THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between CRYSTAL PALACE v ASTON VILLA, TOTTENHAM v WOLVES, WEST BROM v LIVERPOOL and EVERTON v SHEFFIELD UNITED all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
12pm As we come to the end of the Premier League season, we’re now at that section of the season where some games are massive and some are meaningless. Even though some games are meaningless, they are still fascinating from a betting point of view as we try to judge how teams will play under no pressure. This is one of those games as we start the day with Crystal Palace take on Aston Villa. After picking up a win against Sheffield United last weekend, Crystal Palace dropped back to their losing ways with a 3-1 loss against Southampton. They didn’t play that bad, but it just fits in with the way they are finishing the season. Villa played out a pretty boring 0-0 draw with Everton and a draw was a fair result. They haven’t been the same side without Grealish.
These are the type of games where you want to keep stakes low, unless a bet really jumps off the page and offers a lot of value. I feel Villa can win here, but they have finished the season slowly and have nothing to play for. That being said, Palace are a very limited side and Villa are too big at 2.38 to ignore. I would also be interesting in backing over 2.5 goals at around 2.0, but Palace do struggle in front of goal so the game would have to be very open. I wouldn’t rule out an open game given neither side have anything to lose, but the Villa bet offers more value than over 2.5 goals.
The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace at 2.38 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrlast
MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last 12 home league games against Aston Villa (W6 D5), going down 0-1 in December 2014.
● Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Crystal Palace since the 1980-81 season, when the Villans last won the top-flight title.
● Crystal Palace have only conceded five goals in their last 15 home league games against Aston Villa and never more than once in a game in this run. Indeed, the last time the Villans scored more than once in an away league game against the Eagles was in December 1968, a 2-4 defeat in the second tier.
● Aston Villa have won two of their four Premier League games in London this season (D1 L1), winning 3-0 away at both Fulham and Arsenal. They last won more top-flight games in the capital in a single campaign back in 2008-09 (3).
● Crystal Palace have scored just two goals in their last six home Premier League matches (W1 D2 L3), with the Eagles scoring the fewest home goals in the division since the start of last season among the 17 teams to feature in both seasons (31).
● Aston Villa have won all three away Premier League matches played on a Sunday this season, scoring seven times and conceding none – prior to this run, they had gone 20 away top-flight Sunday matches without winning between September 2011 and July 2020 (D6 L14).
● Aston Villa have won eight away Premier League matches this season, as many as they managed in their previous three seasons in the top-flight. They last won more in a season back in 2009-10 under Martin O’Neill (9).
● Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has won more Premier League matches against Aston Villa than any other opponent (8), winning six of his eight home Premier League encounters with the Villans (D1 L1).
● Since leaving Aston Villa, Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke is yet to score against them in the Premier League in four games, attempting 10 shots without scoring. He has only had more shots against Man City (22), Watford (18) and Fulham (14) in the Premier League without scoring than versus his former side Villa.
● Aston Villa’s Anwar El Ghazi has scored six goals in 13 away Premier League appearances this season, only netting more away league goals in one season in his professional career, scoring seven in 2015-16 in the Eredivisie for Ajax.
TOTTENHAM V WOLVES
2.05pm This is a fascinating fixture. Neither side have had the season they wanted, and Spurs have the very big risk of missing out on European football altogether. Harry Kane has already hinted he will leave if they don’t have Champions League football; however it’s hard to know what to make of that because it was always unlikely they would finish in the Top Four. It’s been an odd time for Spurs to be fair, they won’t be getting a new manager since sacking Jose Mourinho and they’re performances haven’t changed dramatically since he was sacked. Given it came only days before the League Cup Final, you’d assume he lost the dressing room but the performances afterwards haven’t suggested that in my opinion.
Wolves haven’t been at their best this season, you only have to look at their position in the table to see that, but even so the 1.58 on Spurs feels very short. I felt the 4-0 loss against Burnley was the first sign that Wolves were “on the beach early” as they say, but credit to them they have bounced back with a draw and a win. Perhaps a draw against West Brom was a little disappointing, but they played well against Brighton last weekend and kept them to an xG of 0.37 which is very good considering Brighton are excellent going forward. Spurs can outclass this Wolves side, but the 1.58 is way too short for me and I have to lay Spurs from a value point of view. I fully expect the game to be closer than those odds reflect.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Wolves at 1.58 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotwlv
MATCH STATS
● Tottenham Hotspur have lost three of their six home Premier League games against Wolves (50%), only losing a higher percentage of home games against Nottingham Forest in the competition (60%).
● Wolves have won their last two away Premier League matches against Spurs and have won three there in total, their joint-most on the road against an opponent in the competition, along with West Ham United.
● Spurs have lost 11 Premier League matches this season, as many as they lost in 2019-20. Five of those defeats have been by 2+ goals, their most in a season since 2014-15 (also 5).
● Wolves have won three of their last five Premier League matches (D1 L1), as many as they managed in their previous 17 such games (W3 D6 L8).
● Spurs haven’t lost any of their last 19 home Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the bottom half of the league (W15 D4) since losing 1-0 to Newcastle United back in August 2019.
● Since they returned to the Premier League in 2018-19, only Manchester United have won more points from losing positions than Wolves (51), coming from behind to beat Brighton and Hove Albion in their last match.
● Wolves manager Nuno Espírito Santo has won his first two away Premier League matches against Spurs – a win here would see him become the first manager in Premier League history to win his first three away matches against Spurs.
● Under manager Nuno Espírito Santo, 87 of Wolves’ 133 Premier League goals have been scored in the second half (65.4%) – this is the highest percentage of goals scored in the second half for any manager to have seen 100+ goals scored in their favour in Premier League history.
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-Min has been directly involved in four goals in three Premier League appearances under Ryan Mason (3 goals, 1 assist), scoring in each of his last three matches. He has only netted in four consecutive Premier League appearances once previously, doing so in April 2017.
● Wolves winger Adama Traoré has been involved in four goals in his last six Premier League appearances (2 goals, 2 assists) following a run in which he didn’t score or assist in 35 consecutive games. All seven of his Premier League goals have been scored in the second half, the most of any player to never score in the first half of a match.
WEST BROM V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm It’s been an excellent week for Liverpool and they are right back in the mix for the Top Four after beating Manchester United on Thursday night. The market is expecting an easy win here, with Jurgen Klopp’s men trading as short as 1.24 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s fair to say anything bar a Liverpool win would be a shock, but West Brom have been playing with a bit more freedom since getting relegated and Big Sam does love an upset against the big boys. Although Arsenal beat West Brom 3-1 in their last game, West Brom actually played very well – they finished with a higher xG and they were unlucky to lose. It’s not unreasonable to suggest they are playing their best football of the season at the moment.
West Brom’s best is still unlikely to get a result against Liverpool, but I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on 1.24. Liverpool are playing much better football recently, and they did create an xG of 3.73 against Man Untied on Thursday but you don’t have to go back far to see draws with the likes of Newcastle and Leeds. That being said, I’m happy to avoid the Liverpool lay here. I feel we’ll have a pretty open game – West Brom have attacked a lot lately and they have no reason to sit back here. Over 2.5 goals is priced low because the market is expecting a lot of goals from Liverpool, and I much prefer Both Teams To Score at 1.9. Liverpool have made enough errors at the back to suggest West Brom can score, and they have been in good form lately so they can get on the score sheet even if it does finished 3-1 or 4-1 to Liverpool.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.9 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbaliv
MATCH STATS
● Six of the last eight Premier League encounters between West Brom and Liverpool have ended as a draw, with Liverpool winning the other two during the 2016-17 season.
● Since losing three in a row between April 2012 and February 2013, Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches against West Brom (W4 D7).
● West Bromwich Albion have lost their last 17 top-flight home league matches against the reigning champions by an aggregate score of 44-9. Their last win at the Hawthorns over the reigning champion was in 1980-81 against Liverpool.
● In the reverse fixture at Anfield, West Brom completed just 121 passes – 23 fewer than Liverpool midfielder Jordan Henderson managed on his own (144).
● Liverpool have only won one of their five league matches against the three newly promoted teams this season (D3 L1). Should they fail to win this game, it would be the first time since 1980-81 they’ve only registered one win against newly promoted teams in a season, with that Liverpool team also the last reigning champion to win only one game against newly promoted teams in a top-flight season.
● West Brom lost their first four home Premier League matches under Sam Allardyce by an aggregate score of 17-0 but have lost just one of their subsequent seven under the former England boss (W2 D4), conceding just five times.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 30 goals in 41 Premier League appearances on Sundays for the club (23 goals, 7 assists), with only Steven Gerrard (72), Robbie Fowler (31) and Daniel Sturridge (31) involved in more goals on a Sunday for Liverpool.
● West Brom manager Sam Allardyce is unbeaten in his last five Premier League meetings with Liverpool (W1 D4) – the last manager to go six unbeaten against the Reds was Tony Pulis between 2011 and 2016 (8 in a row), whose sixth game in that run was a match at the Hawthorns as West Brom manager.
● Among all managers Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp has faced at least five times in his league managerial career, only against Bert van Marwijk (0%) and Lorenz-Günther Köstner (14%) does Klopp have a lower win ratio than he does against Sam Allardyce (17% – P6 W1).
● West Brom defender Semi Ajayi netted his first Premier League goal against Liverpool in this season’s reverse fixture – the last Baggies player to score home and away against the Reds in a single season was Romelu Lukaku in 2012-13.
EVERTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED
7pm We finish the weekend in the Premier League with Everton taking on Sheffield United. This is a must win game for Everton if they’re going to have any chance of European football this season. It must be very frustrating for their fans this season as they have blown a lot of chances to get into a strong position. When they beat Liverpool they looked likely to challenge for a Top Four spot at least, now they’re going to miss out on the Europa League and they only have themselves to blame looking at the table. They dropped further points midweek away to Aston Villa, although I was happy to lay them that evening. Against Sheffield United here they simply have to win – there’s no excuses against Sheffield United.
Although Everton should win, you wouldn’t exactly be excited about backing them at 1.42. I don’t trust them enough to take those odds. That being said, they look a likely team for any BETDAQ Multiples this weekend as Sheffield United look to have given up on the season. They have been woeful since losing out in the FA Cup, and even in their recent win over Brighton they were very lucky to win 1-0 – they conceded an xG of 1.96. Although Sheffield United have seen goals in their games, they haven’t been scoring and Everton have been keeping things pretty tight. Under 2.5 goals looks the value here at 2.02 as I would have it odds on looking at the xG figures.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQeveshu
MATCH STATS
● Everton are looking to complete their first league double over Sheffield United since the 1972-73 campaign.
● Sheffield United have won four of their last six away league games against Everton, including a 2-0 victory in this exact fixture last season.
● Everton have won their last two league games against Sheffield United, as many as they had in their previous 12 against the Blades (D4 L6).
● Since the Premier League resumed in June last season, Sheffield United have collected just six points from a possible 69 in away Premier League matches (W1 D3 L19), losing their last seven on the road by an aggregate score of 17-1 since beating Manchester United 2-1 at Old Trafford in January.
● Everton have lost eight home league matches this season, only losing nine in four seasons in their entire history – 1912-13, 1947-48, 1950-51 and 1993-94.
● Sheffield United have lost 28 Premier League matches this season and defeat in this match would see them equal the record number of defeats by a team in a Premier League season: Ipswich Town in 1994-95, Sunderland in 2005-06 and Derby County in 2007-08 all lost 29 games.
● Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has lost nine home league matches as Toffees boss in 27 matches at Goodison Park – he has only lost more with one club, losing 17 with AC Milan, although he managed more than five times as many home games with them than he has Everton (142).
● In the top four tiers of English football, Paul Heckingbottom is winless in his last 14 away league matches in charge (D2 L12) across three different teams – Barnsley, Leeds United and Sheffield United – with his last such win coming on New Year’s Day 2018 against Sunderland as Barnsley manager in the Championship.
● Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin – who played 12 times in all competitions for Sheffield United without scoring between April 2015 and August 2016 – has scored 16 Premier League goals this season without registering an assist; only Benni McCarthy in 2006-07 for Blackburn Rovers has scored more times without assisting a goal in a season in the competition (18 goals).
● Sheffield United goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale is the only Blades player to feature in all 28 Premier League defeats this season – a defeat here would see him equal the record for most defeats by a player in a single season in the competition, held by Dean Whitehead in 2005-06 for Sunderland (29 in 37 games). It would also see him lose his 50th Premier League match in just his 73rd appearance, the earliest a player has ever lost 50 games, with Whitehead also holding that record (50th defeat in 78th appearance).
