SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a bumper eight matches in the Premier League on Saturday all including a recommended BETDAQ bet – starting with VILLA v BRIGHTON at 12.30pm and ending with SPURS v LIVERPOOL at 5.30pm.
ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON
12.30pm It’s a massive Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week with a whopping eight fixtures to enjoy! It’s been a very busy run of fixtures with Champions League action and then we had the Carabao Cup Third Round this week, before heading straight back into the Champions League again next week. It’s very rare we actually get some many fixtures at 3pm now with so many TV slots, but we should have a cracking day ahead. We kick it off with Aston Villa hosting Brighton, and this should be a very entertaining game. Both sides had brilliant seasons last time with Unai Emery transforming Aston Villa since taking over, and Brighton really coming of age. Unfortunately they suffered a major setback in their first Europa League game last week with a shock loss, but I’m sure they’ll still come through the group. We have the most open market of the day here to start with; Aston Villa are marginal favourites at 2.56 with Brighton 2.68 and the draw is trading 4.1 at the time of writing.
I have to say the 2.68 on Brighton is a very appealing bet here. They have been superb this season, and come into this weekend with the joint-highest xG created figure in the Premier League. They are joint with Spurs, and the two of them are ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal! They haven’t been as good as those two at the back, but they have been reasonably solid as well. It’s hard not to be impressed with Brighton this season; they have performed perfectly. I know they have issues not taking their chances and they concede the odd sloppy goal, but that just comes with playing such an open game. Villa have been very attacking under Emery too; their average xG created is 1.56 this season which is decent. If they can hold that level they will compete for a European spot again. I have a lot of time for Aston Villa under Emery, but I do feel the odds are wrong here – I would have Brighton marginal favourites and not Villa, so I’m very happy to have a confident bet at 2.68 on the away win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Aston Villa at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBha
BOURNEMOUTH V ARSENAL
3pm We have a very busy afternoon this Saturday with six games kicking off at 3pm. As I said above, we usually don’t have that many games these days with so many TV slots and so many different platforms these days. We start with Bournemouth hosting Arsenal, and I’m sure most football fans will be expecting an Arsenal win here. They are trading 1.55 at the time of writing with Bournemouth at 6.2 and the draw is 5.0. Arsenal and only one other side are odds on to win away from home this weekend – the other side is Manchester City! Bournemouth have started the season slowly with just three points from their opening six games, that puts them just outside the relegation zone starting this weekend. They have had a difficult fixture list – they have had to play Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Brighton already – and they did pick up a draw against Chelsea too. It’s likely they’ll be involved in the relegation battle at some stage, but I feel they are too good to go down this season. At the moment, it seems Luton Town and Sheffield United will go back down, and there one of Everton, Wolves, Burnley and Bournemouth will join them.
We saw a very entertaining North London Derby last weekend, and Arsenal can be criticised for how quickly they conceded after taking the lead twice. Even Gary Neville called them celebrating too early when they went 2-1 up, only for Spurs to bounce back within seconds. Apart from that though, it’s been hard to fault Arsenal this season. Their average xG created is a very healthy 1.82 and they are one of only two sides conceding an average xG of under 1.0 so far this season – the other being Manchester City. Bournemouth have played better than their bare results, and that’s why we’ll see plenty of layers for Arsenal at around the 1.55 mark. The problem for Bournemouth though is they consistently concede plenty of chances. Their average xG conceded this season is a high 1.77 – only three sides have been worse at the back this season; Sheffield United, West Ham and Wolves. With those issues at the back, I just can’t see them getting a result here. Arsenal have been excellent away from home for a while now, and the 1.55 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Arsenal to beat Bournemouth at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouArl
EVERTON V LUTON TOWN
3pm Is it too early to call this a massive relegation six pointer? The way football moves these days, I don’t think so! Everton host Luton Town, and there has to be a lot of pressure on Everton to get a result here. They took some of that pressure off last weekend with a win over Brentford, and that was a surprising result away from home too. This is a chance to deal a hammer blow to another side that will be in the relegation battle and jump up the table, Everton simply have to take it. They come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.65 at the time of writing with Luton Town 6.4 and the draw is 4.0. I have to say backing Everton at odds on doesn’t seem an appealing bet to me, but you have to give them credit – they’ve put two wins together now after knocking Aston Villa out of the Carabao Cup midweek. That was away from home as well, and maybe the tide is finally turning for Sean Dyche. That being said, I’d rather just stay out of the match odds market than back Everton at a price like 1.65 at the moment.
What makes the match odds market more difficult here too is Luton have hardly done much to warrant support. Luton finally got their first Premier League point last weekend at home to Wolves; that was hardly an impressive result given Wolves are likely to be involved in the relegation battle too and they played more than half the game a man down too. Then Luton got knocked out of the Carabao Cup midweek against Exeter City. I have to say I know it’s early days in the season but they just don’t look up to Premier League standard, and their xG figures are poor too. They are conceding an average xG of 1.6 and only creating an average of 1.06. You can see why they are so short to get relegated. This is definitely a game that Everton should win, and I think they need to in the relegation battle even this early in the season, but I just can’t back them at 1.65. With both sides so average at the back, I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 2.07 and I’m happy to have a small investment on that. This is definitely a game for small stakes.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLut
MANCHESTER UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have a repeat of a Carabao Cup fixture midweek as Manchester United host Crystal Palace, again at Old Trafford. It’s funny how the fixture list always throws up stuff like this every season, despite it being completely random. United were very impressive midweek producing their best performance of the season, and I’m surprised to see them trading 1.6 here. United were trading 1.61 to win midweek, and I’m really surprised the price hasn’t moved after the performance. I was against United midweek because they hadn’t played well at all this season; however with ten Hag bringing in Mount and Amrabat I felt that made a huge difference. It will be interesting to see can they keep that performance level here, but I would still have them shorter than the current 1.6. Palace just didn’t look good enough midweek. The fact Amrabat had such a good game is a really positive sign for United fans because he is an Erik ten Hag signing – it highlights that the manager needs time to get the players he wants to fit the system.
It’s also worth noting that Rashford didn’t start. He has struggled this season and he’s clearly been sulking a little too; could he be starting to have a negative impact on the dressing room? As always, it’s interesting times at United – and that’s not even mentioning the Sancho situation! I really like the United bet here at 1.6, but I’m not going to go too crazy with the stakes. Let’s not get too carried away with a performance in the Cup, and remember United are still conceding more chances than they are creating in the Premier League. Crystal Palace actually have better under-lining figures at the moment, and you could easily be forgiven for wanting to be against United midweek. The change in personal made a huge difference though, and United can repeat their win here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester United to beat Crystal Palace at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnuCrl
NEWCASTLE V BURNLEY
3pm We have the shortest home win price of the day here as Newcastle host Burnley. Newcastle will come into this game absolutely buzzing. An 8-0 win over Sheffield United was followed by knocking Manchester City out of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night – you don’t get a bigger boost in confidence than that! They are trading red-hot favourites to follow up those wins here – currently 1.35 at the time of writing. That’s only one tick bigger than the shortest price of the day which is Manchester City to win at Wolves. At the start of the season, the general opinion was Burnley will avoid the relegation battle. They had just ran away with the Championship and looked like they had a squad good enough for the Premier League. Their start hasn’t gone that way though, and they start this weekend in the bottom three with just one point from their five games. They have had to play Manchester City, Spurs and Manchester United so they have had a difficult start to life in the Premier League – you get the feeling that they need a win soon though, just to kick start their season.
I mentioned this above but it looks like Luton Town and Sheffield United will go back down this season, then you have Burnley, Wolves, Everton and Bournemouth for the other spot. A few more losses and suddenly morale dips and that type of start can be hard to come back from for a side like Burnley – especially when they probably weren’t mentally expecting a relegation battle. Interesting times ahead. It’s very hard to see past a Newcastle win here though; they have had a fantastic week and it’s hard to knock them. Their average xG created is an impressive 1.71, while Burnley have pretty poor stats. Their average xG created is only 1.05 which is actually marginally lower than Luton Town for example. It’s a little early to be judging them based on their fixture list, but this should be an easy win for Newcastle. They can cover the 1.5 goal Handicap and that’s worth backing at 1.91.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcBur
WEST HAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm Speaking of the 8-0 Newcastle win above, Sheffield United will be hoping to quickly forget that result as they take on West Ham here. Obviously a loss like that will always make headlines and it’s just embarrassing in general; however it still is only one game. We saw last season with Liverpool beating Manchester United 7-0, it was a great day for Liverpool fans but their season was disappointing overall and Manchester United actually won a trophy along with a Top Four finish. The major issue for Sheffield United though is that game isn’t just a once off. They just haven’t looked up to Premier League standard so far, and their stats are very poor. They are conceding an average xG of 2.23 which is the highest figure conceded in the Premier League – eight goal results happen, but when you can consistently conceding enough chances that each side should score twice against you, that’s a huge problem.
That’s not even the only bad news for Sheffield United fans. Their average xG created is as low as 0.82 which is the worst record going forward in the Premier League. Not only are they the worst side at the back, they’re also the worst up front! It’s hard to see them having any success this season, and you’d be very surprised if they didn’t go back down to the Championship. I know they came very close to getting a result against Spurs, but again they conceded so many chances they wouldn’t have fully deserved a draw anyway. The only positive here for Sheffield United is that they are coming up against the second worst side at the back in the Premier League this season – West Ham are conceding an average xG of 2.17 which is obviously very high as well. They have got more points than they deserve so far based on their performances, and while Sheffield United are very poor I wouldn’t be rushing to back the Hammers at 1.48. I feel this game screams goals, and with so many issues at the back Over 2.5 goals looks a very nice option at 1.71 in what should be a game full of mistakes!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuShe
WOLVES V MANCHESTER CITY
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with the shortest price of the day as Manchester City travel to take on Wolves. I would suggest most football fans will see this as a case of how many goals will City score rather than will they win, and they are trading as short as 1.34 at the time of writing. It’s been hard to fault City this season, but they did crash out of the Carabao Cup midweek with a 1-0 loss at Newcastle. That rules out the quadruple talk at the first hurdle! Pep Guardiola apparently insisted he wasn’t targeting the quadruple afterwards, but let’s be honest – he has to say that after they’ve just lost! Surely it was something they would have loved to do after winning the treble. The reality of winning a quadruple is a lot different than talking about it; it pushes your squad to the limit and also the pressure of being perfect in so many knock out competitions. I would suggest City would be delighted with the Champions League again, and to be honest they look like they’ll win the Premier League easily this season. They start this weekend with a two point lead over Liverpool and, on paper, their biggest challengers Arsenal are already four points behind.
Wolves have started the season pretty poorly, and it’s very hard to see past a comfortable City win here. I’m not going to tip them up at odds of 1.34 because you don’t need me to point out bets at those prices, but they are definitely an option for any Acca this weekend! Wolves recorded a much needed win over Everton this season that means they start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, but their performance level has been poor. They will be involved in the relegation battle throughout the season, and they are conceding an average xG of 1.79 so far. That’s a very high figure, especially against a side like City that can tear you apart from anywhere. Wolves have consistently struggled to create chances over the last number of season, and their average xG this season is only 1.14. I like Both Teams Not To Score at 2.02 – that takes out the question of how many goals can City score, and they should control the game here with a lot of the ball so they can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolMnc
TOTTENHAM V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last on Saturday as we finish with Spurs hosting Liverpool. This is undoubtedly the highlight fixture of the weekend, and we should have a cracker too. Both sides come into the game in an excellent spot – Liverpool started the day just two points behind Manchester City at the top of the table, while Spurs sat in the Top Four. Ange Postecoglou has definitely brought the feel good factor back to Spurs, and he’s taken the most likable manager title of Jurgen Klopp over the last month too! Spurs start this weekend with a joint-highest xG created figure of 2.18, and with Liverpool also loving to play an open and attacking game we should have a very entertaining game to watch here. Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.44 which is the same price as Both Teams To Score, so the market is expecting plenty of action. Liverpool come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Spurs 3.1 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Hopefully we see as much drama as the North London Derby last weekend!
That was a big test for Spurs, and they did reasonably well. Arsenal will say that they did enough to win the game, but they definitely switched off celebrating the second goal too much and Spurs bounced back quickly. They still conceded an xG of 1.71, and while they beat Manchester United 2-0 here they also conceded an xG of 1.76 that day. Those are two worrying figures against a side like Liverpool who we know are just so talented. I would definitely lean towards Liverpool in the match odds market at 2.26, but I’m happy to stay out of the match market here. We all know Liverpool have issues at the back, and obviously Spurs have been creating a lot this season. I know the market is expecting goals, but I still feel there’s value in Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 in what should be an entertaining game. On paper, this could be one of the best end-to-end games of the season, hopefully we get an early goal and it sparks up.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmLfc