SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top European action all with a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with AC Milan v Lazio in Serie A at 2pm
AC MILAN V LAZIO
2pm We have a fantastic Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have some huge games in Serie A and the Bundesliga, then we finish the day with the Copa del Rey Final! Napoli might have the title won in Serie A, but we have a brilliant top four battle between Lazio, Juventus, Inter Milan, Atalanta, AC Milan and Roma! A couple of weeks ago Juventus and Atalanta weren’t in the mix, but the 15 point deduction overturned for Juventus bounced them back into third, and Atalanta have seemingly come back from the dead in the top four race with the others dropping points. We have a huge weekend ahead as AC Milan meet Lazio, Roma host Inter Milan and then on Sunday Atalanta host Juventus! We’re going to know a lot more after this weekend. You have to feel that this is a must win game for AC Milan having home advantage – Lazio have been the weakest side in the top four race if you look at their under-lining numbers and they have lost two of their last three games. They have been over-performing at the back and up front – for example their average xG created is 1.3 but their actual goals scored is 1.6 and then they are conceding an average xG of 1.2 but their actual goals conceded is only an average of 0.7.
That’s a huge difference in performance for Lazio, and a lot of points. The xG table drops them down to mid-table in ninth. So, AC Milan will be looking at this as a good chance to deal a blow to their rival and record a huge three points at the same time. AC Milan have dropped so many points recently they start the weekend in sixth, six points behind Lazio in second and two behind Inter Milan in fourth. They also have the small matter of a Champions League Semi-Final next week to worry about! AC Milan come into the game as the hot favourite, just marginally above evens at 2.02 at the time of writing. It’s clear that they have been playing the better football than Lazio this season, but they have been dropping a lot of points recently. It’s hard to make the case that they should be odds on, especially when Lazio have grinded out so many results away from home this season. With AC Milan struggling to score goals, and Lazio not creating a lot, Under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal here at 1.71.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmLaz
ROMA V INTER MILAN
5pm We stay in Serie A next for another huge game in the top four race as Roma host Inter Milan! This is another huge game for Roma who have had a tricky fixture list to finish the season. They were sitting in the top four but things have gone wrong recently, pretty much ever since Juventus had their 15 point deduction overturned, and that followed some poor results too. The end result is they find themselves starting the weekend sitting down in seventh, but they do have the same amount of points as Atalanta and AC Milan above them, and being only two points behind Inter Milan a win here would see them jump over them. The major problem for Jose Mourinho though is his side has struggled to score goals recently, and they have had injury problems as well. Not only have they got a huge game here, they are in the Europa League Semi-Final next week – if they are going to drop out of the European spots domestically then that’s added pressure to win the Europa League – but that would be up there with Roma’s biggest ever achievement as well so that’s a massive carrot in front of them. Inter have dropped a lot of points this season, but they have hit form at the right time. They’ve beaten Empoli 3-1, Lazio 3-1 and Verona 6-0 in their last three games. They have finally found their goal scoring touch – in fairness they have been creating a lot all season without taking their chances.
Roma have their hands full here, and they can’t afford to drop more points. I’m sure the stadium will be absolutely rocking! In fairness to Roma, they were unlucky midweek with the 1-1 draw away to Monza – they created an xG figure very close to three times what they conceded, but at the same time that level of performance won’t be good enough against this Inter side. Roma have been conceding more chances recently – their average xG conceded this season is very low at 0.8 but Inter will still give them problems here. We have an open market with Inter trading 2.54 favourites at the time of writing, Roma are 3.25 with the draw the same price. I feel Mourinho won’t be unhappy with a draw here and move onto easier fixtures in Serie A, but I feel this game comes at an excellent time for Inter who are in great form. They are worth backing at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Inter Milan to beat Roma at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomInt
WERDER BREMEN V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm We move to the Bundesliga next as Werder Bremen host Bayern Munich. Despite Dortmund losing Erling Haaland, who just broke the Premier League goal scoring record this week, we have been having a closer than usual title race in the Bundesliga this season! Dortmund will be kicking themselves for dropping points last weekend, and a win for Bayern Munich over Hertha Berlin sent them back to the top by one point. Bayern still have to play RB Leipzig, but they have home advantage and their other three fixtures looks reasonably straightforward. Dortmund have a reasonably “easy” fixture list too, and that draw with Bochum could have blown their chances. Dortmund also drew recently with Stuttgart who have been in the relegation battle, and you have to feel that Bayern have “got away with one” this season. They should have no problems dealing with Werder Bremen here, and the market is confident on the away win with Bayern trading 1.36 at the time of writing. Werder Bremen are 9.0 and the draw is 6.2.
Werder Bremen come into this game off the back of losing to Schalke who have been in the relegation battle. They have been playing very average football this season, and although they aren’t involved in the relegation battle they aren’t far away points wise – seven points in a nice cushion, but also reflects you have been average. Bayern clearly haven’t been at their best this season, but the reality here is they shouldn’t need to be to win. Werder Bremen have only managed one Bundesliga win in eight games, and they have been conceding more chances than they are creating this season. Bayern can cover the 1.5 goal Handicap, and they are worth backing at 1.82. Bayern’s average xG created is 2.3 this season, and couple that with all the chances Werder concede and the 1.82 looks good value. It will be very interesting to see how Bayern and Dortmund perform over the next two weeks given how close the title race is – it’s been a while since we’ve had a title race like this in Germany!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Werder Bremen at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WerBay
REAL MADRID V OSASUNA
9pm We finish a cracking Saturday with the Cope Del Rey Final from Spain! Real Madrid take on Osasuna, and they will be the hot favourites to win here. They are currently trading 1.38 in the match odds market to win in 90 minutes with Osasuna 9.8 and the draw is 5.3. Make no mistake about it, this is a World Cup Final for Osasuna – a Cup win, even without the fact it’s in a Final against Real Madrid, would be their biggest ever achievement. They reached the final in 2004/05 but lost to Real Betis. The last trophy was the Segunda title in 2018/19, and they have been your classic mid-table La Liga side since. Both sides were in action midweek, and they both lost with Real Madrid losing away to Real Sociedad and Osasuna losing away to Barcelona. Real Madrid have definitely taken their foot off the gas in La Liga in recent weeks, so I wouldn’t read too much into their recent performances. The gap to Barcelona is too big for them to close, and they would be been building towards this Final and the Champions League Semi-Final next week against Manchester City. The sides have already met twice in La Liga this season – they drew 1-1 when Real Madrid had home advantage but Real were unlucky there as they finished the game with an xG of 2.87 and then Real won 2-0 away from home.
Osasuna only managed xG figures of 0.48 and 0.60 this season against Real, and to be honest it would be a major shock if they won. It’s hard to see anything bar a Real win, but with them trading as short as 1.38 we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. It’s hard to make the case that Real should be trading around 1.3 – the 1.38 is a fair reflection of their chances of winning the game. Real have been playing an exceptionally open and entertaining game in La Liga recently, but I would expect them to be tighter here. Osasuna will likely sit back, possibly even play with a view towards a draw, perhaps they “go for it” in the final ten minutes. To be honest they didn’t have much success sitting back against Real this season; I know they picked up a draw but they offered so little going forward it’s hard to see them scoring. Osasuna are averaging less than one goal per game in La Liga this season, and their average xG created is only 1.2. Real can keep a clean sheet here, and I don’t see them running riot here. Under 2.5 goals is worth backing at 2.31 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.31 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CopadR
