SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V CHELSEA
3pm What a Saturday we have in store on BETDAQ Betting Exchange in the Premier League this week! We have plenty of talking points, and games that will have an impact at the bottom and top of the table. The King’s Coronation on Saturday sees the opening action pushed back to 3pm with four matches. We kick things off with Bournemouth hosting Chelsea. After getting hammered by Arsenal midweek, everyone has been piling on Chelsea this week. It’s true that they have been all over the place, the management decisions have been poor and they are a laughing stock at the moment. You have to wonder would they be in the position they are now had they stuck it out with Thomas Tuchel – that’s not even getting into the whole Frank Lampard appointment! At least they were playing good football under Graham Potter without getting results, under Lampard they have been terrible and he has lost his six games in charge in all competitions now. We have two sides heading in different directions here as Bournemouth have won four of their last five games! What a time to throw in that good run of form, finally breaking free from the relegation battle where they were odds on to go down for a large part of the season.
After their recent runs, both sides will kick off on the same amount of points, and although Bournemouth have played one game more you wouldn’t rule out Bournemouth finishing ahead of Chelsea given the situation! I have to say I was surprised to see Chelsea trading as short as 2.16 when I clicked into the market – I expect them to be bigger given their current run and Bournemouth finding their goal scoring touch. Chelsea have been conceding goals and chances for fun, while Bournemouth have been playing their best football of the season. I’m keen to keep the stakes small because there is an obvious gulf in class between the sides on paper, but you have to respect the fact Chelsea aren’t the club they once were this season. It’s just hard to have any faith in them at the moment, and the 2.16 looks very short to me. Bournemouth wouldn’t be a side that you’d want to rely on with big stakes, but they are playing great football at the moment – they can get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Bournemouth at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have won four of their 11 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D1 L6), though three of those victories have come away from home.
● Chelsea have lost three of their last six Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (W2 D1). They did win the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge 2-0 this season, only previously completing the Premier League double over Bournemouth in 2016-17.
● Chelsea have lost at Fulham and drawn at Nottingham Forest this season – they’ve not failed to win any of their three away Premier League games against promoted sides since 2012-13, when they drew at Reading and lost to West Ham and Southampton.
● Chelsea have lost four Premier League games in the 3pm Saturday kick-off slot this season, as many as they had across the previous four campaigns combined (1 in 2018-19, 2 in 2019-20, 0 in 2020-21 and 1 last season). They last lost more in a single season back in 2002-03 (5).
● Bournemouth have won six of their last nine Premier League games (L3), more than they had in their first 25 this term (W5 D6 L14). The Cherries are looking to win three consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since a run of four between May and August 2018.
● Chelsea have lost each of their last six games in all competitions – their club record of consecutive defeats is seven, which they’ve had twice between December-January 1960-1961, and November- December 1952.
● Bournemouth have scored nine goals in their last five Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 14 combined. They beat Leeds 4-1 last time out, the first time they’ve scored four in a league game this season.
● Frank Lampard has lost his last 10 matches in all competitions across spells with Everton and Chelsea. The last English manager to lose more consecutive games while in charge of top-flight clubs was Herbert Bamlett, who lost 14 in a row between April-October 1930 with Manchester United.
● Chelsea boss Frank Lampard has won none of his three Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D1 L2), losing 3-0 with Everton earlier this season. He’s only faced Liverpool more often without ever winning in the competition (5).
● Bournemouth forward Dominic Solanke has been involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League games (3 goals, 3 assists), just one fewer than in his first 22 appearances this season (3 goals, 4 assists).
MANCHESTER CITY V LEEDS
3pm We have two sides who have been in the headlines all week next! Manchester City went back to the top of the table with a routine 3-0 win over West Ham on Wednesday night, while Leeds appointed Sam Allardyce in a last ditch attempt to stay up. What he can achieve with four games left in the season is very debatable – especially considering Leeds have a very difficult fixture list. They meet City here, then Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs. That’s the toughest run-in of any side around them, and although they start the weekend sitting just outside the relegation zone only on goal difference, they are in a very poor position. The only positive is they face Spurs on the final day and we know they have been all over the place this season – Spurs will likely have nothing to play for too. Big Sam came in and gave a press conference saying he had more football knowledge than Guardiola, Klopp and Arteta this week – what a way to start! Obviously that took all the headlines, but it might be a clever tactic – I don’t think he really believes what he said, and it takes the spotlight off the players and puts it onto him. Decent management in my opinion, if you can look past the crazy statement!
There isn’t a tougher fixture than away to Manchester City though, especially with City in the title race too. Perhaps the only positive from a Leeds point of view is that City have a Champions League Semi-Final midweek so they might have one eye on that fixture – you might get a few changes or early subs from Guardiola. Leeds will need all the help they can get because they have only managed nine points from their 17 away games this season; the second worst away record in the Premier League. As you would expect given the gulf in class between the sides, City are trading the shortest price of the weekend at 1.18. That’s one of the shortest prices around Europe’s major leagues this weekend too. Anything bar a City win would be a massive shock here, and I feel it’s about how many goals can City score. Leeds have been terrible at the back all season, but they have lost 5-1, 6-1 and 4-1 recently too. City might not have to even be at their best here to score four or more goals, and Any Other Home Win is worth a small bet at 2.72 in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Man City have won their last three Premier League games against Leeds by an aggregate score of 14-1 – as many times as they’d beaten them in their previous 15 meetings in the competition (D5 L7).
● Leeds lost this exact fixture 7-0 last season, last losing consecutive away league games to Manchester City in April/November 1992.
● Manchester City have lost just two of their last 60 Premier League games in the Saturday 3pm kick-off slot (W50 D8), with both of those losses coming at home to Crystal Palace (December 2018 and October 2021).
● Leeds set a new Premier League record for goals conceded in a month during April, shipping 23 goals in seven games. It was the most by a top-flight side in one month since Birmingham City in April 1965 (also 23).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won more games (5) and have a higher win rate (56%) in May than they do in any other month. However, they won just one of their four May games last season (D1 L2), beating Brentford on the final day to avoid relegation.
● Leeds lost four Premier League matches by three or more goals in April, having only done so once between August and March this season, losing 5-2 to Brentford in September. They were only the second side to suffer that many defeats by 3+ goals in a month in Premier League history, along with Swansea City in December 2016.
● New Leeds boss Sam Allardyce will be the first manager to take charge of nine different clubs in the Premier League. He’s won his first game in charge at five of his previous eight clubs in the competition (D1 L2), though did lose most recently with West Bromwich Albion in December 2020.
● With one goal and three assists, Phil Foden has been involved in four goals in his last two Premier League starts for Manchester City against Leeds.
● Man City’s Erling Haaland has scored 16 goals in 16 Premier League games on Saturdays this season. The last player to score more Saturday goals in a single campaign was Mohamed Salah (19 in 2017-18).
● 19-year-old Wilfried Gnonto has assisted three Premier League goals in his last six appearances in the competition and has four assists this season for Leeds – the only Whites player to assist more goals in a Premier League season as a teenager was Gary Kelly in 1993-94 (5).
TOTTENHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Another struggling London club are favourites here as Spurs host Crystal Palace. My feelings on Spurs this season are in line with Chelsea; it’s very hard to support them at the moment especially at odds on. They are currently trading 1.88 to beat a Crystal Palace side who have seen a big jump in performance since Roy Hodgson came back. Both sides come into this game off the back of rollercoaster 4-3 games at the weekend, Palace beating West Ham and then Spurs on the losing side against Liverpool. Gary Neville commented that “is the most Spurs thing you’ll ever see” when Spurs battled back from 3-0 down to 3-3 only to throw it away in injury time with a mistake right outside their own box. It was incredible viewing; it was classic Spurs unfortunately. They are going to miss out on Champions League football now next season, and they are going to have to work very hard to keep Harry Kane during the summer. There’s going to be a lot of interest, and his contract situation isn’t ideal either. That 4-3 win for Palace meant they had won four of their last six, and they will be a big test for Spurs in my opinion.
The major problem for Spurs this season is they only seem to starting playing when they go behind. I really don’t know where that has come from, but they only seem to turn up when they are two or more goals down! It was the same in the second half 2-0 down against Manchester United, although United were out on their feet in the second half with their hectic schedule. It might pay to lay Spurs with a view to trading out if they go behind early, but from an outright point of view I still like the 1.88 lay on Spurs. They just haven’t been playing well enough to justify those odds at the moment. Palace have been creating a lot of chances recently too – they have created xG figures like 2.84, 3.34 and 2.71 recently which have been their best performances of the season. I feel this game lands at a good time for Palace, Spurs must be feeling very low on confidence and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Palace win; however the 1.88 lay is a nice position with the draw on our side.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W12 D2), with that defeat coming at Selhurst Park last season (0-3).
● Crystal Palace have lost each of their last seven Premier League away games against Spurs, netting just one goal in these meetings. Overall, they’re winless in 10 on the road against Tottenham in the league (D2 L8) since a 1-0 victory in November 1997.
● Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their Premier League games against Crystal Palace (14/27), their highest rate against any opponent they’ve faced more than 20 times.
● Crystal Palace have won four of their six Premier League games since Roy Hodgson returned to the dugout (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 20 (D6 L10). They’ve also scored more goals in these six games (13) than they had in the previous 20 (12).
● Tottenham have conceded 57 Premier League goals this season (including 15 in their last four), their most in a single campaign since 2007-08 (61). The highest finishes for a team conceding 60+ goals in a single Premier League season came in 1992-93 – Norwich (3rd, 65 goals conceded) and Tottenham (8th, 66).
● Tottenham have conceded a league-high 13 goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League this season – more than half of these (7) have come in their most recent three games (3 vs Newcastle, 1 vs Man Utd, 3 vs Liverpool).
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has been involved in 10 goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace (7 goals, 3 assists), while teammates Son Heung-min has been involved in seven in his last seven against the Eagles (5 goals, 2 assists).
● Richarlison scored his first Premier League goal for Tottenham in their 4-3 loss at Liverpool last time out. He last scored in consecutive league appearances in his final two for Everton in May last season, the second game of which was against Crystal Palace.
● Eberechi Eze has scored four Premier League goals since Roy Hodgson’s return, more than any other Crystal Palace player. These four goals have come in his last five games, as many as he’d netted in his previous 33 appearances.
● Michael Olise has provided nine assists in the Premier League this season and could become the first Crystal Palace player to reach double figures in a single campaign.
WOLVES V ASTON VILLA
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Aston Villa. Wolves will be hoping to bounce back from the embarrassment of losing 6-0 to Brighton last weekend, especially with Brighton dropping/resting half of their main XI! Aston Villa also suffered a defeat last weekend away to Manchester United, but in general both sides have been winning plenty of games recently. That loss broke an unbeaten run of ten games for Villa, while Wolves have moved themselves away from the relegation battle in recent weeks with wins over Chelsea, Brentford and Crystal Palace. We have the most open market of the day here! Aston Villa are the favourites, currently trading 2.56 at the time of writing with Wolves 3.1 and the draw is 3.35. Wolves will be happy to be back at home because they have been very poor away from home this season. They have only managed 11 points from their 17 away games – only Leeds and Nottingham Forest have a worse record than that and that also puts Wolves into the relegation zone on away form. At home they have been much stronger, but Villa have been excellent under Emery and the 2.56 is a tempting bet.
It still surprises me to see Aston Villa battling for the European spots! With one of the Manchester clubs going to win the FA Cup, and Manchester United already winning the League Cup there will be extra spots in Europe down the Premier League table. It would be a remarkable achievement for Emery to get Villa into any form of European football – they were closer to the relegation zone when he took over! Wolves have been pretty poor in front of goal this season, they are scoring less than one goal per game this season and that would turn your eye to Under 2.5 goals at 1.75. I really like Aston Villa at 2.56 here however – they have been playing much better football compared to Wolves recently, and there’s no shame losing 1-0 away to Manchester United, especially when they had chances for a draw too. The 2.56 is my most confident bet of the 3pm games!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against Aston Villa (W2 D2), last having a longer run without defeat against them in the league between April 1957 and August 1961 (8 games).
● Aston Villa have lost two of their last three Premier League away games against Wolves, as many as they had in their previous 15 top-flight visits (W7 D6).
● Wolves have won their last three Premier League home games by an aggregate score 5-0. They last won four in a row at Molineux in the top-flight in April 1975, while they last did so without conceding a single goal in December 1969 (5 in a row).
● Of the current 20 Premier League sides, Wolves have the lowest win rate in games played in May, picking up just six victories from their 22 such matches (27% – D6 L10).
● Wolves have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), suffering their biggest ever defeat in the competition at Brighton last time out (0-6).
● Aston Villa’s 1-0 loss at Man Utd last time out ended a 10-game unbeaten run in the Premier League and was the first time they’ve failed to score in 21 league games under Unai Emery. The Villans last lost consecutive league games in February (a run of three).
● Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has won just one of his six meetings with Wolves’ Julen Lopetegui (D3 L2), with each of the last three finishing 1-1. This is their third meeting this season (one in LaLiga, one in Premier League), with the away side opening the scoring before drawing 1-1 in both.
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery is winless in all four of his Premier League meetings with Wolves (D3 L1) – no side has he faced more often without ever winning in the competition (Liverpool also four).
● Rúben Neves is Wolves’ joint top scorer in the Premier League this season with six goals. Five of these have been scored at Molineux, with no other Wolves player netting more than twice at home this season.
● Ollie Watkins has scored seven away goals in the Premier League this season, netting in six in a row on the road between January and mid-April. Only three Aston Villa players have scored more away goals in a single campaign – Dean Saunders (8 in 1994-95), Dwight Yorke (9 in 1997-98) and Christian Benteke (8 in 2012-13).
LIVERPOOL V BRENTFORD
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Liverpool hosting Brentford. After a thrilling 4-3 win over Spurs last weekend, Liverpool were in action midweek against Fulham. They notched up another win there, although the difference was only one goal it was a less dramatic win at 1-0! That’s five wins in a row for Liverpool, and while they have been conceding goals along the way they have shot up the table. The gap is too big to Manchester United for the Top Four, but they should finish fifth. Whether or not Europa League football is a good thing or not for next season is a debate – plenty of tricky long trips away, but they’ll probably be favourites to win it if they take it seriously. Brentford have put two wins together coming into this game against Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, and this should be a good game to watch. Brentford have been playing good football recently too and could have won more games. For example they lost 2-1 against Newcastle but didn’t that game with an xG of 2.54 and then created an xG of 2.40 in their 1-1 draw against Aston Villa. Liverpool have been unreliable at the back all season, and they should be tested here against an attacking Brentford side.
After their good run of form, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.5 at the time of writing with Brentford 6.8 and the draw is 5.3. Liverpool were only trading a few ticks higher against Spurs last weekend, and despite the way they had to win that game, I actually feel that was an easier game on paper. Brentford come into the game playing better football than Spurs, and they have been creating more chances too. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here, but I couldn’t put anyone off a Liverpool lay at 1.5. The bet I like is Both Teams To Score at 1.7. Both sides like to play an attacking brand of football, and they both concede plenty of chances too. Liverpool’s average xG conceded this season is 1.6 while Brentford have the same figure at the back! They both also create lots of chances, and have an average xG created higher than their conceded figure. We should have a good end-to-end game here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have lost just one of their 10 home meetings with Brentford in all competitions (W7 D2), winning the last six in a row since a 4-3 loss in November 1937 in the top-flight.
● Following their 3-1 win at the Gtech Community Stadium in January, Brentford are looking to complete their first ever league double over Liverpool, in what is the seventh different campaign in which they’ve met.
● Brentford have won just two of their 14 Premier League games against sides in the top five of the table (D5 L7), though both of these victories came away from home (4-1 v Chelsea in April 2022, and 2-1 at Man City in November this season).
● Liverpool have lost six of their last 11 Premier League games played on Saturday (W3 D2), one more than they had in their previous 90 (W65 D20 L5). However, they’ve won their last three in the 5.30pm kick-off slot by an aggregate score of 7-0, since drawing 3-3 with Brentford last season.
● Brentford have won their last two Premier League games. They’re looking to win three in a row for the first time since January, which included a 3-1 victory over Liverpool.
● Since their promotion to the division in 2021, 21 of Brentford’s 25 Premier League wins have come when having less possession than their opponents. It’s at least four victories more than any other side has managed in that time while averaging less than 50% possession.
● Brentford’s Yoane Wissa has scored two goals in his three Premier League games against Liverpool, scoring once on average every 54 minutes against the Reds. However, both of his strikes against them have come at the Gtech Community Stadium.
● As a Liverpool player, against no side has Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain scored more Premier League goals than he has against Brentford (2). He netted the Reds’ goal in their 3-1 defeat in January but has never scored home and away goals against a side in the same season before.
● Ivan Toney has alternated between not scoring (7) and scoring (7) in each of his last 14 Premier League games, netting exactly once on each seven occasions he’s scored. He scored Brentford’s equaliser in their 2-1 win against Nottingham Forest last time out.
● Of Ivan Toney’s 20 Premier League goals for Brentford this season, 11 have come at home, and nine away. With Erling Haaland and Harry Kane both already doing so, this could be the second ever Premier League campaign to see three players score 10+ home and away goals after 1993-94 (5 players – Andy Cole, Alan Shearer, Matt Le Tissier, Chris Sutton and Ian Wright).
