PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s games starting with EVERTON v FOREST all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
1.30pm All eyes might be on Wembley for the FA Cup Semi-Final, but we have four very interesting Premier League fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the action with a huge relegation battle as Everton host Nottingham Forest. It’s a massive weekend in the Premier League relegation race – these two sets of fans will be glued to the Luton result on Saturday too! These two sides will feel a little unlucky to be in the relegation battle considering that they have got hit with points deductions but here we are. As things stand coming into the weekend, Luton have 25 points, Nottingham Forest have 26 and then we have Everton on 27 points. Everton have had a very tough time lately, they got absolutely hammered on Monday by Chelsea too losing 6-0, but they’ll be looking at this fixture as an excellent chance to claim three points. A win is badly needed too considering they’ve only managed one win in their last 15 Premier League games – that win came against Burnley here, and Everton face a very similar level of opponent. Everton come into the game as the favourites at 2.12 with Nottingham Forest 3.8 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
Everton can definitely call themselves unlucky to be this close to the relegation battle; they have an average xG created of 1.46 which is basically mid-table level. It’s only 0.01 behind Manchester United for example. However, they have put a terrible run together and that stat of one win in 15 Premier League games is hardly appealing when you’re backing a 2.12 shot! Forest have been pretty poor away from home, they don’t create much and they concede plenty of chances too – they have battled hard for ten points away from home this season, but only Sheffield United have record less than that. Everton have struggled to get results at home this season though, despite playing well. We could easily have a very cagey game here given what’s on the line, and Under 2.5 goals is a very nice price at 1.98. I do feel the 2.12 is a little short on Everton, but there aren’t many positives for Forest so I’m going to avoid the Everton lay and go with Unders at a nice price.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveNtt
ASTON VILLA V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Aston Villa host Bournemouth next, and Unai Emery’s men will surely still be on a high after reaching the Europa Conference League Semi-Finals on Thursday night. It was dramatic, it went to penalties in France but Emi Martinez was the shootout hero again and then celebrated in front of the Lille fans! Despite that high, Villa have to come back down to earth and focus on the Premier League now because they have a superb chance of getting Champions League football this season. They start the weekend sitting in fourth and now they have a three point advantage after beating Arsenal last weekend. That win was a complete bonus given how good Arsenal have been this season, and to make last weekend even more sweeter Spurs lost 4-0 to Newcastle. Spurs won’t play this weekend given the FA Cup fixture clashes, but they already have a game in hand on Villa. That game in hand comes away to Chelsea, and Spurs have a very difficult fixture list to end their season. They still have to play Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City. That loss against Newcastle was a huge blow for Spurs, and it really puts Villa in the box seat for that fourth spot. They have to keep their foot on the gas and win games like this though.
As you would expect, Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 1.9 with Bournemouth 3.9 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. I was surprised to see Villa trading odds on, but I have to say I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as high as 1.9. Both these sides have very similar figures going forward – Villa have an average xG created of 1.51 with Bournemouth just behind them at 1.49. Bournemouth have been much improved this season, they have created a lot but that has come at a cost of conceding chances. Their average xG conceded is 1.52 which is much higher than Villa’s, and they have also been conceding over that. Villa have dropped a few points recently so I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, however the 1.9 looks cracking value here in my opinion. They have been very solid at home this season and they can get the job done.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Bournemouth at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlBou
CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST HAM
3pm Crystal Palace host West Ham next hoping to follow up their win last weekend at Anfield. That was one of the biggest shocks of the season, and obviously had a big impact on the title race too. Liverpool had 70% possession and finished the game with an xG of 2.12, but you have to give credit to Crystal Palace for grinding out a result against all the odds. It came from nowhere though; they went into that game without a win in five Premier League games – they only game they had won was against Burnley from their last nine Premier League games too. I’ve highlighted that West Ham have come major red flags in their stats this season, but you wouldn’t be rushing to back Crystal Palace here. They come into the game as the clear favourites at 2.24 with West Ham 3.45 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. West Ham had a huge game on Thursday night against Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League Semi-Finals, they went into that tie 2-0 down from the first leg and they battled well on Thursday but it was always going to be very tough to turn that around.
If you look through the stats here, there are reasons to be against both sides! I’ve highlighted many times that West Ham have been one of the biggest over-performing sides in the Premier League this season; their average xG created is 1.18 but their actual goals scored average is much higher at 1.58. That’s why they sit up the table rather than towards the bottom because they have been very poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.78 which is the joint-second worse defensive figure in the Premier League. The big question here is are Palace good enough to take advantage? Their average xG created is only 1.11 which is the fourth worst attacking figure – only the three sides in the relegation zone have a lower figure than that. We have one of the worst attacking sides against one of the worst defensive sides here! I do feel that the 2.24 is too short on Palace here though; I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest and from a value point of view, I’m happy with a small lay on Palace.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat West Ham at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryWhu
FULHAM V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with Fulham hosting Liverpool. This is an interesting market – Liverpool are the shortest price of the day but what makes the market interesting is that Fulham have been very good at home this season. Watching Fulham at home and away this season has been like watching two different teams, but you can’t knock their home performances. Nevertheless, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.59 with Fulham 5.6 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. It’s been a terrible run for Liverpool recently, and they need a win here just to steady the ship. Their loss last weekend an Anfield against Crystal Palace came out of nowhere and although they gave it a good go against Atalanta on Thursday night, there was no coming back from a 3-0 loss in the first leg. It felt like Liverpool’s season fell apart within a week, but with Manchester City in FA Cup action this weekend, Liverpool just have to win all their games now and see what happens – there could be drama in the title race yet! Given Liverpool arrive into this fixture after some poor results, Fulham will fancy their chances with home advantage.
Being at home has been absolutely key to Fulham this season; their xG figures really highlight that. Away from home they have been very poor at the back; they are conceding an average xG of 1.72. At home they have an average xG created of 1.55 and they are far more solid at the back too. They have shown enough to suggest that they can be a handful for Liverpool here. I feel we’ll see a very open and end-to-end game here, and there are a couple of options. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.57 with Over 2.5 goals at 1.45. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, while I know Liverpool kept a clean sheet on Thursday night – Atalanta’s only goal there was getting through the game having had a 3-0 lead. I’d expect a more open game here and Liverpool always tend to concede chances anyway. I’m happy with a position on Both Teams To Score at 1.57.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulLvp
