been conceding goals for fun – in my opinion the heads have gone down, they are going through the motions to get to the end of the season with morale at an all time low. Obviously they did record that surprise 2-1 win over Ipswich at the start of February, but they are heading back down to the Championship too. In 2025, Southampton have been lost seven of their eight Premier League games and the wheels have come off at the back – they’ve conceded 26 goals. They face one of the best attacking sides in Europe here; one wonders how many goals they can concede? The last three weeks they’ve shipped three goals to Bournemouth, four to Brighton and four to Chelsea. Liverpool can win comfortably here, it’s just a case of how to play it. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more goals and win) is trading 2.22 in the Correct Score market, and Liverpool are trading 1.93 to cover the 2.5 goal handicap. I actually couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest – I can’t see past a comfortable win for Liverpool here, and I’m happy to take the 1.93 on them to cover the handicap.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool -2.5 goals to beat Southampton at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivSth
BRENTFORD V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm Next we have a very interesting market as Brentford host Aston Villa. I have to say I was slightly surprised to see Brentford as clear favourites here – I expected a much more open betting heat. Brentford are trading 2.36 with Aston Villa 3.1 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Aston Villa had an immense week when putting one foot in the Champions League Quarter-Finals with a 3-1 win over Club Brugge away from home. Obviously they would have been expected to come through that tie, but Club Brugge have been very solid with home advantage in the Champions League this season. These two sides come into this matchday sitting beside each other in the table; obviously it’s very disappointing from a Villa point of view to be down in tenth after finishing in the Top Four last season. They have really struggled to create good quality chances this season – their average xG created is only 1.39 which is the seventh worst attacking figure in the Premier League this season. Brentford aren’t too far away from that with an average xG created of 1.45. Brentford have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season though.
That’s why they are sitting in mid-table, because they are woeful at the back. They have an average xG conceded of 1.84 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. Only Southampton, who have been well short of Premier League quality this season, have conceded more chances! Brentford have been getting away with things slightly because sides haven’t been fully taking their chances against them. I wouldn’t have an exceptional amount of confidence in this Villa side when you look at their under-lining numbers this season, but I do feel the market is wrong here. As I said above, I really didn’t see Brentford being so short here. Their defensive figure is a major red flag, and the sides have been very similar creating chances. I just feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds of 2.36 suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Brentford lay. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Villa win here, but I’m happy to keep the draw on our side too.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Brentford to beat Aston Villa at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrtAvl
WOLVES V EVERTON
8pm We have a later than usual fixture slot in the Premier League this week as Wolves host Everton at 8pm. It wasn’t so long ago that this could have been a massive relegation battle but both sides have moved away from the bottom three in recent weeks, especially Everton who are flying under David Moyes. Wolves have been pretty poor this season, and they are somewhat lucky that there are three sides worse than them. The last two seasons have highlighted the massive gulf in class between the Premier League and the Championship. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here – indeed, this is the most open market of the weekend. Wolves are the favourites at 2.7 with Everton 3.05 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. The three sides in the relegation zone have the three worst attacking figures in the Premier League this season, and then comes these two sides. However, you have to consider that Everton have been playing much better since Moyes came back, and they have some excellent momentum too. I wouldn’t read too much into their figures over the season given the change in manager and how the squad reacted.
Everton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League fixtures, and they’ve managed to win four of those. I have to say I feel we have the wrong favourites here, even with Wolves having home advantage. Wolves have managed to record two massive wins from their last four games to move away from the relegation zone, but they’ve lost six of their last eight games. They are conceding more chances than Everton this season, and they’ve been exceptionally sloppy at the back too – they’ve actually conceded over two goals per game on average this season. For me, the only decision here is whether to lay Wolves or go for it with the Everton win at 3.05. Personally, I couldn’t put anyone off either position – it’s definitely a good option to have the draw on your side, but I’m going with the Everton win. They have had some great momentum under Moyes, and Wolves are there for the taking. The 3.05 is too big to ignore in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Wolves at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlvEve
