PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY and ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY
3pm Another Premier League Saturday rolls around on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have a shorter than usual fixture list with no 12.30pm kick off. It’s been a hectic week with the Champions League and Europa League Quarter-Finals. We start the day with four fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and the pick of them is easily Everton hosting Manchester City in my opinion. We all know that City just haven’t been firing this season, and now they have a fight on their hands for a Top Four spot. Not only is the pressure on to win this game, they’ll be very interested in the result between Aston Villa and Newcastle later on! City fans will also have their focus on Nottingham Forest, because Newcastle are flying at the moment – an impressive 5-0 hammering of Crystal Palace midweek put Newcastle four points ahead of City – they are only two behind Nottingham Forest though. You couldn’t rule Chelsea and Aston Villa out either, but they obviously needed a stronger finish than City. We have a very interesting market here with City marginally odds against – they are trading 2.02 with Everton 4.1 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing.
City haven’t been themselves this season, so it’s quite easy to understand why there are plenty of willing layers. They’ve been far too easy to play through, and Everton have been excellent under David Moyes. Obviously their overall stats over the season aren’t that good, but they have shown a lot more confidence under Moyes. They’ve only lost once in their last twelve Premier League games and that loss came away to Champions-in-waiting Liverpool; you can easily forgive that one. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.02 on City here, indeed it does feel a little short. It feels like we’ve been waiting for City to turn a corner and finish the season strongly, but they’ve just been lacklustre. The 0-0 draw away to Manchester Unites was exceptionally boring, and they’ve lost away to Nottingham Forest recently too. I’m going to keep stakes small here because obviously there is a gulf in class between the sides, but Everton have been very tough to beat lately so I’m happy with a small lay on City at the odds. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says: One point lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Everton at 2.02 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrMnc
ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish Saturday with a cracker as Aston Villa host Newcastle. This is an absolutely massive game for both sides in the race for European spots. Villa crashed out of the Champions League at the Quarter-Final stage on Tuesday night – although they gave their home fans a very entertaining 3-2 win, the damage was done in Paris in the first leg. This is an absolutely must win game for Villa if they want to see Champions League football next season – they come into this weekend three points behind Nottingham Forest in fourth but they also have Manchester City and Chelsea in between them. They will need a strong finish and other results to go their way – with Newcastle sitting in third too, not only does a win boost their chances it also hurts Newcastle. We have a reasonably open betting heat; Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.46 with Newcastle 3.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Although we have an open market, I’m actually surprised it’s not more open given the run Newcastle are on at the moment. They have won their last five Premier League games and you can add the Carabao Cup Final win to that too.
Newcastle have been scoring goals as well – twelve goals in their last three wins. A slightly worrying thing is they conceded a high xG figure against Crystal Palace midweek, but obviously they conceded a penalty which is 0.80 on its own. Villa have been creating a lot recently too; their average xG created is increasing each week which is a good sign – they were in the bottom six and now have moved up to mid-table. Both sides are conceding a decent volume of chances too – Villa’s average xG conceded is 1.42 and Newcastle have a figure of 1.47. Although I feel the Aston Villa lay offers some value, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because I feel this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.7 and Both Teams To Score is ten ticks shorter at 1.6. I expect a very open end-to-end game here given how many chances these sides are creating and conceding, so I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs at 1.7.
The Striker Says: Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlNwc
