SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’sgames with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with Leeds v Newcastle at 12.30pm.


12.30pm The pressure is growing as we tick off the final games in the Premier League! We have another massive day ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Saturday with games that will have a big impact on the relegation battle and the race for European spots. We kick the day off with a massive game for Leeds as they host Newcastle. Bank Holiday Monday wasn’t a good day for Leeds with wins for Everton and Nottingham Forest. After losing against Manchester City last weekend that left them sitting in the bottom three along with Leicester. Southampton are going down, but Leeds and Leicester start this weekend two points behind Everton and three behind Nottingham Forest. It’s an understatement to say the home side need a win here. They face an excellent Newcastle side who have played good football all season though. Newcastle lost 2-0 last weekend against Arsenal and that would have been a disappointing result for them with home advantage – it also left the door slightly open for Liverpool in the Top Four race – although Klopp’s men are more likely to catch Manchester United than Newcastle. Still, Newcastle need to confirm that Top Four spot and close out the season strongly.

Leeds have a tough run-in. They meet Newcastle here, have Spurs at home on the final day and in between those fixtures is West Ham away. You might say West Ham is the easiest fixture, but Leeds have only managed nine points away from home all season – their away form has been terrible so that puts even more pressure on the two home games. In fairness given the way the sides have played, they probably have more chance of winning against Spurs than Newcastle! The away side are trading odds on at the time of writing at 1.73, with Leeds 5.1 and the draw is 4.3. You can forgive Leeds last weekend for losing against Manchester City, but their form recently has been very poor – the change in manager to Big Sam is an odd decision with so few games too; can he really have an impact in such a short space of time? Leeds are conceding an average xG of 1.9 this season, while Newcastle are creating an average of 2.0. We have a top class side going forward against a side who are poor at the back here – I can only see a Newcastle win to start the day.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Leeds at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Leeds have failed to score in their last two Premier League games against Newcastle, last going three in a row between April 1996 and January 1997.
● Newcastle have won 54% of their Premier League away games against Leeds (7/13). They’re the only side the Magpies have won over half of their visits to in the competition (minimum 5 games).
● Leeds have both scored and conceded in each of their last 10 league games (15 scored, 29 conceded) since losing 0-1 to Chelsea in March. The last side to have a longer run of both scoring and conceding in the Premier League were Everton (16 in a row from September 2012 to January 2013), while only in October 1928 and December 1937 (both 11 in a row) have Leeds ever had a longer such stretch in their league history.
● Newcastle have won four of their last five away league games (L1), as many as their first 12 on the road this season (D6 L2). The Magpies have eight away Premier League wins this season overall, last enjoying more on their travels in a top-flight campaign in 2001-02 (9).
● Since recording 12 clean sheets in their first 20 Premier League games this season, Newcastle have only kept one in their last 14, and none in their last seven overall. In fact, since the start of February, only Leicester (0) have fewer Premier League clean sheets than the Magpies (1).
● Leeds have won all four of their Premier League matches when starting the day in the relegation zone this season, compared to just three wins in their 31 games when not in the bottom-three (D9 L19). They also beat Brentford on the final day last season when in 18th position at the start of the day – no team in Premier League history has won six consecutive games in which they’ve started in the relegation zone.
● When Leeds and Newcastle last faced at Elland Road in January 2022, the Magpies had just one win in their opening 20 league games of 2021-22 and were 10 points behind Leeds. Since and including that game – a 1-0 Newcastle win – the Magpies have the fourth-most points in the division (102), and have won 56 more points than Leeds in that time (46).
● Leeds manager Sam Allardyce has won more Premier League matches against Newcastle United than any other side (13). He’s won his first home Premier League game in charge of five of his previous eight clubs (D1 L2), one of which was a 3-0 win over Newcastle in October 2015 with Sunderland.
● Leeds’ Rodrigo has scored 12 Premier League goals this season, only scoring more in a single top-flight campaign once in his career (16 in LaLiga in 2017-18). Only five Spanish players have ever netted more in a Premier League season: Fernando Torres (3 times), Cesc Fàbregas, Michu, Diego Costa (2 times) and Fernando Llorente.
● Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier has created 101 chances in the Premier League this season, second only to Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (103). The last Englishman with more in a season was Leighton Baines in 2012-13 (116).

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3pm We have a busy Saturday afternoon with five games kicking off at 3pm, the first of which is Aston Villa hosting Spurs. This should be an interesting game, and it will give us an idea where Spurs stand at the moment. It’s fair to say that they have been the butt of all jokes recently; they’ve dropped out of the Top Four race and now they just need to finish the season strongly with a view to the future. If they let their heads drop, I can see Harry Kane moving on in the summer. Surely he will be tempted away given the lack of Champions League football, and also the general direction of the club isn’t one of success. Spurs thankfully got back to winning ways last weekend with a hard fought 1-0 win at home against Crystal Palace. Most of their poorer performances have come away from home this season though, and they meet an Aston Villa side who have been very impressive since Unai Emery took over. Their good momentum hit a bump in the road however with a 1-0 loss against Manchester United, and then they followed that up with a 1-0 loss against Wolves last weekend. They were unlucky in that game though – they finished the game with an xG figure close to three times what they conceded, they just didn’t take their chances.

It’s a sign of the time that Aston Villa are the clear favourites here. They are trading 2.34 at the time of writing, Spurs are 3.2 and the draw is 3.8. That’s just a reflection of the fact Villa have been quite impressive under Emery, and Spurs have been all over the place recently too. Sacking Conte didn’t really change much – he might have been a bit toxic in the press conferences after games, but things haven’t changed since he left. To be honest, looking in from the outside Spurs don’t look like a “well run” club, and that needs to change if they are going to win something soon. If Kane leaves you could see them missing out on European football for a number of season, almost as long as Arsenal had to wait to get back into the Champions League. I feel we’ll have an open game here, Villa haven’t sat back under Emery and Spurs have been conceding goals for fun recently. Both Teams To Score looks a nice position at 1.7 in what should be an open game.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Following their 2-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Spurs since 1995-96.
● Tottenham have won their last seven Premier League away games against Aston Villa, netting at least two goals each time. In their league history, they’ve never won eight in a row away on the road against an opponent.
● Aston Villa’s last four Premier League wins against Tottenham have come away from home. They’re winless in 11 against them at Villa Park in the competition (D2 L9), since a 2-1 win in January 2008.
● Aston Villa have won each of their last five Premier League games at Villa Park, all without conceding; they last won six in a row in league competition at home in February 1993 (run of 7), while only in February 1971 as a third-tier side have they ever done so while keeping a clean sheet in all six wins.
● Tottenham are without a win in their last six away league games (D2 L4), losing their last two in a row. Spurs last suffered three straight away league defeats in February 2021.
● Tottenham have conceded 35 away league goals this season, including 19 in their last six outings. Spurs last shipped more on the road in a league campaign in 2000-01 (38), while 19 goals are the most they’ve let in over a run of six consecutive away league matches since October 1976 to February 1977 (21).
● After scoring in each of their first 20 Premier League games under Unai Emery, Aston Villa have failed to score in their last two. They haven’t gone three in a row without a league goal since July 2020, while Emery hasn’t gone three league games in a row in charge of a single side without a goal since his Almeria side had a run of four blanks in October and November 2007.
● Across the last three seasons, only five players have more goals and assisted combined in the Premier League than Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (39 goals, 13 assists). Watkins has 14 goals this season, equalling his best top-flight tally from 2020-21, with the last Englishman to score more in a top-flight season for Villa coming back in 1990-91, when David Platt scored 19.
● Harry Kane has scored in 23 Premier League games this season, just one short of the record in a 38-game campaign set by Mo Salah in 2017-18 (24 games scored). Five of those games have been 1-0 wins for Tottenham; no player has ever scored the winner in more 1-0 wins in a single Premier League season (Eric Cantona in 1995-96 and James Beattie in 2002-03 also 5).
● Aston Villa’s Ashley Young has played 1,911 minutes in the Premier League this season – if he plays at least 89 minutes in this game, he would be the first English outfield player with 2,000+ minutes in a Premier League season while aged 37 or older since Teddy Sheringham in 2003-04 (2,217), the season in which Young made his league debut for Watford aged 18.


3pm This game could be a big talking point the weekend! Chelsea host Nottingham Forest after both sides won over the Bank Holiday weekend. Frank Lampard finally got his first win as Chelsea manager, and Nottingham Forest recorded a huge 4-3 win over Southampton. That was a very important win for them after Leicester had lost and Everton won earlier in the day – the stadium was buzzing! That win took Forest out of the relegation zone, and it gives them a fighting chance of staying up. Morale will be good heading into this game, but they still have to solve the issue of their away form. They have been terrible on the road this season, and that’s why they have been in the relegation battle. They’ve only managed six points from their 17 away games this season – that’s the worst away record in the Premier League this season. Although things haven’t gone well away from home, given Chelsea have been in such a mess lately they might fancy this game. If nothing else, they should attack with a “nothing to lose” mindset and see how this Chelsea side cope.

Chelsea are having their worst season for many years, and although they got back to winning ways last weekend I wouldn’t trust them enough to back them at 1.53 here. In my opinion, that’s just a price to avoid this weekend – definitely not one you want to include in your weekend Acca! Chelsea haven’t been involved in too many high scoring games, but they have had two or more goals in all of their recent games in all competitions. Nottingham Forest have been playing a very open game lately, and Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last four games. I can see them attacking Chelsea here too, and we could have a very entertaining game. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and Over 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal at 1.89. I was expecting to see it trading a little shorter at 1.8 – I’m not sure Nottingham Forest know how to have a quiet game!

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Chelsea have won their last six home games against Nottingham Forest, netting at least two goals each time. The last five such meetings have been in cup competitions, with this the Blues’ first home league game against Forest since September 1998 (2-1).
● Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 12 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (D3 L8), a 2-0 home win in January 1997. Their last win at Stamford Bridge was in the Premier League in January 1995.
● Chelsea have lost at home against a promoted side in each of the last two Premier League campaigns, going down 5-2 against West Brom in 2020-21 and 4-1 against Brentford last season. They’d only lost at home to a promoted club in three of the first 28 campaigns of the competition (1994-95 v Nottingham Forest, 2000-01 v Charlton and 2015-16 v Bournemouth).
● Chelsea are winless in their last five home league games, losing both of their last two. They haven’t had a longer home run without winning in the Premier League since April 1995 (a run of 12), while only in November 1993 have they ever suffered three consecutive defeats at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
● Nottingham Forest have lost each of their last seven Premier League games away from home, and last endured a longer league losing run on their travels from October 1961 to February 1962 (9 in a row).
● Chelsea have started more different players (31) than any other side in the Premier League in 2022-23, making a league-high 123 starting XI changes in the competition this term. They have also had more different goalscorers (16) than any top-flight team this season (excluding own goals).
● Just 18% of Nottingham Forest’s points in the Premier League this season have been won away from home (6/33), the lowest ratio of points earned on the road by a side in a campaign in the division since 2016-17, when both Burnley (7/40) and Hull (6/34) also earned 18% of their points away from home.
● Taiwo Awoniyi has scored in five different Premier League games and in each one, he has put Nottingham Forest 1-0 ahead. The only player to score an opening goal in more Premier League games in a single season for the club is Stan Collymore in 1994-95 (8).
● Kai Havertz has scored more goals (7), had more shots (65), and created more chances (35) than any Chelsea player in the Premier League this season. He has 19 Premier League goals overall, and a goal in this match would see him become the youngest non-English player to reach 20 goals for the Blues in the competition (23 years, 336 days old) since Eden Hazard in February 2014 (23y 32d).
● Morgan Gibbs-White has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any player for Nottingham Forest this season (12 – 5 goals, 7 assists), including five in his last four games (3 goals, 2 assists). Just two of these have been away from home, however, scoring and assisting against Liverpool at Anfield in April.


3pm Crystal Palace host Bournemouth next, and this strikes me as a game that could easily get lost in amongst all the other games with strong narratives today. This is your classic “only gets five minutes” on Match of the Day! Both sides lost last Saturday to the struggling London clubs Spurs and Chelsea, but they have a stress free run-in safely away from the relegation battle. That’s an excellent result for Bournemouth who have been in danger, sometimes long odds on, to go down this season. They have hit form just at the right time, winning four of their last six games. Not only have they won games at the right time, they dealt massive blows to Leicester, Southampton and Leeds at the same time. There’s only one point between the sides coming into this game, and it will be interesting to see can Palace deal with Bournemouth with home advantage. Palace have been pretty poor this season, their performance has jumped since Roy Hodgson came back though, so we shouldn’t worry about them for next season too much.

Crystal Palace have conceded an average xG of 1.5 this season and only created an average of 1.2. Scoring goals has been a problem with just one goal per game. I would worry about those stats more if their performance level didn’t jump with the change in manager. The reality is they are your classic mid-table side going to finish between 12th and 14th – they just need a solid manager to make sure they avoid a relegation battle really. Bournemouth have worse stats – they concede an average xG of 1.9 and only create the same as Crystal Palace at 1.2. They need to sort out their issues at the back this summer if they want to improve their situation next season. They’ve fought hard to stay up now, but if they don’t fix their issues at the back they will end up like Leeds this season – we all saw the red flags at the back there! Palace come in into this game trading odds on and I have to say the 1.93 feels a little short. Palace have been average at home this season, and you can argue Bournemouth are playing their best football of the season. I expect this game to be closer than the odds suggest.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Bournemouth at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Having won just one of their first seven Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D4 L2), Crystal Palace have now won each of their last four against them.
● After keeping a clean sheet in their first Premier League meeting with Crystal Palace (0-0 in December 2015), Bournemouth have conceded in each of their last 10 against the Eagles.
● Crystal Palace lost 3-0 at home to Fulham in December – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games against promoted sides since February 2016, though one of those defeats was against Bournemouth.
● Crystal Palace have picked up seven points in their three home league games since Roy Hodgson returned to the club (W2 D1), as many as their final eight at Selhurst Park under Patrick Vieira beforehand (W1 D4 L3). The Eagles have scored six goals in those last three home league games under Hodgson, more than their final nine under Vieira (5).
● Bournemouth have won each of their last three Premier League away games, their longest ever such run in the top-flight, after having only won two of their first 14 away league matches in 2022-23 (D2 L10). They last won four away league games in a row in April 2021 as a Championship side.
● None of Bournemouth’s last 13 Premier League games have ended level (W7 L6); it’s the Cherries’ longest league run without a draw since going 19 between January and April 2013 in League One.
● Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson has won each of his last three Premier League meetings with Bournemouth; only against Burnley (5 from February 2010 to November 2019) and Leicester (6 from February 1998 to February 2019) has he ever had a longer winning streak as a manager in the competition.
● Since his Premier League debut in January, Dango Ouattara has made more progressive carries (76) than any Bournemouth player (moving 5+ metres upfield with the ball). On average, he progresses the ball upfield 8.6m with his carries; the only wide midfielder/winger with a higher average (min. 50 progressive carries) since Ouattara’s debut in the competition is Adama Traoré (9.2m)
● Exactly half of Eberechi Eze’s Premier League appearances have come under Roy Hodgson (41/82), but he has recorded 61% of his goals and assists in the competition under him (14/23 – 8 goals, 6 assists). Eze is Crystal Palace’s top league goalscorer since Hodgson’s first game back with the club in April (4 goals).
● Dominic Solanke has been directly involved in each of Bournemouth’s last four Premier League goals away from home (1 goal, 3 assists), and has 10 goal involvements overall on the road this season (4 goals, 6 assists). Only in 2018-19 has a player been involved in more away goals in a single Premier League campaign for the Cherries, when both Callum Wilson (14) and Ryan Fraser (11) did so.


3pm Just when you thought the Top Four race was over, Manchester United have opened the door for Liverpool with losses against Brighton and West Ham. They now face a must win game with home advantage against a Wolves side who have been very poor away from home this season. United still have a game in hand over Liverpool, but they are only one point clear starting the weekend. It’s not an ideal situation, especially because United have looked tired in recent weeks. They can only blame themselves though – they were 2-0 up against Spurs and threw it away, then David de Gea had an absolute howler against West Ham. One of the worst goalkeeper errors of the season to be honest, and that’s not even mentioning they only lost the Brighton game in the 99th minute which is always hard to take. Although they would have preferred to be in the Europa League Semi-Finals this week, it’s a real positive that they had a week to rest – their fixture list has been very hectic this season, and they haven’t had a full weeks rest for months. There can be no excuses here though – Wolves have only managed 11 points from their 17 away games this season which puts them in the bottom three on away form.

The market is expecting a comfortable home win. Manchester United come into the game trading 1.41 which is the lowest price on Saturday – Wolves are 8.8 while the draw is 5.4 at the time of writing. Wolves were hammered 6-0 in their last away game by a Brighton second XI, and also lost away to Leicester who have been so poor this season. They conceded an xG of 2.94 against Leicester, which was Leicester’s highest figure this season. Wolves have clearly been there for the taking away from home, and United simply must take advantage. They have struggled for goals lately however, and it’s hard to make the case that they should be a lot shorter than their current 1.41. I like Under 2.5 goals here at 2.38, and was very surprised to see it trading so high when I clicked into the market. Wolves won’t offer much going forward, and United are hardly banging in goals for fun. I can see United grinding their way to a 1-0 or 2-0 win.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Manchester United lost this exact fixture 1-0 last season – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games against Wolves since a run of three between March 1960 and September 1961.
● The away side has won each of the last four Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Wolves, though three of those victories came for the Red Devils at Molineux.
● The last nine meetings between Manchester United and Wolves in all competitions have produced just 10 goals (7 for Man Utd, 3 for Wolves), with just three goals being scored in the four games at Old Trafford in that run.
● Wolves have lost 10 of their last 11 Premier League games away from home against sides starting the day in the top four (D1) since winning 2-0 at Manchester City in October 2019. They have scored just four goals in those last 11 matches, while shipping 23.
● Manchester United have won 24 matches at Old Trafford in all competitions this season; only in 2002-03 (27), 2007-08 (25) and 2010-11 (26) have the Red Devils ever enjoyed more home wins in a single campaign.
● Wolves have only won two of their last 21 Premier League away games (D6 L13), losing their last two in a row, including a 6-0 defeat at Brighton most recently. In fact, since the first of their last 21 away league games in April 2022, Wolves have earned fewer points on the road in the Premier League than any other ever-present side in this period (12).
● Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five Premier League home games, last recording more in a row from May to October 2017 (6), and last doing so within a single season from December 2009 to March 2010 (7).
● Marcus Rashford has scored 19 home goals in all competitions for Manchester United this season – the last player to net more at Old Trafford in a single campaign was Wayne Rooney (20 in 2009-10).
● Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has created 34 chances for Marcus Rashford in the Premier League this season. Since Opta have this data available (from 2006-07), only two players have created more for a single teammate in one campaign in the competition: Christian Eriksen for Harry Kane in 2017-18 (40) and Troy Deeney for Odion Ighalo in 2015-16 (39).
● Rúben Neves (6 goals, 1 assist) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any player for Wolves this season. However, only one of those seven goal involvements has come away from home, a goal at Brentford in October.


3pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with Southampton hosting Fulham! Unfortunately for Southampton, they are now nailed on to go down this season. They just haven’t been good enough – their average xG conceded this season is 1.7 and they have only created an average of 1.1. They aren’t even taking those chances as they are scoring less than one goal per game. They have a lot of issues all over the park, and they will struggle to bounce back up from the Championship. It’s a shame because Southampton have been a Premier League side for so many years, but they have been creeping closer and closer to the relegation zone over the few year and this was the final nail in the coffin. Their home form has been the major issue – only ten points from their 17 home games which is the worst record in the Premier League this season, and even six points off the next placed side which is Leicester. Southampton have actually managed more points away from home this season, but as we all know – when you’re in a relegation battle you really need your home form. Just look at Nottingham Forest; terrible record away from home but their home fans have kept them alive.

We have a very open market here, indeed the most open market of the day. Fulham are the favourites currently trading 2.6 at the time of writing with Southampton 2.94 and the draw is 3.6. As I noted above, being at home isn’t really an advantage for Southampton! I haven’t been a huge fan of Fulham this season because they have massively over-performed at the back. For example their average xG conceded is a very high 1.9, but their actual goals conceded average is only 1.4. That’s “only” a difference 0.5 you might say, but that’s a lot of points. The xG table puts them just outside the bottom three for example, and that’s definitely something they’ll have to fix before next season if they want to avoid slipping into a relegation battle. For this game though, the 2.6 is worth a small bet. Southampton have been so poor at home, and Fulham do create more chances – that will be the difference here.

The Striker Says:
One point win Fulham to beat Southampton at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● Southampton have lost just one of their 31 home league games against Fulham (W22 D8) and are unbeaten in their last 21 against them (W15 D6) since a 2-1 loss in October 1935.
● Following their 2-1 win in December, Fulham are looking to complete their first ever league double over Southampton in what is the 32nd different campaign in which they’ve met.
● Failure to win this match for Southampton will see them relegated from the top-flight for the third time in their history, after 1973-74 and 2004-05. Saints have spent the previous 11 campaigns (including 2022-23) in the Premier League.
● Southampton have lost 23 Premier League games this season, their joint-most defeats ever suffered in a league campaign, also losing 23 times in 1971-72 and 1993-94.
● Fulham’s 14 wins are their joint-most in a single Premier League season, also winning 14 in 2003-04, 2005- 06, 2008-09, and 2011-12. The Cottagers have only won more games in a top-flight campaign in 1959-60 (17).
● Southampton have earned just 10 points from their 17 Premier League home games this season (W2 D4 L11). With just two games and six available points left to play for at St. Mary’s, this is guaranteed to be Saints’ lowest ever home points total in a Football League season (assuming 3 pts/win all-time), with their previous record low being 19 in 2017-18.
● Fulham have lost four of their last five away league games (W1), losing both of their last two without scoring. The Cottagers last lost three in a row on the road in a single season in the Premier League in April 2019 (a run of 7), and haven’t done so without scoring since December 2018.
● Fulham’s Bernd Leno has conceded 45 goals in the Premier League this season (excluding OGs), despite facing an xG on target total of 56.6. Indeed, according to our expected goals model, Leno has prevented more goals (11.6) than any other goalkeeper this term based on the quality of shots on target faced.
● Southampton’s Carlos Alcaraz has netted four goals in the Premier League this season, the joint-most of any player currently under-21 (along with Evan Ferguson), despite not making his debut in the competition until January 14th. Indeed, Alcaraz has the best minutes-per-goal ratio of any Southampton player in the league this term (200 – four goals in 800 minutes).
● Carlos Vinícius has been directly involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 1 assist), as many as his first 23 appearances in the competition for Fulham beforehand. The Brazilian is looking to find the net in back-to-back Premier League matches for the very first time.

DAQMAN Sat: Newmarket NAP
EFL TIPS: Championship, League One, League Two
SHAMROCK Sat: Gowran Park Preview
THE STRIKER Sat: Premier League Preview
THE ULTRA Sat: European Football Preview
THE ULTRA Sun: European Football Preview
2023 Ryder Cup preview
PAT HEALY: Recapping a brilliant week in Listowel
WEEK AHEAD: Champions League & Rugby World Cup
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